Dodgers second base situation
By all accounts, Dee Gordon has won the starting second base job over Alex Guerrero. Both have travelled to Australia for the two-game series against Arizona, but that is likely due to MLB's granting of a 30-man roster for the trip. Back stateside, we should expect Guerrero to open in Double-A Chattanooga a la Yasiel Puig last year. Should Guerrero fare well early, he could quickly put Gordon's starting status at risk. Guerrero is batting a healthy (and even) .300/.400/.500 in 30 spring at-bats to Gordon's .286/.326/.476, but this may be more about where each player is defensively. Both are new to the position, but Gordon appears to be taking to second base quicker, at least so far. If Guerrero can show progress defensively and hit close to .300 in the minors, he should be up in short order. For now though, Gordon carries a fair amount of NL-only and deeper mixed league value for his stolen base prowess.
Dodgers No. 5 starter
Presumed fifth starter Josh Beckett is dealing with a thumb injury and did not make the trip to Australia. It sounds relatively minor, so I'd still expect Beckett to be part of the rotation, perhaps making his first start sometime in mid-April given all the off-days the team has. Should Beckett be not quite ready, the top candidates could be Paul Maholm and Zach Lee. Maholm has a 7.04 ERA this spring however, but Lee is coming off four one-run innings against Team Australia and was really locating his fastball well on the outter half. Lee now has an 11:2 K:BB in 8.2 innings this spring and looks like he can contribute at some point this year. Maholm though probably gets the first crack at a rotation slot.
Padres No. 5 starter
The Padres have yet to make it official, but it seems likely that Eric Stults will win the No. 5 starter job over Robbie Erlin. It won't be on spring performances however, as Erlin has a 2.45 spring ERA in four appearances while Stults sits at 7.15 with a 1.68 WHIP and just a 5:5 K:BB in 11.1 innings. Stults however pitched well last time out (five innings, one run against the Angels) and he posted a 3.93 ERA in 33 starts last year, so he'll likely get the benefit of the doubt. The Padres could use both in the rotation given that Tyson Ross has had a mediocre spring (6.39 ERA), but with a fastball that averages a tick over 94 mph, the team like's Ross' upside and wants to give him a chance.
Padres Outfield
With Cameron Maybin likely out until mid-May with a biceps injury, the Padres outfield situation is a big unsettled at the moment. Carlos Quentin should play most every day at one of the corners, while the left-handed hitting Will Venable would seem to be in line for everyday duty as well. Venable surprisingly hit southpaws better than right-handers last year, batting a solid .276/.309/.524 against them. A healthy Venable is a threat to reach 20/20 for the second consecutive season. That leaves one spot open for some combination of Seth Smith, Kyle Blanks, Chris Denorfia, Alexi Amarista, Alex Castellanos, and the surprise of camp, Tommy Medica. A natural first baseman, Medica is batting a robust .296/.420/.646 this spring and could at least see time in the outfield versus southpaws as well as spelling (replacing?) Yonder Alonso at first. Medica is worth a flier in deeper formats.
Giants outfield
Hunter Pence is reliable and having a solid spring, but the rest of the Giants' outfielders (Angel Pagan, Mike Morse, and Gregor Blanco) are each batting less than .235 and between the three, have combined for exactly zero home runs. That could leave the door open for Juan Perez to have some deeper league value this season. Perez is batting a healthy .318/.412/.591 and his nine extra-base hits (one homer) are tied with Pence for the team lead. Perez is 27 with limited big league experience, but his minor league track record suggests that with regular playing time, he could hit in the .280 range with 10 home runs and 20 steals. Monitor his status early in the season.
Rockies center field / leadoff slot
Barring an upside, Drew Stubbs is expected to be the everyday center fielder and leadoff man. Through Wednesday's action, Stubbs was batting .323/.400/.323, with one double among his nine hits. We can probably expect at least 10-12 homers from Stubbs, though the 22 he hit in 2010 makes us wonder whether that estimate is overly conservative given his new home park. Stubbs has also seen his stolen base totals drop (40, 30, 17) the last three years, as his OBP (.310 career) has not met the expectations of a leadoff guy. Stubbs has also been far better versus LHP (188 pts. of OPS better) than RHP the last three years, so seeing some sort of platoon with Corey Dickerson (.819 OPS vs. RHP in 2013) and perhaps Charlie Blackmon appears inevitable. We'll just have to see whether manager Walt Weiss gives Stubbs a shot at every day duties.
Yasiel Puig (OF-LAD) - Puig entered Thursday's exhibition game in Australia batting just .122 with no home runs on the spring, but at least for one day, the Puig we saw in June and July was back. He hit a long two-run homer and threw out a guy at the plate from right field with ease. It appears Puig is set to be the team's leadoff man, a slot which will limit his RBI opportunities but perhaps allow Puig to steal 30+ bases. He's a mammoth talent, but after fading down the stretch, it's probably best to temper expectations. On the plus side, Puig started taking more pitches as the season progressed - BB%'s by month of 3.7%, 7.6%, 11.6%, and 10.1%. The improved ability to recognize balls and strikes should help Puig rebound somewhat from his disappointing finish in 2013.
Ruben Tejada (SS-NYM) - For a day at least, the calls for the Mets to sign free agent SS Stephen Drew are at least somewhat muted, as Tejada went 3-for-3 with a double on Thursday. The big day raised Tejada's BA from .120 to .217. He's drawn just one walk in 10 games and after batting a paltry .202/.259/.260 last year, Tejada looks to again be poised to challenge all comers as the worst player offensively at his position. A .228 BABIP a year ago would seem to suggest a rebound to the .250 BA range is very possible, but Tejada offers zero power potential and has a minimal fantasy impact on the bases.
Matt Garza (SP-MIL) - For now we'll take the "it's only March" approach with Garza, but the Brew Crew's big offseason acquisition has been downright brutal. Due to a parade of baserunners, Garza has logged just 5.2 innings at the MLB level this spring (he did pitch in a minor league game), and the results are pretty ugly: 17 runs, 12 earned runs, 19 hits, and a 4:3 K:BB. Garza doesn't appear to have anything wrong physically, so we'll probably not recommend that you drop him too far down based on a few spring training outings. He's likely going to open as the No. 2 or 3 starter.
Josh Fields (RP-HOU) - Not only do Astros fans get to stomach the fact that Scott Feldman is their team's Opening Day starter, but they also get to witness this clash of the titans for the closer role: Fields vs. Chad Qualls. Fields struck out the side Thursday against the Phillies and has allowed just one run in six innings with a 5:0 K:BB this spring while Qualls sits with a 5.40 ERA. Qualls though may still be the favorite given his experience, but if I had to choose one to roster all year, it would be Fields. Fields is a former first round pick, so he has the pedigree as well as the ability to miss bats, having posted a 9.5 K/9 in 38 innings last year. Of course Fields also allowed eight home runs and posted a 4.3 BB/9 - hence the 4.97 ERA. If he can continue to locate his fastball well on both sides of the plate, we could see an ERA more in the 3.50 range, as Fields' 15.7% HR/FB ratio should come down this year simply due to luck.
Ike Davis (1B-NYM) - Due to injuries, Davis and fellow 1B competitor Lucas Duda have tallied just 16 at-bats this spring, with a combined three hits. Perhaps someone pulls away in the next couple days, but there really isn't much data to go on as the Mets near a decision on who should be staring the Opener. I'm pretty sure however that it will be Davis getting the nod. The Mets are likely going deal one of the two at some point this year, and given that Davis has a 32-homer season on his resume (2012) and he's getting expensive relative to his production, I can see the Mets showcasing him for other teams early. Who knows, perhaps he'll hit so well that the team will want to keep him. Davis does draw a fair amount of walks (15.1% BB% last year) and his BABIP was 19 points below his career .287 mark, so there should be no doubt that he can raise that ugly .205 average, but the big question is whether his power will return to pre-2013 levels. I'll believe it when I see it.
Jesse Chavez (SP-OAK) - With Jarrod Parker undergoing Tommy John surgery next week and A.J. Griffin out until sometime in May, Chavez and Tommy Milone look to be in line to fill two spots in the A's rotation. Chavez is the lesser-known of the two, so let's take a quick look. The first thing that jumps out is that he's appeared in 191 big league games with just two of those as a starter (2012). As a reliever last year, he was solid enough, posting an 8.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. We'd take that for sure in a starting pitcher, but experience tells us that pitchers won't throw as hard in a starting role, thus leading typically to reduced strikeout rates. This spring, Chavez pitched himself into the job, posting a 1.04 ERA and 14:4 K:BB in 17.1 innings. He appeared to tire a bit in the fifth inning last time out, so don't expect him to go deep into games right away, but there is some upside here.
Stephen Strasburg (SP-WAS) - After Clayton Kershaw, there are vastly differing opinions on who the top fantasy starters will be this year. My money is on Strasburg and you should be able to grab him after three or more starters are already off the board. Strasburg tossed five shutout innings Thursday against a Tigers lineup that was admittedly missing a couple key guys, including Miguel Cabrera. Strasburg though for this spring has allowed just one run in 14 innings with a 10:4 K:BB. After missing most of 2011 having undergone Tommy John surgery, Strasburg has made 58 starts the past two years, posting a 3.08 ERA and topping 190 strikeouts each year. This year could be a huge step forward for the Nationals' ace. He's having a great spring. He held hitters to a .192 BA after the 2013 break, and he seemed to get stronger as the season progressed last year, with his three highest K/9 months (10.7, 9.8, 9.7) coming in the season's final three months.
JJ Hoover (RP-CIN) - The Reds apparently are looking at a closer-by-committee to replace the injured Aroldis Chapman, with the names of Hoover, Sean Marshall, and Jonathan Broxton coming up in the conversation. Hoover would seem to be the best bet at this point given that he had the most success last year, recording three saves, 13 holds, a 2.86 ERA, and solid peripherals (9.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9). Broxton has tossed just one inning this spring and is up in the air for Opening Day due to an elbow injury. Expect Hoover to be tapped for the role first, with perhaps Marshall mixed in situationally (i.e. against LH hitters).
David Freese (3B-STL) - After recording a BABIP of at least .350 in each of his preceding three seasons, Freese saw that mark drop to .323 in 2013, resulting in his hitting just .262 after topping .292 in each of the three prior seasons. See the correlation? Freese also saw his power take a huge dip, as he homered just nine times while his .119 ISO was by far the worse of his career. Freese is also hitting just .212 this season, with all seven of his hits going for singles. Don't be shocked if the Angels look for a third base upgrade no later than July, though if they want to look in-house, Grant Green has seen some time at the position and he's a former first-round pick batting .371 with five doubles. Freese may be on the hot seat relatively early this year.
Dustin Ackley (OF/2B) - Could this be the year Ackley figures things out? A disappointment in his first two full seasons, Ackley is batting a fine .457 in 46 at-bats this spring, including eight extra-base hits and a 6:3 K:BB. Despite the disappointing two years, Ackley still posts an EYE in the 0.50 range while fanning in less than 20% of his PA's. He doesn't have traditional LF power, but 12-15 homers and double-digit steals are possible, and if he can show solid OBP skills, Ackley could soon find himself batting near or at the top of the lineup, thus adding more value to fantasy owners.
