Chris Young (OF - NYM). Rebound Candidate or Bust?
In an effort to upgrade what was essentially a Triple A outfield in 2013, the Mets signed Chris Young to a one-year, $7.2M contract, with the idea of starting him in their outfield in 2014. Young suffered through a subpar year with Oakland in 2013, slashing just .200/.280/.379, with 12 HR, 40 RBI and 10 SB in only 375 plate appearances. Despite those off-putting numbers, I like Young to provide sneaky value in 2014. While he while always be a drag on batting average, Young's 2013 numbers were dragged down by an especially low .237 BABIP, which is not likely to be repeated, given Young's speed and 22.9% career line drive rate. If Young's average simply rebounds to his career BA of .235, he can provide value as a 5th OF in deep mixed leagues and/or NL only leagues. We project Young to hit 19 HRs and steal 16 bases. That makes Young a bargain, given his 26th round ADP, as long as you can balance out his BA downside with other higher average hitters.
Avisail Garcia (OF-CWS). Prospects for 2014
I am bullish on Garcia's prospects for 2014. Garcia finished the 2013 season with a slash line of .283/.309/.422, to go with 7 HR, 31 RBI and 3 SBs. His numbers improved dramatically after his trade to the White Sox, though. His plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired (as evidenced by his 3.5 BB% and a 23.0 K%. However, at just 22 years old, he has certainly held his own at the major league level, sporting a .422 slugging percentage. While he flashed some speed in the minors (including stealing 23 bases over two levels in 2012), he is unlikely to be able to steal much more than 10 bases per season in the majors, given his continued physical maturation and the increased difficulty of stealing bases at the major league level. Nonetheless, he is expected to flash increased power as he matures, and playing his home games in a bandbox like the Cell certainly won't hurt his power numbers. All-in-all, Garcia makes for an interesting late round flier, as it would not be unrealistic to expect a line of .280 20 HR, 80 RBI and 10 SBs in 2014.
Phil Hughes (SP-MIN) Will a Change of Scenery Produce Better Results?
Hughes signed a 3-year, $24M contract with the Twins, following a disappointing final season with the Yankees, during which he posted a horrifying 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. However, there are reasons to be optimistic about Hughes' prospects for 2014. Hughes suffered from an extremely low 68% LOB% and a BABIP of .324, which was substantially higher than his career rate of .294. Hughes' FIP was 4.50 and his xFIP was 4.39, indicating that he pitched at least slightly better than his ERA would indicate. Hughes' peripherals are solid, with a 7.48 k/9 and a 3:1 K:BB rate. Hughes is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, as evidenced by his 30.8% groundball rate. Hughes' skill set was not suited to Yankee Stadium's extreme hitter-friendly dimensions, resulting in an 11.1% HR/FB rate and 1.48 HRs per 9 innings. Target Field's more foregiving dimensions, as well as the generally weaker offenses in the AL Central, should result in a reduction in the number of HRs surrendered by Hughes, with a corresponding reduction in ERA. This, coupled with Hughes' consistently-solid K numbers, makes him an intriguing sleeper in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.
Howie Kendrick (2B-LAA) Underrated 2B Option?
After a number of years of being overhyped, Howie Kendrick may now actually qualify as a bargain in 2014. Kendrick's 2013 counting stats were hampered by a lengthy stay on the DL, but he still posted a solid .297/.335/.439 slash line, with 13 HR and 54 RBI. Kendrick's .340 BABIP was right in line with his career number, which indicates that the BA should be sustainable. Kendrick's HR total was inflated by a 15.7% HR/FB rate (5% higher than his career number), so it is probably not realistic to expect 20 HR power from Kendrick, but, assuming he is able to stay healthy for a full season, something along the lines of 15 HR and 70 RBI should be easily attainable, particularly in light of the fact that the Angels should be better offensively in 2014 (our projections program has Kendrick slashing .290/.322/.428, with 15 HRs, 66 RBI and 7 SBs). This, together with Kendrick's consistent BA (no lower than .279 in the last 5 years) makes Kendrick an attractive option once the upper-tier 2B (i.e., Cano, Pedroia, etc.) are off the board.
Brett Oberholtzer (SP-HOU) In the Immortal Words of Harry Caray, "There's Danger Here, Cherie"
At first glance, Brett Oberholtzer's stats from his 10 start audition with the Astros in 2013 would seem to make him a possible choice as a late-round sleeper. Oberholtzer went 4-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 71.2 innings. However, a closer look at Oberholtzer's peripherals indicates that he is best avoided in all formats. Oberholtzer benefited from a .260 BABIP, which is unlikely to be repeated. He also allowed only .88 HR/9 despite a 35.6% GB rate. This kind of good fortune in keeping the ball in the park is also unlikely to be repeated. Finally, Oberholtzer5.65 struck out only per nine innings, which greatly reduces his value for fantasy purposes. A truer measure of Oberholtzer's likely performance would be the 4.37 ERA he posted at AAA before his call up or his 4.27 xFIP at the major league level. We project Oberholtzer to post a 4.74 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 2014, making him a pitcher to avoid despite his gaudy 2013 stats.
Leonys Martin (OF - TEX) Possible Breakout in 2014?
Martin had a fairly successful full season debut in 2013. However, I expect even bigger things for him in 2014. Martin posted a .260/.313/.385 slash line in 2013 with 8 HRs and 36 SBs. His average was suppressed by 20.5 K%, which kept his average down despite his .319 BABIP (although that BABIP is probably low for a player with Martin's speed). Martin has demonstrated better strike zone control in the minors and, with a full year's experience under his belt, I would anticipate the K% to drop and the BA to increase. I would also expect a few more HRs from Martin, as he hit 12 HRs in only 260 ABs in AAA in 2012. I like Martin as a cheap source of 5 category production after the stud 5 category OFs (McCutchen, Harper, Ellsbury, etc.) are off the board. We project Martin to post a .275/.322/.417 line with 9 HRs (which I think is probably conservative) with 30 SBs, which is certainly acceptable value given his current 13th round ADP.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Jhoulys Chacin (SP - COL). Chacin, who is currently suffering from a shoulder strain, is expected to resume light throwing in a few days. Chacin, who is currently expected to be the Rockies' opening day starter, posted 3.47 ERA with 14 Ws in 2013 and could be a source of good value in 2014, given most people's aversion to Colorado starters. Chacin's ERA was not a fluke as it matched his FIP exactly. His lack of Ks (only 5.75 per 9 innings) limits his fantasy value, but he would make a perfectly acceptable SP6 in deeper leagues, assuming he can rebound from the shoulder issues in time to be ready for Opening Day.
Grady Sizemore (OF - BOS). According to Boston manager John Farrell, Sizemore "felt great" Friday after his first action since 2011. Sizemore is a long shot to be fantasy relevant in 2014, given his persistent health issues, but the Red Sox seem to have a knack for making lemonade out of lemons and if Sizemore could even return to his 2009 production of .248/.343/.445 with 18 HRs and 13 SBs, he would be a bargain. His spring training performance certainly bears watching.
Chris Tillman (SP - BAL). Tillman twirled 2 scoreless innings on Friday and struck out 3 against the Rays. Tillman has outperformed his peripherals for two years in a row now, but I would not be willing to bet he'll be able to realize the trifecta by repeating that success in 2014. Tillman's 3.71 ERA was more than half a run lower than his 4.42 FIP, and his .269 BABIP and 80.5% LOB % both scream for regression. Particularly given his address in the AL East, I will let someone else take the chance that Tillman can make it three years in a row of outperforming his peripherals.
Jemile Weeks (2B - BAL). Weeks doubled, walked, scored 2 runs and stole a base against the Rays on Friday. Weeks is competing with Ryan Flaherty for the Orioles' 2B job, and Weeks offers much more fantasy interest if he can win the job. Although Weeks flopped in his last shot at a full-time role with the A's in 2012, his .221 BA that year was the result of significant bad luck in the form of a .256 BABIP (extremely low for a player with Weeks' speed). Weeks' AAA batting average of .271 last year is probably a truer indication of his abilities. Weeks hit leadoff for the Orioles on Friday and if he could win the 2B and leadoff jobs for Baltimore, he could provide significant value with his speed at a scarce position.
Joe Kelly (SP -STL). The Cardinals announced Friday that Jaime Garcia (shoulder) will not resume throwing for 10 -15 days, which means that Joe Kelly will almost certainly start the season in the St. Louis rotation. Kelly was a revelation for the Cards in 2013, posting 10 wins while pitching to the tune of a 2.69 ERA. However, I would not immediately start jumping Kelly up on my draft board. His FIP and xFIP for 2013 were 4.01 and 4.19, respectively and he posted a 1.35 WHIP, which means he was extremely fortunate in keeping baserunners from scoring once he put them on base (as further evidenced by his 82.4% strand rate. There is almost no way Kelly can duplicate his 2013 ERA and he does not offer enough in the way of Ks (5.73 K/9 in 2013) to offset the ERA and WHIP downside, especially given that Garcia will be waiting in the wings to take Kelly's rotation spot in the event of any stumbles. Let someone else gamble on Kelly's ability to repeat his 2013 good fortune.
Zack Greinke (SP - LAD). Greinke, who strained his calf on Thursday, is likely to throw his regularly scheduled bullpen session on Saturday. Although there is some speculation that this injury could cause the Dodgers to leave Greinke behind on their trip to Australia to play the Diamondbacks, it should not have any long-term impacts on Greinke's fantasy value for 2014. Greinke is a stud, and while he may not be able to quite match his 2013 performance (he benefited from a .276 BABIP and a 80.8% strand rate), he should still be one of the first pitchers in the second tier of starters off the board.
Chase Headley (3B - SD). Headley, who is suffering from a strained calf, has not yet resumed hitting. Headley is expected to miss two to three weeks, but is still expected to be ready for the start of the season. Headley is a mild bounce back candidate in 2013, although no one should expect a return to 2013 numbers. We project him to post a .270/.359/.438 slash line with 20 HRs. Obviously, this would require that he be able to start the season on time, so his health status should be monitored during the rest of spring training.
Brian McCann (C - NYY). McCann hit his first HR of the spring on Friday. The move to Yankee Stadium should prove beneficial to McCann, who hit 20 HR in only 402 ABs in an injury-shortened 2013 season. McCann's .256 BA in 2013 was suppressed by a .261 BABIP, which was almost 30 points below McCann's career average. We project McCann to hit .266 with 27 HRs in his debut season in NY.
L.J. Hoes (OF - HOU). Hoes is considered the current favorite to start in RF for the Astros. Hoes posted a .282/.332/.365 line in 184 plate appearances between Baltimore and Houston in 2013. Hoes possesses little power (only 4 HR in a combined 614 PAs between AAA and the majors) although he does possess some speed (14 SBs between his two stops). Hoes is not a recommended option, not only because of his lack of power, but also because he is probably only keeping an OF spot warm for George Springer, who will likely be called up as soon as the Super Two deadline has passed.
Pedro Alvarez (3B- PIT). Alvarez doubled twice and drove in two runs on Friday against the Blue Jays. Alvarez is sort of the 3B version of Adam Dunn. He offers power (36 HRs in 2013) but also strikes out at a 30% clip, which limits his BA upside to probably .250 at the most. He is expected to bat cleanup for the Pirates in 2014 (unless they are able to sign a 1B to occupy that spot), which should help his counting totals, but the batting average will continue to be a drain on his fantasy value. We have him ranked as the 15th most valuable 3B, despite projecting him to hit 32 HR. His current 6th round ADP is too rich for my blood, especially considering the likely availability of 3B such as Chase Headley and Brett Lawrie six rounds later.
