Michael Pineda- The return of Michael Pineda for the New York Yankees has been a welcome surprise both for the Bronx Bombers and fantasy owners through his first two starts of 2014. Pineda has shown the same elite strike out potential that made him a most own in early 2011. With a 26.1% K Rate and a 4.4% BB Rate, Pineda has been masterful to begin the season. There are some concerning trends though to be aware of when considering how to manage Pineda moving forward. During his stint with the Mariners, Pineda was extremely fly ball prone (44.8% Fly Ball Rate). Through his first two starts, he is even more fly ball prone in 2014 with a 51.6% rate. In Yankee Stadium and the AL East as a whole, a high fly ball rate normally equals balls leaving the yard (See In Re: Hughes, Phil). Additionally, Pineda is seeing a decrease in velocity from his 2011 season. During 2011, Pineda was sitting at 94.7 MPH on his fastball. This season that has regressed to 92.5 MPH. It is obviously still early, and there is plenty of time for the velocity to build back-up for a young pitcher. Even given the time frame, the large difference is concerning. Pineda is throwing his cutter almost 30% of the time when he threw the pitch less than 5% of the time in 2011 so it may be that we are just seeing a different pitcher in 2014. It may also be that his shoulder injury has affected the way he has to compete. In either case, a decreased velocity and high fly ball rate are both red flags worth paying attention to. I'm not saying put Pineda on the market immediately as his K Rate is just too enticing to let walk, but pay attention to his next few starts closely. The more balls hit in the air, the more likely it is that those balls will begin leaving the bandbox stadiums in his division.
Alexei Ramirez- Few players in the game have started out hotter than Alexei Ramirez in 2014. With a batting average in excess of .400, a K Rate of just over 5% and 3 steals and 3 home runs in 13 games, Ramirez looks like an early favorite for steal of the draft season. He also looks like someone who should be sold high as soon as possible. In his age 33 season, there is no reason to believe these numbers bear out anything more than a fast start. Ramirez's early season BABIP of .409 is .100 points higher than his 2013 number (which was already slightly higher than his three year average) so the batting average should regress fairly quickly. In the past 3 seasons, Ramirez's power has been decreasing substantially (15 HR in 2011, 9 HR in 2012 and 6 HR in 2013). There is really no reason to believe a 33 year old has finally found his power stroke, particularly a 33 year old with a 55.3% Ground Ball Rate and a 27.7% Fly Ball Rate. Both of these measurements are supported by the larger sample size of his 2013 season, and both measurements support his three year tendency towards increased ground balls and decreased fly balls. Combine all of that with an unrealistically high 23.1% HR/FB rate, which seems to be a number generated, much like his BABIP, on a small sample size, and you are left with the inescapable conclusion that Ramirez will regress substantially from the player we have seen in the first two weeks. Sell high friends, sell high.
Nelson Cruz- Nelson Cruz has been one of the more consistent assets in fantasy baseball since 2009. Cruz, even in seasons shortened by injury or suspension, has managed in excess of 20 home runs while keeping his average somewhere in the .260 range and providing a solid RBI contributor for fantasy owners. Everything in his early season work suggests that Cruz will continue down this path in 2014 for the Baltimore Orioles. Cruz's early season .294 BABIP is in line with his previous three seasons as his .222 ISO, and in fact, Cruz has struck out less (17.8%) to begin this season than is traditional and is walking more (11.8%) than he has since 2008. Obviously, all stats given during the beginning of the season come with our patented small sample size disclaimer, but so far so good for Mr. Cruz. His contact rates are within reason of his career averages, and as long as he is healthy, I think we can expect a season very similar to his 2012 campaign, which is a very productive and helpful fantasy outfielder.
Robinson Cano- Where has the power gone? That is the question that just about everyone in baseball is asking about Robinson Cano through the first 12 games of the season. The beginning of Cano's first campaign as the Mariners new multi-million dollar man has gone to form but for a complete and utter lack of any conceivable power. His 11.3% BB Rate is terrific and somewhat supported by slight increases in plate patience over the course of the past two seasons, which could also be attributed to teams giving Cano less hittable pitches as his reputation has grown. His 11.3% K Rate is in line with his past seasons, but his batted ball data in the early going has been a bit one sided with a 61.0% Ground Ball Rate to a 19.5% Fly Ball Rate. To be perfectly frank, this situation just won't continue. Nothing in his larger sample size history points towards these numbers being anything but a small sample size aberration. I'm holding tight on Cano everywhere I own him, and if we hit another week with little power production, I will start low balling his owners in hopes of catching someone in a panic. Some owners will invariably believe that the move to Seattle has in some way sapped all of Cano's power. You should find these owners, feed fire to their overzealous imaginations and try to sneak away with Cano on the cheap.
Carlos Santana- Carlos Santana's start to the season has been one of the stranger in baseball. Santana, who is already one of the most patient hitters in the sport, has somehow walked 14 times in 57 Plate Appearances (a ridiculous 24.6% for you math majors out there). He has done this while also reducing his K Rate to a fairly fantastic 12.3%. Despite ridiculous plate patience, Santana has spent the better part of the first twelve games beating the ball into the ground every time he makes contact. A 52.8% Ground Ball Rate, .047 ISO and .222 BABIP have lead to many fantasy owners (including yours truly) cursing at their computer/television screens. Luckily enough, very little in his history supports any of these numbers, which means they are most likely all products of that lovely small sample size. It also means that Santana is a prime buy low target for me if you can convince his owner's that the sky is falling. I see an age 28 player with superior plate patience and a history of being able to slug. I'm holding or buying Santana everywhere and I would suggest you do the same before he breaks out in a big way.
Today's American League Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas @NRoss56 on Twitter.
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