David Murphy (OF - CLE). Murphy signed with Cleveland as a free agent after a horribly disappointing final season in Texas, in which Murphy slashed a weak .220/.282/.374. Murphy should post better numbers in 2014, given that his BA was dragged down by a .227 BABIP, which was almost 80 points lower than his career rate. Murphy's other peripherals (12.4% K rate, .154 ISO, 19.3 line drive % and 9.2% HR/FB rate) were generally in line with his career numbers, so his results in 2013 can be summed up simply as bad luck on balls in play. While some improvement can therefore be expected in Murphy's 2014 results (we project him to hit .275/.345/.443 with 14 HR and 70 RBI), there are several warning signs that should temper enthusiasm for Murphy. One is the apparent disappearance of his speed game (10 SBs in 2012 and only 1 in 2013), coupled with the fact that he will now be playing for a manager who ranks as one of the more conservative with respect to the run game. Another is the fact that he is moving to a less hitter-favorable home park. Finally, Murphy is expected to platoon with Ryan Raburn in the Indian outfield and, although he will be on the strong side of the platoon, this will limit his counting stat production. All-in-all Murphy is probably not draft-worthy in mixed leagues, although he should be considered in AL-only and extremely deep mixed leagues.
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS - CLE). Cabrera will be an interesting case study in 2014. Is he the player who slashed .273/.332/.460 with 25 HR in 2011 or the one who fell off to .242/.299/.402 in 2013. The answer is probably somewhere in between. Cabrera's 2011 power numbers were the result of a likely unrepeatable 13.3% HR/FB rate (the only time Cabrera has exceeded a 10% rate in his career. On the other hand, Cabrera's BA in 2013 was suppressed by a .283 BABIP, which is 30 points lower than his career average. What, then, to expect in 2014? We project Cabrera to post a .265/.317/.442 line in 2014, with 16 HR and 10 SB. There is the possibility that Cabrera could post even better power numbers, though. He has shown a steadily increasing FB rate over the last three years and even a slight uptick in HR/FB rate could add 2 or 3 HR to Cabrera's total. Cabrera's counting stats in 2013 were also negatively impacted by the fact that he missed almost a month with a torn quad muscle. Given the relative dearth of power at the SS position, Cabrera is an attractive target after the elite shortstop options are off the board and could in fact be a bargain given his current 15.04 ADP.
Justin Ruggiano (OF - CHC). Ruggiano appears to be the current favorite for the starting CF job with the Cubs. Despite a down year with the Marlins in 2013, Ruggiano's power speed combo makes him a sneaky source of late round value, particularly if your opponents overemphasize the negative in Ruggiano's 2013 stats (which were certainly bad - .222/.298/396 slash line). Despite these brutal numbers, however, Ruggiano did manage to hit 18 HR (while playing half his games in one of the most, if not the most, pitcher favorable stadiums in the major leagues) and steal 15 bases. Further, Ruggiano suffered some bad luck on balls in play, with a .260 BABIP. While he's not going to hit .313 again (his 2012 BA was supported by a .401 BABIP), if he can win the CF job, he could post a 20/20 season with a .250 BA, and that would be enough to provide mixed league value, at least in formats that play 5 OFs. As of this writing, Ruggiano is hitting .450 with 2 HR and 8 RBI, which bodes well for his chances to win the full-time CF job. Considering he can be had for virtually nothing (37.01 ADP), Ruggiano is someone to keep an eye on as an end=game option.
Devin Mesoraco (C - CIN). While widely viewed as a disappointment, Mesoraco offers some intrigue in 2 catcher leagues as a possible post-hype sleeper. The departure of Dusty Baker, with his notorious distaste for playing young players, can only be viewed as a positive for Mesoraco, and, indeed, Baker's replacement as Reds manager, Byran Price, has already indicated that Mesoraco will be the Reds' first-string catcher in 2014. Although Mesoraco's overall 2014 numbers are less than overwhelming, his peripherals indicate that some improvement will be forthcoming in 2014. Mesoraco's average was suppressed by a .264 BABIP (which is low even given Mesoraco's status as a catcher, especially in light of Mesoraco's 21.1% LD rate) and some average improvement over his .238 BA should be expected. The additional playing time should also result in an increase in counting stats. We're projecting Mesoraco to post a .248/.302/.404 line in 2014 with 17 HR and 61 RBI. Such numbers would make Mesoraco worthy of consideration as a second catcher, especially given his 23.12 ADP.
Roberto Hernandez (SP - PHI). The artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona is in camp with the Phillies, hoping to win a job at the back end of the Philadelphia rotation (with Cole Hamels' injury, Hernandez is currently projected to start the season as the Phillies' fourth starter). With his move to the NL, Hernandez has possibly reached the verge of mixed-league relevancy, as his underlying stats from 2013 indicate that there may be some sleeper potential here. Although his ERA (4.89) and WHIP (1.34) were below average, Hernandez did show some encouraging signs, increasing his K/9 from 5.20 in 2011 (his last full season with the Indians) to 6.74, while maintaining an elite 53.2% GB rate. If Hernandez can maintain his K rate gains (which seems likely, given his move to the NL), he could post a considerably lower ERA (possibly along of the lines of the 3.60 xFIP he posted in 2013. So far this spring, the signs are encouraging, as Hernandez has posted a 2.03 ERA in 13.1 innings with a 9:4 K:BB ratio. I wouldn't invest too heavily in Hernandez, as his numbers could be hurt by pitching in a hitters' park in front of a somewhat suspect infield defense, but he could provide good value as a sixth starter in an NL only or deep mixed league.
Brett Anderson (SP-COL). After several injury-filled seasons in Oakland, the A's finally gave up on Anderson, trading him to the Rockies. While the destination was not an advantageous one for Anderson's fantasy prospects, Anderson's 2013 numbers do indicate that Anderson could have some appeal in NL-only or extremely deep mixed leagues. There was an extreme divergence between Anderson's actual results and his peripherals in 2013. In 44.2 innings (split between starting and the bullpen), Anderson posted a 9.27 K/9 rate, a 62.9% GB rate, a 3.85 FIP and a 3.26 xFIP. You would think that those numbers, albeit in a small sample size, would have resulted in a successful season for Anderson. However, nothing could have been further from the truth, as Anderson posted a 6.04 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP, numbers which likely contributed to the A's decision to part ways with him. However, even pitching half his games in Colorado, Anderson (subject to the annual caveat of him staying healthy) could provide decent value as a back-end starter. Anderson suffered from extreme bad luck in 2013, with a .359 BABIP, 61.5% strand rate and 17.9% HR/FB rate inflating his numbers. Further, Anderson's extreme ground-ball tendencies (GB rates of 57.5%, 59.8% and 62.9% in the last three years) and typically (2013 notwithstanding) low HR/FB rates, make him better-suited than many pitchers to possibly succeed in Coors Field. While he is unlikely to match his 2013 K rate (which was likely inflated by the fact that a number of his appearances came out of the bullpen), our projection is for Anderson to post solid 2014 numbers (3.56 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and a 1.26 WHIP). Anderson is off to a good start in spring training in Arizona (which is generally a hitter-favorable environment), posting a 1.80 ERA and a 5:1 K:BB ratio over his first 10 spring innings. Assuming, again, that he can stay healthy, Anderson makes for a good late-round target as a SP6 in deeper mixed formats.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Jake Marisnick (OF-MIA). Marisnick had 3 hits (all singles) in 5 ABs against the Astros on Tuesday. The effort raised his spring average to .375, with 3 SBs in 32 ABs. Marisnick may be playing himself into the starting CF role for the Marlins, who seem to be souring a bit on Marcell Ozuna, who is batting only .135 so far this spring. If he wins the job, Marisnick could produce double digit HR and SB totals, although he is unlikely to help in the BA category (he hit only .183 in his cup of coffee with the Marlins in 2013, although that number was dragged down by a .232 BABIP). Although he would undoubtedly benefit from more seasoning in the minors, Marisnick would be worthy of consideration in NL-only leagues if is able to secure a starting job.
Alfonso Soriano (OF-NYY). Soriano homered and drove in four runs in a win over the Red Sox on Tuesday. This was a welcome breakout for Soriano, who entered the game hitting .200/.238/.200 in 20 spring at bats. Soriano could be a relatively cheap source of power in 2014, as we currently project him to hit 28 bombs (which may be conservative, given that he will be playing a full season in Yankee stadium). One thing to keep in mind, though, is that it appears that he will be hitting sixth in the Yankee order (behind McCann and Teixeira, neither of whom is exactly fleet of foot), so his RBI totals could suffer.
Anibal Sanchez (SP-DET). Sanchez will rest for three days after receiving a cortisone shot in his throwing shoulder, after being scratched from his Monday start due to inflammation in the shoulder. The Tigers claim to be unconcerned, but any issue with Sanchez's shoulder has to be a little concern, given his past shoulder issues. Sanchez posted solid numbers in 2013 (2.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), which were fully supported by his peripherals (9.99 K/9, 2.39 FIP, 2.91 xFIP). Moderate regression should be expected in 2014, as Sanchez benefited from an unsustainable 5.8% HR/FB rate, but he should, assuming good health, still be able to post solid ERA and K numbers. However, I would not break the bank to acquire Sanchez, since he has had repeated issues with health in past seasons (he have never managed to crack to 200 IP mark) and the fact that he is already experiencing shoulder issues is not a good sign.
Tommy Milone (SP-OAK). With the injuries to Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin, Milone will start the season in the A's rotation. He therefore becomes worthy of consideration in AL-only and even in deeper mixed leagues. Milone's 2013 numbers were somewhat disappointing (4.14 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), but there were some signs of progress, as he increased his K/9 rate to 7.25. Unfortunately, that was accompanied by an increase in his BB/9 to 2.25. If Milone could rein in the walks a little (say back down to his 1.71 BB/9 rate of 2012), he could have sneaky value even in deep mixed leagues as a streaming option for his home starts (3.44 ERA in the Coliseum, 4.69 ERA on the road).
Drew Smyly (SP-DET). Smyly twirled 5 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on Tuesday, improving his spring ERA to 3.31 in 16.1 innings. Smyly had a fantastic season pitching out of the bullpen last year, posting a stellar 2.37 ERA (2.31 FIP), 1.04 WHIP and 27% strikeout rate. While he is unlikely to match those numbers (particularly the K%) as a member of the starting rotation, Smyly is someone to target as a possible SP5 in standard mixers, as it would not be unreasonable to expect him to put up an ERA in mid to upper 3s (3.83 FIP during his tenure as a starter in 2012), with a K% in the 22-23% range (22.6% in 2012). The major negative as far as Smyly's fantasy value is concerned is that he likely will be looking at an innings cap somewhere in the 170 range, given that his high in innings pitched so far is 125 in 2011.
Melky Cabrera (OF-TOR). Cabrera went 3-for-3 with a double against the Tigers on Tuesday, raising his spring average to .395. Cabrera is currently projected to hit second in the Blue Jays lineup (between Jose Reyes and Jose Bautista), which is certainly advantageous lineup positioning and which should boost Cabrera's run totals. Although Cabrera is unlikely to produce gaudy HR totals, we do like him to have a bounce back season in 2014, with a projected .293/.339/.438 slash line.
Ian Kinsler (2B-DET). Kinsler hit a three run HR and a double in the Tigers' rout of the Blue Jays on Tuesday. While Kinsler has been on fire this spring (.333 BA with 3 HR), he is going a little too high in drafts for my taste. I think the move to Detroit will drastically reduce Kinsler's already sagging power numbers and his SB have also been declining (from 30 in 2011 to 14 in 2013. We're projecting Kinsler for a .267 BA with 17 HR and 21 SB in 2014. With that kind of projected production, I will let someone else take Kinsler as a sixth round pick (current ADP of 6.02).
Marco Estrada (SP-MIL). Estrada dominated the Rangers on Tuesday, hurling 6 shutout innings while striking out 5. I like Estrada as a "post-sleeper sleeper" in 2014, as he was a popular sleeper last year who is viewed as having had an extremely disappointing year. However, while he is perceived as having been a disappointment, his final numbers (3.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 8.3 K/9) show that Estrada actually posted a pretty solid (if injury-interrupted) season. Assuming he can stay healthy (which, given the rate at which pitchers are going down this spring, is a big assumption), Estrada is an excellent choice as an SP5 or 6 (we project him to post a 3.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 2014).
Chase Headley (3B-SD). Headley has been cleared to participate in a minor league game on Wednesday and is expected to make his Cactus League debut on Thursday. Headley has been dealing with a strained calf, but still hopes to be ready for Opening Day. Assuming he's healthy in time for the start of the season, I like Headley as a cheaper 3B option. His perceived value seems to have plummeted in light of his disappointing and injury-plagued 2013 and, although he's not likely to repeat his 2012 numbers, we do expect him to find a happy medium between 2012 and 2013 (2014 projection of .270/.359/.438, with 20 HR and 9 SB). I would be more than happy to get that production out of a 13th round pick (current ADP is 13.08).
Coco Crisp (OF-OAK). Crisp went 3 for 3 on Tuesday against the White Sox, to raise his spring average to .357. Crisp appears determined to prove that 2013 was no fluke. However, his 22 HRs are likely not repeatable - Crisp posted a 12.4% HR/FB ratio in 2013, which is 5 points higher than his career rate. That is not to say that Crisp won't be valuable in 2014 - we project him to hit .273 with 13 HR and 30 SB, which is certainly production that can help a fantasy team.
