ATLANTA BRAVES
Alex Wood - With Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both succumbing to injuries in the past few days, Alex Wood's role with the Braves has become quite a bit clearer: he is now a near-lock to open the season in the rotation. Wood spent most of last season in the bullpen for Atlanta, but he did make 11 starts from late July through early September before moving back to the pen. Wood is a 2012 2nd round pick from the University of Georgia that has flown through the system, tossing only 115 minor league innings before making his Atlanta debut on May 30th of last year. He is primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher, mixing in a below-average curve now and then mostly for variety. His unconventional delivery is probably responsible for as much of his success as anything, and I do believe that he will struggle a bit more than many as the league adjusts to him. Still, his control is solid and he is tough to elevate, and while the K rate is likely to drop off a bit, he should still be able to maintain an average strikeout total. An ERA in the 3.75-4.00 range and 10-12 wins would be a reasonable expectation for Wood's first full MLB campaign, and since the certainty of his role has increased a bit this week, I'd feel comfortable picking him up as a back-end starter in leagues deeper than 12-team mixed.
Braves' rotation woes - As of this moment, the Atlanta rotation consists of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and a whole lot of uncertainty. Injuries to Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy combined with Mike Minor's shoulder discomfort have left the Braves searching for answers, and while I do believe that only Medlen's injury is serious (and that hasn't been confirmed yet either), there are pretty solid odds that at least of the three starters won't be ready to open the season. The next man up for Atlanta will likely either be David Hale or Freddy Garcia. Garcia is barely serviceable at this point in his career, relying on his control to overcome the fact that he just can't get the ball by anybody anymore. Hale, a 2009 3rd round pick from Princeton, is a bit more interesting. Hale is a three-pitch guy (FB, SL, CH) with middling control and solid groundball rates that has managed to lower his ERA at each promotion the past three years. He doesn't miss a ton of bats so his ceiling is limited, but he could prove to be a decent option in the deepest of formats if he can win one of the empty rotation spots. The Braves have a number of solid arms in the lower minors, but in terms of healthy starters that are potentially MLB-ready, the cupboard is suddenly pretty bare.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Avisail Garcia - Garcia is a player that many are high on for 2014, as the 23 year old is expected to start in RF despite the presence of both Alejandro De Aza and Dayan Viciedo in the OF corner competition. Garcia had 14 HRs and 9 SBs in just 442 ABs across 3 levels last year, posting a solid 14.6% HR/FB ratio during his major league time. Garcia loves to swing (almost 60% swing rate) and has been able to post an average up near .300 in each of the past two seasons at multiple levels, and the power seems to be developing nicely as well....mix in a little speed and it's easy to see the lofty ceiling here. The huge swinging strike% is likely to cause a few issues with his ability to keep the AVG up near the top-tier, but the home park is certain to help his pop, so there's still enough here for him to be a later-round selection in some deeper leagues. He's the 67th OF coming off the board right now, putting him right near the edge of 5th OF status in most mixed leagues, and he has enough upside that he should be rostered in most formats of that size. OBP-oriented leaguers should downgrade him quite a bit from there.
Erik Johnson - Erik Johnson is very likely to open the season as the 4th starter for the White Sox, and his minor league ERAs might have everyone drooling over his prospects for a breakout rookie campaign. I'm much less optimistic, particularly because of his home park. Johnson profiles best as a #3 or #4 starter: he's a big, durable guy with four solid-average pitches and decent control. He isn't expected to post huge K rates, and he doesn't keep the ball down enough to avoid the problems that US Cellular Field is going to cause him. The White Sox also aren't likely to be good enough offensively to allow him to post more than 8-10 wins. Cobble all of that together and you've got a guy that's probably good enough to hold onto a rotation spot, but doesn't have the ceiling that you'd like to see in more shallow formats. In 14-team mixed leagues and deeper (plus AL-only formats), Johnson should offer enough value to be a palatable 4th or 5th starter.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Chris Colabello - There's very little in the way of offensive upside for the Twins pre-Buxton and Sano, but Chris Colabello is an interesting case. The indy-league refugee was the IL MVP in 2013, slugging 31 homers between AAA and the majors in just 498 ABs. He's a three true outcomes darling for sure, posting huge K rates and solid walk rates to go along with the power, but the .352 AVG at AAA is a bit intriguing....perhaps more because it's one of the few real data points that we have for him than anything else. The 30% HR/FB rate in his 1/3 of a season in Minnesota last year is pretty impressive too, and he's gotten off (SSS alert) to a huge start this spring, which may give him a leg up in the fairly wide-open DH sweepstakes. The upside here could be a solid average and 20-25 homers, which is something you won't see a lot of in the range he's currently being drafted (not in top-50 1B or top-125 OF). Deep league sleeper only for now.
Samuel Deduno - Deduno has the inside track on the 5th starter's job right now for the Twins, and with excellent GB rates and better stuff than the K rates would indicate, he may be a sneaky late-round play in deep leagues. Deduno simply doesn't miss enough bats as a starter to warrant consideration in more shallow formats, preferring to pitch to contact and keep the ball down, but he has managed a 14-13 record with a 59% GB rate for a pretty poor team the past two years (33 starts). It's highly likely that he's the 3rd-best starter behind the two off-season imports.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Justin Smoak - Smoak actually hit 260/361/477 against RHP last season, which should underscore just how badly the M's need to find a platoon partner for him. Lo and behold, RHB Corey Hart (and less likely, RHB Jesus Montero) are available as options, should the Mariners be wise enough to avail themselves. Smoak is yet another guy that isn't all that interesting in traditional formats, but if you can platoon him in an OBP-based league, he's suddenly interesting. A better offense should increase R and RBI totals for all of the returning Mariners, and Smoak has hit 19 and 20 HRs the past two years, so 20 HRs seems a reasonable benchmark. If he can throw in a .350 OBP, he's suddenly a viable, cheap solution at 1B. Obviously a platoon partner is needed if you have the daily flexibility, and if you don't his value plummets. Still, from the depths of Smoak's 2012, it's nice to see some glimmer of value here..
My affinity for Michael Saunders - Saunders is one of those guys that you can't help but be intrigued by, as he puts together a couple of months every year that make you think he's finally breaking out. Saunders actually has a solid excuse for last year, as it appears that his shoulder wasn't fully healed as he was struggling through a putrid May/June stretch. He hit 251/350/440 in the 2nd half, which is a bit more representative of what I think he can bring to the table. 15-20 HRs and 10-15 SBs are probably the projection ranges for Saunders, and he isn't going to be a big help in the AVG department in all likelihood, but for those of you in OBP-based formats, Saunders suddenly becomes rather interesting. He posted a 11.5% BB rate last season, good for almost .100 points of OBP. Add in a little bit of AVG regression to the positive (22% LD rate but a BABIP under .300) and you've potentially got a helping OBP along with the decent power and speed. The Mariner offense should be a lot better this year to boot, so for me, Saunders should definitely be valued much more highly than his current position as the 100th OF drafted.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Yasmani Grandal - Grandal returned a bit earlier than expected, giving some hope that he will be ready to break camp with the Padres instead of starting the season on the DL. Still just 25 years old, Grandal offers solid contact rates and power to go along with an excellent walk rate, and is clearly underrated presently as the 32nd catcher off the board this spring. Last year's AVG was depressed by a .257 BABIP...that's an area that I would project to be a strength for Grandal, along with expectations of 10-15 HRs and 50-60 RBIs. I believe him to be a worthwhile selection in all formats save shallow leagues that require only one catcher.
Tommy Medica and small sample sizes - We're starting to see Tommy Medica go off the boards in some deeper leagues on the strength of his 500/533/786 28-AB spring thus far, so perhaps we should look at what he brings to the table. Soon-to-be 26, Medica had never played above AA when the Padres brought him up for a cup of coffee last summer, and Medica managed a 290/380/449 through 69 ABs with 3 homers in what was essentially his first exposure to top-level pitching. Medica has shown plenty of power at the lower levels and hit 18 homers in about a half-season at AA last year, so there's certainly a bit of upside, but a guy that's fanning 21% of the time at AA is probably going to be well over 30% in that category in MLB, and there's also the issue of Yonder Alonso and Kyle Blanks in front of him. I suspect that Medica is just a nice spring story, and that the contact rate will forever prohibit him from any consistent success at the top level, but there's just enough of a track record here (and flawed players in front of him) where a flyer in those deep leagues might be warranted.
Robbie Grossman - Grossman is penciled in as the starting LF for Houston this year, and on the heels of a 322/351/466 performance from July on in 2013, there's a bit of upside here. Grossman is an extremely patient hitter, posting walk rates of at least 11% at every minor league stop of his career to go along with a 40.1% swing rate last season with Houston. His contact rate is not poor, but he strikes out quite a bit simply due to patience. Because of that, I don't expect the AVG to be a hindrance to him as much as it is to other high-K rate players. Grossman doesn't have a ton of power, likely projecting to 8-12 homers for a full season, but he does have enough speed to expect 15-20 steals. All in all, due to the below-average power potential, Grossman fits best as a 5th OF in 16-team mixed leagues or deeper, or as a reserve in 14-team mixed leagues. Still just 24, any bump in power would vault him into consideration in all formats.
Starling Marte - Marte has some pretty significant upside if he can continue some of the gains that he made last year, particularly in terms of contact rate. He clearly has 30-40 SB speed (as evidenced by last year's 41 SB) and developing power (12 HR last year at age 24), but the 75% contact rate was a bit better than I exppected from him based on his prior performances both in the minors and with the Pirates. If he can continue to improve in that area, a .300 AVG and 15-20 HRs would be a reasonable expectation, and would put him into borderline #1 OF territory.
Jake Odorizzi - Odorizzi is, marginally, the frontrunner for the fifth starter's spot in Tampa that will be vacant until Jeremy Hellickson returns to health. Odorizzi is solid average in almost every respect: he has four pitches, three of which grade out as average, his control is average, his K rate is average, and his flyball tendencies likely make him a slightly below-average option on the whole. Odorizzi has a high floor and a fairly low ceiling, making him a better option for deeper leagues than for shallow leagues at present, and he isn't likely to remain in the rotation once Hellickson returns unless he drastically outperforms his projections. Still, a nearly-average starter can be a valuable commodity in deeper leagues, and as such he is worth a look as a #5 starter in those formats.
Josh Rutledge - Rutledge was completely awful for Colorado last year, losing the 2B job to slap-hitting DJ LeMahieu and ending up in AAA for a large part of the year. Predictably, he hit 371/444/587 down there, and in 58 September ABs for the Rockies he recovered to hit 328/381/431 with 1 HR and 4 SB, giving hope that had recovered his 2012 form. For some reason, it appears that LeMahieu still has the inside track on the starting job, but Rutledge is the guy to watch for here. LeMahieu has virtually no upside: last year's .280 with 2 HRs and 18 SBs is about the maximum that he might offer. The soon-to-be 25 year old Rutledge, however, could give you 15-20 HRs and 15-20 SBs if he can pick up enough playing time. He's a solid stash in most formats even if he doesn't win the job immediately, as he is very likely to get a chance at some point in the year, and his upside is easily top-12 caliber at the position.
Welington Castillo - Heading into his second season as the starting backstop for the Cubs, Castillo had a bit of a power drop last year to go along with an improvement in contact rate that helped him to a .274 AVG. Castillo showed 12-15 HR power pretty consistently in the minors, so while the potential exists for a bit of regression in AVG (likely not below the .260 range), there should be a bit more power on display this season, something that should bump his value up into the range of a 2nd catcher in all formats.
Jonathan Schoop - Schoop is acquitting himself well thus far in the 2B battle for Baltimore, and he clearly possesses more upside than Weeks and Flaherty. He managed 15 homers in just 94 games last season across four levels as his power continues to grow, and while he doesn't offer the speed that you would prefer to see from a MIF, he could likely give you 10-15 homers already with the prospects of 15-20 within a few seasons. The 22 year old is likely only a MIF in deeper leagues (14-team mixed or deeper) if he wins the job, but those in keeper leagues would be best served to snap him up now, as it is very likely that he will be the starting 2b in Baltimore for the foreseeable future at some point this season.
