CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Adam Eaton - I'm intrigued by Eaton's fantasy value this year, as it looks like he'll be the everyday leadoff man and the team has already come out and said that he will have the "green light" on the bases, which hopefully means that we will see a lot more basestealing attempt than we did in AZ. Even more intriguing to me is the fact that he shows signs of being more than your typical slap hitter with speed, with a career minor league ISO of .153. He's hit .300 or better at every minor league level save 35 AAA ABs last year, his contact rate is excellent and he will take a walk, and he doesn't have an appreciable platoon split. I think the potential is there for Eaton to be one of the better leadoff hitters in the game, and I'm very optimistic for his 2014.
Matt Davidson - Davidson has the inside track on the White Sox 3B job this spring, although he will have to battle with Jeff Keppinger and Conor Gillaspie. Davidson will be 23 when the season starts, and has solid power and plate discipline as his primary attributes. He does swing and miss an awful lot, making me question those who forecast him to approach the median in the AVG department, but the amount of hard contact that he makes should allow him to be something other than a millstone there. His value will be predicated on his HR totals though, as he isn't likely to offer anything in terms of speed and he has the aforementioned contact issues weighing on the AVG. Davidson has popped between 20-23 HRs in each of the past three years, and he should get a bit of an assist from the 7th best HR park in the majors. All told, if Davidson gets the playing time that I expect, I would expect something in the .240-.250 range with 15-18 HRs and 50-60 RBIs. That probably keeps him off the board in many mixed leagues, even as a CI, but he could provide some value in AL-only leagues and deeper mixed formats at a reasonable price, and there is some power upside here through sheer physical maturation over the next few years as well.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Oswaldo Arcia - Arcia is as exciting as a young power hitter stuck in a poor lineup and a pitchers' park can be, as the 22 year old not only hit 14 homers in 97 games last year, he did it with some peripheral stats that suggest that more power might be forthcoming. Let's get the warts out of the way: Arcia's contact rate is poor, he doesn't run well, his power is substantially mitigated against LHP, and the team is awful. All that means that the AVG isn't likely to be too much of a help no matter how much hard contact he makes, and the RBI and R totals aren't going to be all that impressive. The exciting thing is that Arcia ranked 14th in MLB in both average HR distance and average FB distance, and he did that as a 22 year old. He also did that while having the lowest HR/FB rate of the group by a fairly substantial margin (over 35% below the average). What that means to me is that if Arcia plays a full season in 2014, it would be a major surprise for him to hit fewer than 20 HR, and 25-30 is a more reasonable target range than 20-25 if he plays 145 games. He's probably going to be a bit of a one-trick pony, but for the projections that I've seen, I'd certainly take the over on the HR total.
Josmil Pinto - We all tend to get impatient when players have a nice cup of coffee, appear poised for a breakout, and then are blocked by their teams with an offseason acquisition, but with only a handful of games above AA (and only about 3/4 of a season at AA itself), Pinto could likely benefit from a bit more seasoning either as a backup or in the minors. Kurt Suzuki shouldn't provide much of a roadblock once Pinto is deemed ready, a situation that I would expect to occur before the end of 2014. That being the case, Pinto is likely still worth a late selection in deeper leagues this year as a 2nd catcher, understanding that his value will likely be the greatest late in the season. Pinto has a monstrous 20-game callup last year for the Twins, hitting .342 with 5 2Bs and 4 HRs. He has above average raw power and hits enough line drives (and makes enough contact) to expect a helping average to boot....think .280ish with 20-25 HRs as an upside. He could easily be an above-average starting C as soon as the 2nd half this year, although the surrounding environment (both park and team) limit his upside at bit at present. I like him quite a bit for a guy that isn't expected to play much early on, and I'd definitely target him where appropriate even knowing the playing time situation.
SEATTLE MARINERS
James Paxton - I'm definitely intrigued by Paxton, who's sliding under the radar a bit behind the 1 and 1A of Hernandez and Iwakuma and the brighter prospect in Taijuan Walker. Paxton is a lefty that throws 95 mph with a solid curve, and he seems to keep the ball down fairly well also. Control and inconsistency have been his two issues during his progression through the system, but the 25 year old seemed to pitch much better after taking care of a knee-related issue in 2012. The home park is helpful, the offense should be much-improved, and (if he wins the spot, which I expect) pitching out of the 5th spot should alleviate some of the typical rookie concerns about pressure. I expect the WHIP to have less upside than the ERA and K numbers due to the occasionally spotty control, but there is quite a bit of upside here.
Abraham Almonte - There are a lot of cooks in the kitchen here, with Ackley, Saunders, Morrison, and Hart all vying for time between the 3 OF spots and DH, but with the injury histories of the latter three players, I'm intrigued by the possibility of Abraham Almonte accumulating some value as the first man off the bench in the OF. Almonte is 24 and had a nice power spike last year, picking up 17 HR and 27 SB at three levels. He is a very patient hitter, which should give him even greater value in OBP-oriented formats, and the power still seems to be developing, offering him a bit of upside as well. I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't pick up at least a half-season's worth of playing time....I'd say there is a pretty negligible chance that both Morrison and Hart make it through the year unscathed. As a last OF option in deeper AL-only formats or the deepest of mixed leagues, he offers quite a bit more upside than most available for that space.
ATLANTA BRAVES
Brandon Beachy - I'm curious to see Brandon Beachy this spring, as if his velocity jumps back up a notch to its pre-injury level, I expect him to produce at a level commensurate with that of a #2 starter. His excellent control and solid supporting cast give him a pretty high floor, and the swinging strike%, although not elite, should offer up better than average K rates as well. He's being drafted at the value of a #4 or #5 starter at present, and if he's healthy I'd venture to guess that he is the single most likely starter in that area to outperform that draft position.
Jason Heyward - In what might be best viewed as a lost year to injury in the rearview mirror, Heyward still posted the best contact rate of his career, and he managed to only slip a bit in the power categories. It's impossible to write off a guy with this much raw talent, especially when he's still just 24. With shoulder, hamstring, and jaw injuries along with an appendectomy in 2013, I'm inclined to give him a pass to some extent. He's still on the upward slope of his career in all likelihood, and the 30-HR potential remains intact as far as I can tell. The AVG and SB totals are likely to be a bit less than we all initially hoped, but the star potential remains. I would definitely look to acquire him for 2014, as it is very possible that we will not see his value lower for many years.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Bryce Harper - I'm a bit surprised at how little news I've seen on Harper this spring, as the now-21 year old is somehow surrounded by a bit of an aura of disappointment after a 274/368/486 season as a 20 year old. Harper was likely very limited by injuries sustained in a collision with the wall in May last year, yet he managed to increase his BB rate, improve his contact rate, and slightly increase his power. All at age 20 and with the aforementioned injury issues. There is still virtually limitless upside here, and I would strongly consider him much before the #13 ADP where he is currently positioned. He's one of the closer comparables that we've seen to Mickey Mantle in the last 40 years, albeit perhaps not in personality.
Will Middlebrooks - The value of Middlebrooks has definitely been assisted by the lack of Stephen Drew in the fold, as Middlebrooks is once again slated to be the starting 3B. Despite a dramatic drop in batting average (fueled by a BABIP decline from .335 to .263 more than anything else), Middlebrooks did manage 27 homers between AAA and the bigs last year, and should be expected to pop 20 homers playing every day regardless of the other facets of his game. I do expect the AVG to improve from last year's dismal .227, but his lack of plate discipline (and a swinging strike% of 11.5) make a return to the .280's unlikely despite the hard contact that he makes rather consistently. Something in the .250 range with 20 HRs and a handful of steals is likely as a starter, making him a reasonable late-game choice in most formats.
Anthony Rizzo - Rizzo struggled mightily down the stretch of his first full MLB season, slugging just .389 in the second half and finishing the year with an uninspiring .233 AVG to go along with 23 homers and 80 RBIs. He did manage to improve his swinging strike% and BB rate, but those were really the only bright spots in a very disappointing year. His minor league power numbers were fantastic from 2010-2012, and at just 24 years of age there remains some hope that more of that pop will translate at the top level. My concern is more with the AVG than the power, which I believe can steady in the 25-30 HR range with perhaps a bit of upside from there. The key to improvement for Rizzo is against same-side pitching, a skill that he exhibited in the minor leagues that has disappeared in MLB. He hit 189/282/342 in 190 ABs against lefties last season, and with a potential lefty-basher hanging around in Mike Olt, he may not have as much of a leash as you think. Rizzo is still young enough to dream on a .280 with 35 HR upside, albeit in a lineup that is going to be poor but improving for the next few years. I think he's merely a decent CI in 12-team mixed leagues this season and clearly rosterable in any format deeper than that.
Danny Salazar - How can you not be excited about Danny Salazar and his 14.6% swinging strike rate last year? Salazar will probably be capped around 170 IP this year, and he does allow a ton of flyballs, but that's probably the extent of my reservations about him. Huge K rates and solid control are the first things that jump out, and he gets to face three bottom-tier offenses a disproportionate amount of the time. There are a number of young pitchers with huge upsides in the AL this season (Walker and Paxton in SEA, Tanaka and Pineda in NY, Ventura in KC, etc.), but in my mind Salazar is no less exciting than the others. I would certainly try to add him in all formats.
Alex Guerrero - It's always an interesting spring training battle when you have virtually no idea what to expect, as the Dodgers are 100% in win-now mode yet appear to be trotting out three very limited options offensively, regardless of who wins the positional battles in question. Of the group at C, 2B, and SS, Alex Guerrero is the least known with potentially the highest upside. Guerrero only hit .215 through roughly a half-season's worth of ABs in Cuba, so you'd have to think that his upside is pretty limited here in MLB, but he did manage a .193 ISO, which even translated would result in more pop than the average 2B. Dee Gordon has shown a bit more of what he can do, and his value is basically limited to a few singles against RHP and some steals, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Guerrero get the first crack at the job. I don't think he's worth more than a late-game flyer in the deepest of formats, but we just don't have enough data to work from to say that with any degree of certainty. Watching his performance this spring likely matters more than it would for most players.
Matt Garza - It's hard to argue with Matt Garza's upside in 2014, moving back to the easier league and into the Central to boot. He's posted over a 10% swinging strike rate as an NL pitcher, and his control continued to improve in 2013 despite some more arm (and lat) issues. The best thing about Garza is that, throughout his career, he's either been above-average or injured. He is a very safe bet as a back-end starter in shallow leagues, because if he's hurt the replacement options are palatable for the most part, and he'll offer you value when healthy. Somewhat ironically, he's a bit more of a gamble in deeper leagues, as he's been injured almost as much as not the past two seasons. Still, I'd be more inclined to roll with him than a lot of the other names around his current draft position (#53 SP), as I feel pretty comfortable that he will offer at least mid-rotation value if the arm holds up.
Danny Duffy - Behind James Shields in the KC rotation is a rather uninspiring trio of arms (Guthrie, Chen, and Vargas), but behind that group is a lot to dream on with Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, and Kyle Zimmer. Ventura has the highest upside, but Duffy has the most experience of the group. A 25 year old lefty with a 95 mph fastball, Duffy has been held back by control issues and injuries since breaking in with the Royals three years ago. He's exhibited stretches of dominance throughout his minor league career, offering up huge K rates offset by sizable flyball and BB rates. Yesterday's first spring action was classic Duffy, allowing two runs and a homer over two innings of work with four strikeouts. He's still inexperienced enough for there to be hope for more, but he's still far more potential than production at this point. His upside, particularly in K's, insists that he remain on your radar.
Cody Asche - I think Cody Asche has quite a bit more upside than he's being given credit for (currently the #43 3B off the board). He finished last year with 20 HR and 12 SB split between AAA and the majors, and he's hit over .300 in the minors the past two seasons. Yes, he has Maikel Franco breathing down his neck now, but I expect him to start the year as the 3B for the Phillies, and if he's able to perform well he isn't going to lose playing time. Last year's .287 BABIP isn't really supported at all by his batted ball data (21% LD rate first and foremost), so there should be some improvement in AVG, and 15 homers and a handful of steals seem a fairly solid forecast for him as well. I expect him to easily be worth a spot in deeper leagues at an inexpensive value, and the possibility of Asche finishing the year as a top-20 3B is very real in my opinion.
J.P. Arencibia - The 28 year old Arencibia has contact issues that have likely crossed the line from troublesome to irretrievably awful, yet yesterday's news that Geovany Soto had a bone removed from his left foot and will be sidelined for at least three weeks definitely gives Arencibia the inside track at the starting C spot on Opening Day. With a borderline top-5 offense, any playing time bump with the Rangers can increase value significantly, even for a one-trick pony like Arencibia. I have a tough time drafting players that are that limited, but he does carry some value in the deepest of leagues as a cheap power source.
