Milwaukee Brewers
Jonathan Lucroy-MIL-C: Top Fantasy Catcher or Career Year in 2013?
Some fantasy owners will question whether last year was a fluke for Lucroy or was it the beginning of Lucroy establishing himself as a top tier option at catcher? Lucroy was on his way to posting a very productive season in 2012, but then his wife dropped a suitcase on his hand and he was forced to miss the rest of 2012. This allowed Lucroy to fly under the radar on draft day in 2013. Lucroy slashed a very respectable .280/18/82 and even through in 9 SB's in 2013. His peripheral numbers suggest that he will be a good candidate to increase his production in 2014. Lucroy maintains an almost even GB/FB ratio at 1.03. He also had an 87% contact rate and a 22.8 LD%, which indicates that he will continue to hit for a respectable average while providing above average power numbers from the catcher position. The stolen bases are just a bonus. With Joe Mauer making the transition to 1B, Lucroy should be one of the top catchers drafted along with Buster Posey and Yadier Molina.
Carlos Gomez-MIL-OF: Speedster or Power Hitter?
Carlos Gomez was always fantasy relevant because of his pure speed and SB potential. Late in 2012, Gomez made a change to his swing and mental approach, he went on to hit 14 HR in the second half compared to only 5 in the first. Something clicked for Gomez and he carried it into slashing a cool .295/14/45 with 21 SB in the first half of 2013. However, if you look at his secondary stats, Gomez was a bit lucky in 2013, evident by his .344 BABIP and his low 74% contact rate. He should see a decline in his batting average. Gomez should continue to be an intriguing blend of power and speed. It would not surprise me to see Gomez enter the 30/30 club in 2014, with an average in the .260-.270 range.
Cincinnati Reds
Joey Votto-CIN-1B: What to make of Joey Votto?
Joey Votto views his job as a hitter differently than most professional hitters. Votto will only swing at pitches that he can drive and is not afraid to take a walk even with men in scoring position. Votto was often criticized this past season for only driving in 73 runs, which his lowest total in his career. Votto ranked 27th among number three hitters for RBI's this past season. Votto had an incredible .360 BABIP last season, but that was largely supported by his 27% LD. Votto continues to be one of the best pure hitters in the game. If he decides to be more aggressive with runners in scoring position, Votto will return to being a top 5 fantasy option. Votto posted a very solid 18% HR/FB ratio. If you play in a league that rewards OBP or OPS, Votto should be one of your top picks.
Brandon Phillips-CIN-2B: Will he rebound at an age where most continue to decline?
Brandon Phillips has been a model for consistency for fantasy 2B. He was able to bring a blend of power and speed at a historically shallow position. However, Phillips is no longer in his prime (33yrs old) and his AVG, OBP, .SLG, and ISO have declined each year since 2011. On top of that, Phillips only totaled 5 SB's last year. Phillips was able to increase his RBI total to 103, which was the product of OBP machines, Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto. Look for Phillips RBI total to return to the 75-80 range. Even though Phillips is in the decline phase of his career, he stills brings good value at a fairly shallow position, just don't expect Phillips to be the power/speed threat he once was.
St. Louis Cardinals
Carlos Martinez-STL-Battle for the 5th rotation spot.
Carlos Martinez was able to crack the Cardinals roster in May of last year. He had been used primarily as a SP in the minors, but the Cardinals used him out of the bullpen in 2013. Heading into the 2014, Martinez is in competition for the final spot in the Cardinals rotation. Martinez owns a stat line of 2.69 ERA and a 9.3 K/9 ratio in 68 minor league starts. Martinez boasts a mid 90's fastball mixed with a nasty curve and a change-up. Martinez will be worth owning in mixed leagues if he wins that final spot in the rotation. He will most likely be on an innings limit, but the potential upside and high K rate make him an intriguing option to keep your eye on if he can beat out Joe Kelly.
Peter Bourjos-STL-OF: Will he steal enough playing time to total 40 SB?
Peter Bourjos stated during an interview in Spring Training that his goal for 2014 is to steal 40 bases. Bourjos did mention that it all depended upon how he hit, as to how many times he would be on base. Bourjos has a paltry 6.2 BB% in his major league career. He does not walk much, so his running prowess will be determined by his ability to hit himself on base. As of right now, it looks like he most likely will be platooning with Jon Jay in CF. Without regular playing time, Bourjos has little chance of reaching the 40 SB total. His value in fantasy leagues is dependent upon his SB potential. Keep an eye on Bourjos and Jay's playing time early on.
Around the League
Albert Pujols-LAA-1B
Albert Pujols career has taken a turn for the worse since he signed with the Angels in after the 2011 season. Much of the decline can be blamed on age and injuries. Pujols is no longer in the prime of his career. He has dealt with injuries that past two years that affected his play. He had knee surgery last offseason, which slowed his recovery and eventually led to an acute case of plantar fasciitis, which forced him to sit out most 2013. Pujols is completely healthy entering the 2014 campaign. He was able to complete an offseason training and hitting program as usual. Pujols has seen a drop in BB% and an increase in K% each of the past four years. Also over the past four years, he has also seen a drop in AVG, OPS, and ISO. However, if Pujols is completely healthy, a bounce back season is not out of the question. He will not be contending to be the first pick like in years past, but he can still be a valuable run producer.
Ike Davis- NYM-1B
Ike Davis's name has been in trade rumors all offseason. The Orioles and Pirates have been known to have interest in Davis. Davis had a dismal 2013. He slashed .205/9/33 for the Mets. Davis has to win the starting 1B job during Spring Training this year. Davis has reportedly cut down on the movement of hands during his swing, which led him to be inconsistent and his low contact rates. Davis does have serious pop in his bat via his 32 HR's in 2012. He struggles mightily against lefties, .145 AVG in 2013. For Davis to be relevant in fantasy leagues, he is going to have to get regular playing time and provide some pop, both of which are in serious question right now.
Brett Gardner-NYY-OF
Brett Gardner signed a new 4yr/$52M extension with the Yankees. From a fantasy perspective Gardner, brings value via his SB totals. Gardner was able to steal 24 bases in 2013. He should also be a candidate to score a decent number of runs hitting a top the Yankees lineup. Gardner also does well in the RBI category for being a speedster. All around Gardner would be a solid addition to your roster and he could be had towards the end of most drafts.
Justin Verlander- DET- SP
Verlander surprised the baseball world by having core muscle repair surgery late in the offseason. Verlander's doctor said that it was only a matter of time before his abdominal region gave way on that side. It could explain some of the struggles that Verlander had in 2013 finding his delivery. The good news has been that Verlander has healed quickly and is progressing very nicely. Owners should not be concerned and he should be one of the first pitchers drafted in 2014.
Mike Minor-ATL-SP
Mike Minor underwent a procedure on his uretha in late December. This plus some shoulder soreness has put Minor behind other Brave starters. The medical staff in Atlanta is still hoping that he will not have to miss a regular season start. Minor was able to throw 205 innings in 2013 and posted a 3.21 ERA with 181 K's. Hitters had a below league average .271 BABIP against Minor in 2013. He might be in for a slight regression in 2014.
Oscar Taveras-STL-OF
Taveras has been eased into Spring Training because of his surgically repaired ankle. The Cardinals are expected to allow Taveras to pick up the intensities of his workouts. Taveras owns a .320/.377/.518 career line in the minors. He has the talent to be a star at the next level, but it is looking more and more likely that he will start the season in Triple A. He will have to play well enough for the Cardinals to open up a spot for him in their lineup.
Ben Zobrist-TB-2B, SS, OF
Ben Zobrist has been valuable to fantasy owners the past couple of years because of his position eligibility at 2B, SS, and OF. Zobrist does a little bit of everything as a hitter as well. Both his power and SB totals were down from a year ago, but none of Zobrist's secondary stats suggest that he is declining. Look for Zobrist to bounce back with an increase in HR and RBI's, while giving you a solid return of around 10 SB.
Jhonny Peralta-STL- SS
Jhonny Peralta signed a 4yr/$53M deal with St. Louis this off season coming off a year in which he was suspended 50 games for PED use. It is interesting that Stephen Drew continues to be without a team willing to pay for his services. Peralta slashed .303/11/55 in limited action in 2013. Don't count on the .300 average from Peralta again in 2014. Peralta had a very high .374 BABIP and .307 singles rate, which were way above his normal rates. Peralta at the age of 32 is due for a decline in 2014 based upon his peripheral stats and who knows how much being PED free will hurt his production.
Adam Dunn-CHIW-1B/OF
The White Sox have come out and said that Dunn will see time in the OF during the 2014 season. They currently have a log jam at 1B with Jose Abreu and Paul Konerko coming back for his fairwell tour. Dunn at the age of 34 has been on a steady decline the past couple of years. Dunn will be a batting avg. killer in most leagues, but will provide decent power for cheap in draft rooms in 2014.
Masashiro Tanaka-NYY-SP
Will Tanaka be the next Japanese star SP to make a seamless transition to the MLB? By all accounts from camp so far, the Yankees might have made a wise decision in signing Tanaka to sure up their starting rotation. Tanaka needs to make the transition to throwing every five days instead of every week in Japan. He also needs to make the transition to a slightly larger American baseball. Tanaka does throw six different pitches. Yankee Stadium and the American League East will make any pitchers season a nightmare. It will be interesting to see to what level of success Tanaka has and how fast he is able to achieve it. Drafting Tanaka will be for those who are willing to take a risk based upon potential and hype.
