SEATTLE MARINERS
Abraham Almonte - Almonte has somehow moved his way into the discussion for the starting CF job, and now that value that I hinted at a month ago doesn't necessarily have to wait for the inevitable Hart or Morrison injury. Almonte still has a ton of contact issues, but he could certainly be a part of any "punt AVG" strategy as a potential 15/30 OF. I think he'll be able to pick up 250-300 AB at a minimum regardless of whether he wins the job right out of spring due to the fragility of his OF mates, making him a reasonable late-game selection in deeper leagues already. If he wins the job over the next week, his viability increases to leagues of moderate depth or greater.
Roenis Elias - The (hopefully) short-term injuries to Iwakuma and Walker have created some space in the Mariner rotation for a couple of weeks, and an interesting name that has come up as a possible fill-in is Cuban defector Roenis Elias. Elias is a tall, thin lefty with improving velocity, spotty control, and a huge curveball. He's improved a bit during each move up the ladder in Seattle's system, and he's had a nice enough spring (while Beavan, Wolf, and Baker haven't impressed that much) to move into the mix for the spot. Most importantly, James Paxton is no lock to remain in the rotation long-term either....he just appears to have locked up the number 3 spot out of spring training. This isn't necessarily just a three-start audition with an imminent move to AAA, although that's the likely outcome for the arms involved. Elias is still enough of a question mark that he's a late-game flyer at best, but there does appear to be potential here.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Jason Kubel - It's looking more and more like Jason Kubel will be the primary DH when the Twins break camp and head north. It has to be frustrating to be a Twins fan. Find a young hidden gem at C in Josmil Pinto? Let's sign Kurt Suzuki, who hasn't slugged .400 since 2009, to block him for another season. Sneak a youngish 1B/OF (Chris Colabello) with power out of the indy leagues? Let's pull Jason Kubel off the shelf, dust him off, and let him prove that last year wasn't the end of the line. This offense wasn't going to be a good one, not yet anyway, but these types of moves make it less likely they'll approach league-average. Kubel looked completely done last year with the bottom falling out of his contact rate (down to 70%) and a complete disappearance of his power, and now he's going to a much tougher hitting environment in Minnesota. Sure, he's just one year removed from a 30-HR season, but the two worst seasons of his career in terms of swinging strike% have now come back-to-back at age 30 and 31. I've got to think that Colabello will offer more at this point, but he seems to have an uphill climb just to make the roster. Kubel doesn't do much for me outside of AL-only formats.
Aaron Hicks - I didn't expect this a month ago, but after a solid spring and on the strength of his defensive chops as much as anything, it looks like Aaron Hicks will once again open up the season as the starting CF for the twins. Hicks was a big-time draft darling last year, but the luster wore off quickly during a 3-63 start to the season that had him back in the minors by early June. Hicks is still just 24, and that enticing power/speed combination is still in existence, but there's a lot less press surrounding him this season. If you liked him last year, you can still like him this year....the warts are the same (overly patient at the plate primarily, as the contact rate was approaching 80%) and the glimmer of potential is still there. His biggest problem last year appeared to be a lack of experience, something that last year's half-season can only help. I'm warming up to the idea that he can be a later-round sleeper in deep leagues, as he's perfectly capable of 15 HR and 30 SB if he can hit enough to hold onto the job.
ATLANTA BRAVES
Freddy Garcia - Every time I want to dismiss Garcia out of hand, I remember the difference between pitching in the AL and in the NL. Garcia, for me, has looked pretty done since he first left the White Sox in 2006. He's soehow managed to hang around for another 8 years, and here he is in Atlanta stumbling into another gig on the heels of a pair of TJ surgeries to Medlen and Beachy. He had a nice little cameo in Atlanta last season, and he's pitched pretty well this spring on the whole, but I just can't get too excited about it. He puts a ton of balls into the air, and despite some decent swinging strike percentages he doesn't ever seem to rack up many K's. There just seems to be a lot more downside than upside.
Dan Uggla - Uggla has hit a handful of homers the past few weeks, which seems to have been enough to hold off Tommy LaStella in what may never have actually been a battle for the 2B job. Uggla is 33 now but he still has pop, but even with substantial improvement the AVG is always going to be an issue. He walks enough to still be a help in OBP-based leagues with a bit of a rebound in contact rate this year, which is likely regardless of spring training talk, but in standard formats his AVG has always been a killer outside of two seasons with a freakishly high BABIP (for his batted ball data, anyway). Something in the .220-.230 range with 25-30 HRs would be a reasonable bounceback for him.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Conor Gillaspie - A solid spring has helped Conor Gillaspie hold off Matt Davidson to retain his status as the White Sox starting 3B, but you definitely get the sense that he is on borrowed time there. Last year's numbers are fairly representative of what to expect from Gillaspie until Davidson arrives to relieve him of his duties: slightly below-par AVG, average power, and no speed in a likely below-average lineup. Although there is a bit of upside (think .255-.265) to his AVG with a solid LD and contact rate only producing a .245 figure in 2013, he's still never going to be more than a middle-tier 3B in 24-team leagues, let alone a guy that you'd want to look at in medium-sized formats. At best, he's a low-end CI, and I bet that Davidson ends the year as the long-term starter at 3B.
Felipe Paulino - Paulino is probably going to be the fifth starter for Chicago to start the year, but as much as I love the high K rates, I can't get behind a guy with as little control as Paulino, particularly when he's pitching for the White Sox. Paulino still has good stuff, although his velocity is still down a few mph from his pre-injury levels, and he has yet to control it enough to succeed at the highest level. (although before the injury in 2012 it looked like he was getting there) I think this post-injury period will be a struggle for him, but later in the year he may have recovered enough command and velocity for us to see if there is still a potentially solid starter in there. For now, I'd stay away.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Michael Pineda - Allow me to add my voice to the clamor around Michael Pineda, looking at it from a slightly different perspective. The best way that I can look at Pineda, who without an official announcement appears to have done enough to win the 5th starter's job in NY, is that it is extremely unlikely that he will be bad. He will either be average, good, or injured. That's exactly the kind of guy that I want in a small-to-medium sized league, where depth isn't much of an issue. If he's average, you can try and spot him. If he's good, you can ride him. If he's hurt, you can ditch him without cost. The upside here is tremendous, and other than injury, the downside is negligible relative to those around him in auction price or draft rank. I am strongly recommending him across the board.
Jenrry Mejia - Oft-injured Jenrry Mejia is still battling for the fifth starter's spot in New York, although Daisuke Matsuzaka has somehow managed to perpetuate the perception that the job will still be his. Mejia has never managed more than 108 2/3 innings in six professional seasons, which is likely the biggest issue that he'll have to overcome to win the spot. There's no question that he still has the stuff to succeed, with excellent GB rates and occasionally favorable K rates as well, but Met management seems concerned about relying on him too much early in the season. I've always been of the opinion that saving pitchers for when you might need them is a fool's errand....look at the caution paid to Stephen Strasburg by Washington, and it didn't save him from the surgeon. Barring immediate health concerns, pitchers should pitch while they can, as tomorrow is never guaranteed. If Mejia wins the job, he is an immediate sleeper in most formats as a back-end starter with upside, and dynasty leaguers should be looking at him regardless of whether he opens the year in AAA, the NY bullpen, or as the 5th starter for the Mets.
Joe Kelly - Kelly did end up winning the fifth starter's job for the Cards, sending Carlos Martinez and his significantly greater potential back to the bullpen. The only reason to expect much from Kelly this year is that he's a Cardinal, and every Cardinal starter that isn't legitimately good is mandated to outperform their FIP ERA by a substantial margin, or at least that's what I read in Kyle Lohse's autobiography. Kelly does not generate a lot of swinging strikes and his control is merely average, but with that Cardinal magic (and a solid offense in support) he may be worthwhile as a last starter in deeper leagues, but no more than that.
Luis Valbuena - Spring stats don't mean much, but they do give glimpses of what a player is capable of at times. Valbuena is a guy that is ignored for the most part in fantasy circles, but the 28 year old is a guy that can play 2B or 3B with surprising power and contact ability given what we've seen statistically. His six homers this spring help illustrate the power potential, and when you add in an excellent walk rate you end up with a guy that can actually be a help in OBP-based leagues. It looks like he's won the 3B job again in Chicago, beating back a strong challenge from Mike Olt. If he can hang onto the job, I think a 240/350/415 line is possible, which would probably include somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 homers. He's no star, but his ceiling is that of a useful bat.
Yordano Ventura - It would be hard for me to be more excited about a non-Strasburg pitching debut than I am for Ventura's first start this year.....with all of the injury news lately I just keep hoping that I don't see the small righty with the big arm in the headlines for the wrong reasons. If anything, it looks like his velocity and control have both improved over the winter, although the spring and small sample size caveats apply. He's one of the early favorites for Rookie of the Year in the AL, and he doesn't appear to have any stringent innings limits in place (200ish is the number that I've heard). I would be comfortable with him as a back-end starter in all formats right out of the gate, and ace-level potential going forward isn't out of the question if his curve and change fulfill their potential.
Jacob Turner - I can't let a spring go by without a comment on Turner, who remains one of "my guys" despite all evidence that he'll never be more than a back-end starter. Turner has the stuff to be much more than that, and his swinging strike percentages have consistently been greater than the K rates would lead you to believe, but his control seems to have regressed somewhat since the midpoint of last year. The Marlins won't have space for him to muddle around forever, as Andrew Heaney isn't that far away, and Turner has done nothing to distinguish himself (yet) from guys like Brian Flynn and Anthony DeSclafini. I maintain that Turner can be a solid mid-rotation arm, and he deserves a look in deeper formats just on the raw stuff, but time is running out.
Jurickson Profar - Continuing what's been a depressing spring as far as injury news goes, Profar is going to miss at least the first two months of the season with a muscle tear in his shoulder, and there's a solid chance that he won't be back until the All-Star break. I was excited to see what strides Profar would be able to make as an everyday player this year, but that's going to have to be tabled for a while. The leading candidate to play second during his absence is reportedly Josh Wilson, a situation that I find to be laughable. The two names that I would consider here are Brent Lillibridge and Rougned Odor. Lillibridge is a pet cat of mine as a guy that can play a lot of positions, draws some walks, and provide a little power and speed. He's nearly always available and, at least in OBP-based leagues, won't kill you. Odor is the Rangers' top prospect and could provide value across the board if Texas wants to gamble. He only has 136 ABs above A-ball though, so I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if they went this route. If Wilson gets the job, expect nothing. If Lillibridge gets the job, he's potentially worth a very late-game selection in OBP-oriented formats. If Odor gets the job, grab him immediately.
Robbie Erlin - Erlin looks like the frontrunner to replace Josh Johnson for the first month of the year as he recovers from a flexor muscle issue. Erlin profiles as a back-end starter, but the fact that he is pitching in San Diego gives him a leg up on many similar arms. Erlin is a good control lefty that gives up a lot of flyballs, and he generates just enough swings and misses to profile as average in the K department with his control. He would be best utilized as a spot starter when at home (or perhaps in SF or LA as well) in deeper leagues, and there's an outside chance that he could pitch well enough to supplant Eric Stults when/if Johnson returns. He's not highly recommended, but there are many worse options out there.
