Kyle Seager (3B - SEA). Seager is a player who could be undervalued in 2014, as I believe there is room for significant improvement in his numbers. Seager put up a fairly unremarkable .260/.338/.426 line in 2013, with 22 HR and 9 SBs. However, Seager was in line for a much more impressive season, until a .213 BABIP over the final two months dragged his numbers down. Seager showed significant improvement in his plate discipline (improving his BB% from 7.1 in 2012 to 9.8 in 2013) and, barring another late-season surge in bad luck, his BA should improve into at least the .270 range. This anticipated improvement, coupled with his proven HR ability (20 HR in 2012, 22 in 2013) and what should be an improved lineup around him, makes Seager a player I will be targeting in drafts. As an added bonus, Seager should provide 10 or so SB, which is a rare commodity at his position and which should make him just as valuable as some of the more highly-regarded (and more expensive) 3B.
Baltimore Orioles - 2B Battle. Ryan Flaherty went 0 for 4 Friday against the Braves. Although Flaherty is playing well this spring, posting a .282 average with 1 HR and 4 RBI, he is being outplayed by prospect Jonathan Schoop, who is hitting .406 with 1 HR and 6 RBI. Both players will probably make the team, with Flaherty sliding over to 3B until Manny Machado is ready, but if Schoop performs well early, he could hold on to the 2B job. From a fantasy perspective, Schoop has far more upside, as he is ranked as the Orioles' fifth best prospect by MLB.com. Schoop had an injury-shortened season at AAA in 2013, but he did post 9 HR in only 289 at bats, leading to the conclusion that he could be a good source of HR at a position where power is scarce. He is an average risk, however, posting BAs of .256 and .245 the last two years at AAA and AA, respectively. These low batting averages are the product of a lack of plate discipline, as evidenced by Schoop's almost 4:1 K:BB ratio at AAA. Despite his lofty BA this spring, Schoop's plate discipline remains suspect, as he has 10 strikeouts to only 3 walks. Nevertheless, should Schoop wind up as the starter at 2B, he could be a sneaky source of power as a late round flier.
John Axford (RP - CLE). The Indians signed Axford with the intention of having him take over for Chris Perez as closer, despite the fact that he is coming off a down season during which he lost his job as the Brewers closer and was traded to St. Louis in a deadline deal. The trade to St. Louis may have been a blessing in disguise for Axford, because Cardinals coaches supposedly figured out that he was tipping his pitches, and he posted solid numbers down the stretch for the Cardinals. If Axford has truly corrected a flaw in his delivery, he could provide solid value as a closer who is routinely available late in drafts (21.08 ADP). Axford's peripherals remained solid (9.00 K/9, 22.5 K% and a 3.56 FIP) and his 1.52 WHIP was at least partly the product of a .339 BABIP. Axford will likely not have a long leash in Cleveland, as the Indians do have alternatives such as Cody Allen, but the possibility that Axford could return to his 2011 form when he saved 46 games for the Brewers makes him a worthy gamble.
Brandon Phillips (2B - CIN). Although Phillips drove in a career high 103 runs in 2013, several warning signs appeared that lead me to believe that Phillips will likely be overvalued in 2014. His K rate increased from 12.7 to 14.7%, which may be an indication that Phillips, who will turn 33 during the 2014 season, is starting to lose some bat speed. Additionally, Phillips' steals plummeted from 15 to 5, likely indicating that Phillips has lost a step. While Phillips is probably still a top ten 2B, the slippage in both his speed and his plate discipline cause me to rank him below other 2B who are being drafted later than Phillips' current 11.05 ADP.
James Paxton (SP - SEA). Paxton has taken advantage of the injuries to Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker to win a spot in the Mariners' rotation. Paxton impressed in a brief audition at the end of the 2013 season, posting a 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a 22.3% K rate in 4 starts. Those numbers were markedly better than the 4.45 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 20.5% K rate Paxton posted at AAA (albeit in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League). However, Paxton's AAA numbers were affected by poor luck, as they were inflated by a .338 BABIP and a 65.9% strand rate. Paxton did make significant improvement in his control, reducing his BB/9 from 4.57 to 3.58 (still not great, but improvement nonetheless). Paxton also showed excellent ground ball ability (59.1% GB rate in his 4 MLB starts, although small sample size caveats apply). If Paxton pitches well while Walker and Iwakuma are on the shelf, he should be able to keep his rotation spot after they return, which makes Paxton worthy of strong consideration in AL-only leagues and of at least reserve roster consideration in deeper mixed leagues.
Desmond Jennings (OF-TB). Is this finally the year for the break-out? Seemingly a perpetual disappointment for not living up to the hype of being "the next Carl Crawford," it is easy to forget that Jennings is still only 27 years old and should just be reaching his prime. Jennings showed some improvement in his plate discipline in 2013, reducing his K rate from 21.3 to 19.1%. Jennings' .252 BA was hampered by a .295 BABIP, which is rather low for a player with Jennings' speed, so some improvement in BA can be expected. More concerning is Jennings' drop in SBs from 31 to 20. All-in-all in does not look like a breakout is coming in 2014, unless Jennings can increase his SBs. We project Jennings to improve in BA (to .261) and HR (to 17, from 13 in 2013), but to essentially hold steady in SBs at 22. While this is solid production, it is certainly not a break-out and makes Jennings somewhat overvalued at his current ADP of 11.05.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Yasiel Puig (OF-LAN). Manager Don Mattingly announced on Thursday that he intends to use Puig as his leadoff hitter during the season-opening series in Australia. If this change sticks throughout the season it will obviously affect Puig's projected stats in that he can be expected to score more, but drive in fewer, runs. The change may also make Puig more likely to attempt stolen bases, although this may be wishful thinking given the way Puig appears to have bulked up over the winter (0 SBs so far in spring training). We currently project Puig to hit .290, with 77 R, 27 HR, 94 RBI and 18 SB. In light of this recent news, the run and RBI totals should probably be adjusted up and down, respectively, but I would not expect much change in the SB numbers even with this change in lineup position.
Bruce Rondon (RP-DET). If you were looking at Rondon as a possible deep sleeper for saves in the event of a Joe Nathan injury, you can stop now. Rondon has been diagnosed as needing Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2014 season. This probably makes Joba Chamberlain the front-runner to act as Nathan's setup man.
Kyle Gibson (SP-MIN). Kyle Gibson has apparently won the job as the Twins fifth starter on the strength of 2.70 ERA over 13.1 innings so far this spring. I would not recommend rushing out to add Gibson to your fantasy teams, however. Gibson posted a rough 6.53 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in a ten start trial with the Twins in 2013. While Gibson unquestionably suffered from some bad luck in producing these less-than-stellar results (.350 BABIP, 66.5% strand rate, 13.5% HR/FB rate), he still profiles as, at best a fourth starter and, on a Minnesota team not likely to be significantly better than last year, Gibson's limited upside is simply not worth a roster spot in most fantasy leagues. Gibson's ascension to the fifth starter spot also means that Samuel Deduno will start the season in the bullpen, thereby eliminating any fantasy value he may have had.
Evan Gattis (C-ATL). Gattis missed his third straight game with a strained quad on Friday, although he insisted that he would be playing if it were the regular season. Gattis is slated for duty as the Braves' primary catcher in 2014, although he is also expected to receive starts in the OF, which should make him a candidate for more games played than most catchers. Gattis should be a good source of power (although don't fall into the trap of extrapolating his 2013 HR total over a full seasons' worth of at-bats) and we expect him to hit 26 HR in 2014. However, he is not likely to contribute much in BA - although he posted a low .255 BABIP in 2013, that is not exceptionally low, given Gattis' 14.5% line drive rate. Unless he manages to hit more line drives, Gattis is unlikely to crack the .250 BA barrier.
Brett Lawrie (3B-TOR). Lawrie hit a home run and a two-run single against the Rays on Friday, to raise his spring average to .350. While Lawrie has had difficulty staying healthy and is therefore an injury risk, he has a chance to provide excellent value at the 3B this year and is on my list of players to target in drafts. Lawrie's .254 BA in 2013 was largely the product of a .280 BABIP that was 20 points lower than Lawrie's career average and his counting stats were negatively impacted by Lawrie's inability to stay off the DL (only 107 game played). Assuming he can stay healthy, I like Lawrie to outperform his current 15.05 ADP and post a line of at least as good as the .270/.324/.431, with 18 HR and 13 SB that we currently project for him.
Rajai Davis (OF-DET). Davis, who has been nursing a tight hamstring, is expected to return to Grapefruit League action on Sunday or Monday. With Andy Dirks likely out for at least 3 months, Davis will have the chance to establish himself as the Tigers' full-time LF. We are currently projecting Davis to post a .270 BA with 44 SBs, which makes him mixed league relevant.
Jackie Bradley (OF-BOS). Bradley went 0 for 4 on Friday, dropping his spring BA to .182 in 44 ABs. Bradley has been outperformed by Grady Sizemore to this point, and is in serious danger of starting the season in the minor leagues. Not a recommended add at this point.
Michael Brantley (OF-CLE). Brantley went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI on Friday, to raise his spring average to .500. Brantley is a solid play as an OF4 or OF5 in standard mixed leagues, as he provides solid across-the-board production in all categories. We project him to hit .296 with 13 HR, 76 R, 74 RBI and 18 SB in 2014.
Alex Gordon (OF-KC). Gordon went 3 for 4 with a run and an RBI against the Angels on Friday. Gordon is another steady contributor at the OF position, providing production that, while not flashy, will help you in all offensive categories. We project Gordon to hit .272 with 23 HR, 88 R, 93 RBI (thanks to his new position in the five-hole in KC's batting order) and 11 SBs.
