Welcome to a special all-pitcher edition of the blog. I am personally not a believer in spending big $$ or early draft picks on pitching, notwithstanding the current trend in fantasy leagues toward drafting/buying pitchers earlier than in previous years (as evidenced by Clayton Kershaw's current ADP of 1.05). With that in mind, here are some pitchers that could provide significant value in 2014, relative to their current ADP and/or auction values:
Josh Johnson (SP - SD). After an injury-plagued 2013, Johnson signed a one year deal with the Padres, presumably hoping to re-establish his value. Although Johnson's 2013 numbers were extremely ugly (6.20 ERA, 1.66 WHIP in only 81 innings), his peripherals indicate that better days should be ahead in 2014. Johnson suffered from extreme bad luck in 2013, as evidenced by a .356 BABIP, a 63.3 LOB% and an 18.5% HR/FB rate which was more than double his career rate. Johnson's underlying skills appear to be intact, as he posted a 9.18 K/9 rate (higher than his career rate) and a ground ball rate of 45.1% (only slightly lower than his career rate) and his xFIP of 3.58 is a truer measure of his ability. I like Johnson as a strong bounce back candidate for 2014, particularly given his move to the NL and a much more pitcher-favorable home park. Also, the fact that Johnson will be motivated to obtain a long-term contract further supports the idea that he will have a bounce-back season. Health will always be a question mark with Johnson, but the Padres must have been relatively satisfied with his physical in order to commit $8M to Johnson for the 2014 season. If he can stay healthy, Johnson could be a steal, given his current ADP of 29.09.
Tim Hudson (SP - SF). Hudson's 2013 season was cut short by a gruesome ankle injury. However, prior to his injury, Hudson was his usual consistent self, posting a 3.97 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and he even increased his K/9 to 6.51 (.45 above his career rate). Hudson's ERA was inflated by an unlucky 68.1% strand rate, so we expect that number to come down in 2014, particularly in light of Hudson's move to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. Hudson's xFIP was 3.56, which is a more accurate measure of his actual performance in 2013. Hudson has been able to maintain his elite ground ball rate (55.8% in 2013) as he enters the twilight of his career and if he can hold his strikeout gains from 2013, he could provide great value. We project Hudson to post a 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 124 Ks over 182 innings. Those numbers would make Hudson a steal at his current ADP of 27.05.
Alex Cobb (SP - TB). Although Cobb doesn't really qualify as a sleeper for 2014, I am still extremely bullish on his prospects, and he can provide results that are not too far off from the "elite" pitchers without spending an early draft choice. Cobb had a breakout season in 2013, posting a 2.76 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and an 8.41 K/9, to go along with an elite 55.8% GB rate. Although some mild regression should be expected in 2014 (Cobb's FIP was 3.36 and his xFIP was 3.02 in 2013), Cobb's peripherals indicate that the drop-off should not be too great. In addition to the outstanding groundball rate, Cobb also posted a strong 2.98 K/BB rate and his K% of 23.2% indicates that his strikeout numbers should be sustainable. Even with some regression in his ERA, Cobb figures to be a good bet to post an ERA in the low 3s, while also providing strong strikeout numbers. As such, I would not hesitate to make him the anchor of a pitching staff, especially in light of the fact that he can be obtained, on average, in the 10th round, as opposed to spending a first or second round pick on a Kershaw or Darvish.
Doug Fister (SP - WAS). Fister is another pitcher who probably doesn't strictly qualify as a sleeper, but he does fit the profile of the type of pitcher I like to target - i.e., one who is likely to be undervalued because of the likelihood that he will put up better numbers in 2014 than he did in 2013. Not that Fister's numbers in 2013 were bad - he posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. However, the latter number was inflated by a .332 BABIP. Fister's FIP was 3.26 (which, along with his WHIP, is indicative of the impact Detroit's less than stellar infield defense had on Fister's numbers). The move to the Nationals should be beneficial to Fister's numbers, not only because the move to the NL should result in at least a minimal increase to the 6.86 K/9 rate Fister posted in 2013, but also because Washington's better infield defense should also result in a lower BABIP, with a corresponding decrease in Fister's WHIP. Fister's elite GB% (54.3 in 2013), coupled with an equally elite 3.61 K/BB rate and the expected increase in his K-rate, make Fister a pitcher I will be targeting in 2014, particularly at his current ADP of 12.08. One cautionary note, though. Fister did miss a start last week due to elbow tenderness. Fister has dismissed this as normal spring training soreness, but keep an eye on this situation - if Fister misses another start, then it would be time to reconsider drafting him.
Kevin Gausman (SP - BAL). Gausman had a rude introduction to MLB in 2013, posting a rough 5.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while splitting time between starting and relief. Gausman is not guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation in 2014, but if he is able to win a spot, he would be someone to target in the late rounds of drafts or as a $1 pitcher in auctions. His 2013 numbers are not indicative of Gausman's true potential, as they were inflated by extremely unlucky BABIP (.328), strand % (64.4) and HR/FB (18.6%) numbers. Gausman's FIP and xFIP were 3.99 and 3.04, respectively and an ERA somewhere between those numbers would be a reasonable expectation for 2014 (we are currently projecting Gausman's ERA to be 3.82). Gausman's K rate of 9.25 per 9 is elite, and while it was likely somewhat inflated by the fact that Gausman spent some of his time in the bullpen, he did post an 8.33 K/9 rate as a starter at AAA. While there is considerable risk here, as there is with any young pitcher (including the likelihood that he will be on an innings limit (only 130 IP between 3 levels in 2013)), it's a risk worth taking given the likelihood that Gausman would be available late in drafts (current ADP of 32.10).
Dan Haren (SP - LA). Although Haren is neither a sexy nor exciting pick, it would be a bad idea to simply ignore the potential value he could bring as a sixth starter for your fantasy squad. Although Haren's 2013 numbers (4.67 ERA) are undoubtedly ugly, and the Nationals probably wish they had spent their $13M in a different fashion, Haren remains a viable back-end fantasy starter. Haren suffered from at least mild bad luck (70.3 strand %) in 2013 and his 3.67 xFIP indicates that at least some improvement in ERA should be expected. Additionally, Haren maintained a strong 8.01 K/9 rate. There are some reasons for concern, as Haren's velocity has been dropping for the last three years, which has led to a dramatic increase in Haren's HR/9 (from 1.19 in 2010 to 1.49 in 2013) and HR/FB % (from 10.8% in 2010 to 13.0% in 2013). However, the move to Dodger Stadium should help mitigate this trend to a certain extent, and you could certainly do worse than Haren as the last starter on your team.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Jose Abreu (1B - CWS). I had a chance to see Abreu in action personally on Saturday, when the White Sox took on the Diamondbacks in Glendale, and I came away unimpressed. I think all the hype over Abreu is going to make him overvalued on draft day. He seemed impatient at the plate, swinging at either the first or the second pitch every time up, and all of his at bats ended in weak infield grounders. I know it's only spring training, but sometimes that's all we have to go on with these players who haven't played outside of Cuba and I would exercise caution about spending too early a draft pick on Abreu. I think he will probably hit for decent power, given his home park, but he could wind up being a significant drag on batting average.
Avisail Garcia (OF - CWS). I also saw Garcia in person for the first time and Saturday and what I saw reaffirmed my resolve to get Garcia on as many of my fantasy teams as possible. He went 1 for 3 with a triple, but the triple demonstrated why I am so high on Garcia. The ball literally jumped off his bat, and what initially looked like a routine fly ball wound up one-hopping the fence. Garcia batted 4th in this game and if that winds up being his lineup position in the regular season, he should get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs with on-base machine Adam Eaton leading off.
Dee Gordon (2B- LAN). According to reports out of Dodgers camp, it looks like Gordon is the current favorite to open the season as the Dodgers second baseman, with Alex Guerrero starting the season in the minors. If he indeed wins the job, Gordon becomes immediately relevant in mixed leagues, given his SB abilities (8 for 8 so far in spring training and projected for 42 SBs in only 380 at bats in our projections). He could provide similar production to Billy Hamilton at a much lower cost (current ADP of 38.03 for Gordon versus 7.02 for Hamilton).
Kyle Parker (OF - COL). Kyle Parker, who is one of the Rockies top prospects, hit a two-run homer in Colorado's 13-0 win over the Cubs on Tuesday. Although Parker has yet to play above AA, Rockies' manager Walt Weiss indicated that Parker could play his way onto the roster with a strong spring. If he does make the team, Parker could be an interesting flier in NL only leagues, given the strong .288/.345/.492 line, with 23 HR in 528 ABs, he posted at AA.
Mark Trumbo (1B - ARI). Trumbo went 0 for 3 with 2 Ks in the Diamondbacks' loss to the Indians on Tuesday. Despite the unfavorable results, I like Trumbo as a relatively cheap source of power in 2014, particularly given the likelihood that he will eventually obtain dual 1B-OF eligibility. We project Trumbo to slash .255/.321/.463 with 31 HRs and 98 RBI. If you can afford the likely batting average hit, Trumbo is almost a lock to provide at least 30 HRs for your fantasy team.
Nolan Arenado (3B - COL). Arenado went 3 for 3 with a HR and two RBI against the Cubs on Tuesday. Arenado more than held his own in his rookie season, slashing .267/.301/.405. Although Arenado's power numbers were a little disappointing (10 HRs and a .138 ISO), he showed good plate discipline, with a very respectable 14.0% K rate. We expect to see continued growth from Arenado in 2014 (projection of 18 HR, 76 RBI and a .284/.318/.461 slash), which would make him a very solid fallback plan after the elite 3B are gone (17.08 ADP).
Todd Frazier (3B - CIN). Frazier, who went 2 for 3 with 2 RBI on Tuesday against the Giants, is another one of my favorite "sleeper" options at 3B. Although he is widely viewed as having had a disappointing 2013 season (.234 BA), he did manage to hit 19 HRs and drive in 73 runs. Frazier's average was suppressed by a .269 BABIP, which was roughly 20 points lower than Frazier's career number. With a normalized BABIP, Frazier should be able to at least hit .250 - .260 with around 20 HRs. Additionally, new Reds manager Bryan Price has indicated that he wants Frazier to be more aggressive on the bases, which should result in an increase over Frazier's 6 SBs in 2013. Frazier has stolen as many as 17 bases in the minors, so he could be good for 10-15 SBs and 20 HRs, which would make him an absolute steal at his current 19.10 ADP.
John Danks (SP - CWS). Danks spun 5 shutout innings against the Rangers on Tuesday. Danks' days of mixed league relevancy are probably long gone, but he could have some value in AL-only leagues. His 4.08 xFIP indicates that there is room for some improvement from his 4.75 ERA in 2013 and if he can bring his HR% more in line with his career rate (10.8% career, 16.8% in 2013), he could be a positive contributor as an SP 5 or 6 on an AL-only squad.
Sonny Gray (SP - OAK). Gray dominated the Padres on Tuesday, tossing 4 scoreless innings, giving up only 1 hit and striking out 2 while not walking a batter. Gray had an outstanding debut in 2013, posting a 2.67 ERA in 64.0 major league innings, and following that up with an outstanding performance against the powerful Tigers in the playoff. Gray's numbers are supported by his peripherals (9.42 K/9 rate, 52.9% GB rate and a 2.92 xFIP), all of which indicate that Gray's success should be sustainable in 2014, especially given his favorable home park. Gray is another pitcher I like as an SP3 or 4 after the elite and/or more-hyped pitchers are off the board.
Wilmer Flores (2B - NYM). Flores played all nine innings on Tuesday, going 2 for 3 with a 2B, 2 BBs and 2 runs. The Mets appear to be committed to giving Flores a full opportunity to win their SS job, and if he can be merely adequate in the field, he has a good chance to be starting on opening day, given the Mets' extreme dissatisfaction with Ruben Tejeda. Flores posted a solid .321/.357/.531 line at AAA in 2013 and, while he is unlikely to match those numbers in 2014, (his average was supported by an unsustainable .342 BABIP and he posted a 22.8% K rate in the majors), he could provide above-average production, given the shallowness of the SS position.
