Colorado outfield
Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer have the corners locked up, but the battle for the center field job remains on. Drew Stubbs entered camp as the prohibitive favorite given his tools, but right now the leader has to be Corey Dickerson. Dickerson is 7-for-14 with three XBH while Stubbs is struggling to the tune of 1-for-8. Of course the typical "it's early" caveat applies here, but Dickerson has the early lead. After batting a scorching .371 in Triple-A last season, Dickerson posted a .263/.316/.459 line in Colorado, a mark that included an impressive 23 XBH (5 HR) in just 194 at-bats. We'd like to see batter than a 0.39 EYE from a leadoff man, and Dickerson's 2013 H/R splits were concerning (.231/.268/.308 away from Coors Field), but whomever wins this job is going to be the leadoff man and score a ton of runs.
Colorado rotation
As the Rockies await the arrival of Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler, two of baseball's top pitching prospects, there remains an open competition for at least one rotation spot this spring. Franklin Morales, Jordan Lyles, Juan Nicasio, Chad Bettis, etc. Could a dark horse emerge from this uninspiring bunch? It's possible, and perhaps that guy is Tyler Matzek. Matzek, a former top-10 overall draft pick of the Rockies, has seen his career nearly derailed by an inability to throw strikes. Witness a few of his BB/9 ratios prior to 2013 - 6.3, 12.6, 7.0, 6.0. Nice to see the drop in 2011 and 2012, and last year Matzek dropped that number further, down to 4.8. Unfortunately his K/9 rate also plummeted, from 9.7 to 6.0, but at least he's finding the plate. Matzek this spring has tossed five scoreless innings with a 5:2 K:BB in two appearances. If he can keep this up, Matzek may even break camp in the rotation, though he'll need several more strong outings to truly be a contender.
Padres bench
Because the Padres' projected Opening Day lineup isn't exactly loaded with future Hall-of-Famers, it's worth it to keep an eye on the rest of the squad should someone break out this spring. So far at least, that guy has been Tommy Medica. Medica already has 10 hits in 18 at-bats while striking out just one time. He's homered and doubled twice while playing mostly first base. The Padres said Thursday that they were going to get a look at Medica in the outfield, which can only help his cause to make the team should he continue to rake. Medica is a bit on the older side at 25, but in 320 at-bats last season for Double-A San Antonio, Medica hit a robust .296/.372/.582 before faring well with the Padres in 19 games - .290/.380/.449. With a biceps injury keeping Cameron Maybin out until mid-May, Medica stands a good chance at making the team and contributing.
Dodgers second base job
At this point, this is likely a battle between Alex Guerrero and Dee Gordon, with Chone Figgins and Justin Turner as more bench options. Gordon has clearly added some needed bulk and still appears to have his blazing speed, but after a hot start, he's still just 3-for-15 with a pair of triples and three stolen bases. Guerrero meanwhile is batting .294/.333/.471 after hitting a grand slam on Wednesday and as long as his defense continues to hold up, he's the favorite for the job given his $28 million contract. Gordon could still make the team as a utility guy, as he's seen some time in center field in addition to second base. Even playing 2-3 times a week would give him some NL-only value given his speed.
Giants sixth starter
As a team, the Giants Opening Day lineup and rotation appears set. There are no real position battles, as Brandon Belt should finally enter a season as an everyday player, and Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong should anchor the back end of a solid rotation. Hudson and Vogelsong though are not getting any younger, and the duo combined for just 40 starts last year, so who steps up when the inevitable injury bug strikes? Kyle Crick is easily the organizations' #1 pitching prospect, but he's yet to even hit Double-A, so don't look for Crick until later in 2015. Yusmeiro Petit is around to provide depth, and he fared well for the Giants in his 48 innings, posting a 3.56 ERA with solid component numbers - 8.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. He's a good guy to have around and should get first crack at a rotation spot should someone falter or more likely, get hurt. Another guy I'm high on is 21 year-old left-hander Edwin Escobar, who notched 10 starts at the Double-A level last year after being promoted mid-season. He posted an excellent 10.2 K/9 last season while continuing to improve his control with a 2.1 BB/9. Ideally he'd spend most of 2014 gaining additional experience in the minors, but he could be rushed mid-year if needed.
Padres Closer
Huston Street has the pedigree and as a result, the early line on this job, but the Padres didn't give Joaquin Benoit a two-year $15.5 million deal for nothing. Benoit may very well open as the team's setup man as long as Street is healthy, but if y0ou're making a list of non-closer relievers, Benoit should be near the top of that list. Street has managed at last 20 saves in each of the last five seasons, but he's already dealing with a groin injury and has had issues with his health in recent seasons. Benoit meanwhile has tossed at least 61 innings in each of the last four seasons and had a 2.01 ERA last year. He's also a K/9 guy and has solid control, and in Petco Park, a sub-2.00 ERA with a 9.5 K/9 is very doable. He could lead the team in saves easily.
Marcus Stroman (SP-TOR) - Stroman is reportedly a candidate for one of the Blue Jays' rotation spots. He's one of the team's top prospects, so this is sometime worth monitoring. Stroman posted a 3.30 EA to go with an impressive 10.4 K/9 last year in Double-A, and he's always been known for his solid control (2.2 BB/9 last year). Stroman has pitched just two innings this spring, but look for him to be stretched a bit over future appearances with guys like J.A. Happ (40.50 ERA, injured), Brandon Morrow (10.80 ERA), and Kyle Drabek (15.00 ERA) all off to slow starts.
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B - STL) - As I type this, Carpenter and the Cardinals are closing in on a five or six-year contract extension. The Cards seem to have good luck with guys named Carpenter, so this should work out just fine, right? Carpenter finished fourth in the NL MVP voting a year ago, batting a solid .318/.381/.481 in 157 games while leading the league in runs, hits, and doubles. Carpenter though hit just 11 home runs, so to take that next step to being an elite third baseman (he's moving there this year), some of those 55 doubles are going to have to travel a bit further going forward. Just 6.1% of his fly balls went for home runs, so there's some possibility that if he can move the needle closer to 10% there, that will help. A 34% FB% is a little low, but Paul Goldschmidt checked in at 34.6% himself and his power is just fine. I think Carpenter can easily hit 15 this year, but if puts perhaps a little more bulk on his 6'3" frame, it's possible we could see more in the 20 range this year, making him a borderline second-round pick.
Oscar Taveras (OF-STL) - I'm getting a lot of Taveras questions this spring, so let's take a look at the talented prospect a bit here. Taveras of course suffered a serious ankle injury last year that just about wiped out his entire season. Thursday it was reported that he has "amped up" his workouts, particular his running, sliding, stopping/starting, etc. in an effort to really test the ankle post-surgery. That may be the last step before he's ready to start appearing in Grapefruit League boxscores, and those games should be must-watch games for fantasy owners. Remember, this is a guy who batted .321/.380/.572 as a 20 year-old in Double-A back in 2012, and that is rarely done. We know Matt Holliday and Allen Craig are locked in as OF/1B options, but Taveras could easily beat out Matt Adams (Craig to 1B) for a starting slot, and even Peter Bourjos is no lock to in an everyday job, though surely the Cardinals would prefer to not stretch Taveras physically by slotting him in center field. I can easily see Taveras breaking camp with the club in a significant role, but let's see how his first few games go first.
Ervin Santana (SP-FA) - At this point I'm 90% sure that Santana is going to sign before the season-opener rather than try and wait until after the June draft. At that point of course, a team signing Santana would not have to forfeit a draft pick to obtain his services. The front-runner at this point has to be the Baltimore Orioles, a team that has already surrendered its first two draft picks by signing Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz. What's one more pick? Fantasy-wise, this won't be a good thing for Santana's value. Camden Yards was more of a home run park last year than such band boxes as Rangers Ballpark in Texas and Coors Field. Santana specializes in the long ball, having posted a whopping 1.97 HR/9 rate in 2012 before dropping to a still high 1.11 last season to lower his career mark to 1.22. He did a much better job last year in keeping the ball on the ground with a career-best 46.2% GB%, but landing in the AL East just doesn't seem like it would benefit his fantasy owners. Cross your fingers if you're an owner and hope that he signs in Seattle, another rumored destination.
Justin Morneau (1B-COL) - Morneau in Colorado sounds like fantasy gold, but one has to wonder how he'll hold up. He's already dealing with a stiff neck this spring, and though he did manage to play in 152 games last year, Morneau did not manage a single home run with the Pirates in his 77 NL at-bats last year. Maybe now that he's settled in a hitter's park, that will change, but I still wouldn't expect more than 15 and maybe 20 home runs. We just have to hope also that he's truly free of the concussions.
Aaron Hicks (OF-MIN) - Hicks is an interesting fantasy guy as sort of a post-hype sleeper this year. He's also a cautionary tale for not putting too much stock into spring training performances, as Hicks surprisingly won the center field job last spring after batting .370 and even homering three times in one game. When the games started counting, Hicks batted just .192/.259/.338 with a 26.8% K% before he was sent down. He did hit eight homers and steal nine bases in exactly half a big league season, so there is definite 20/20 upside here, but he was clearly rushed last year. Hicks had an .841 OPS and 32 steals in Double-A back in 2012, so don't write him off just yet. He's probably behind Alex Presley on the CF depth chart for now, and he'll soon have Byron Buxton to compete with, but Hicks with a strong spring could win the job yet again.
Peter Bourjos (OF-STL) - Bourjos is another St. Louis outfielder, along with John Jay and Oscar Taveras, battling to separate from the pack this spring. The Cardinals want him to win an everyday job for his glove work alone, but he's going to have to hit. He's also going to have to stay healthy, as Bourjos is already dealing with a leg injury this spring and has a history of hamstring woes. Given 550 PA's, Bourjos has the potential to hit in the .280 range with 10 home runs and 30 stolen bases, but his MLB career EYE is just 0.25, so he's probably going to be hitting at or near the bottom of the order, minimizing his SB opportunities. I just don't see him worth rostering in a 12-team mixed league at this point.
Billy Hamilton (OF-CIN) - I'm probably going to be writing a lot about Hamilton this year, as along with guys like Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig, there are few players that I go out of my way to specifically watch for the potential to see something special every time they come to the plate. Hamilton is 5-for-12 (.417 AVG) already this spring and he's drawn a pair of walks to clock in with a .500 OBP. If Hamilton can lead off and find his way on base even 33% of the time, 75 steals appears to be his floor. He's that fast. Continue to monitor his progress at the plate this spring, but early returns are very promising.
Nate Jones (RP-CHW) - With Addison Reed having been shipped to Arizona over the offseason, Jones is the early favorite to serve as the Chicago closer. He should make his spring debut this week after missing the first part of camp with a minor gluteal strain. Jones can, as they say, "bring it". His fastball the past two years has averaged 97.6 and 97.7 mph and though he can improve this pitch, his slider is a pretty solid secondary offering. Jones isn't an elite control artist, but he did improve his control year-over-year, posting a 2013 BB/9 of 3.0 versus a prior-year mark of 4.0. He also increased his GB% five percentage points while generating far more swings and misses. Jones will win this job and considering he'll come off the board after the elite closers, should be Exhibit A why you don't chase closers until later in the draft.
Jayson Werth (OF-WAS) - I always like to look at prior-year second half performance in setting my draft boards. It's just one more data point, with the theory that if a guy had a great first half compared to an average or even mediocre first half, that we should place more emphasis on the most recent set of data. Werth had a solid year overall in 2013, posting a .930 OPS, but his second-half was even more impressive - .339/.432/.600. It's safe to say that he's settled nicely after signing that surprising seven-year $126 million deal three offseasons ago. I'm going target Werth in many leagues this month.
