Dodgers 2B job
battle
Early reports on
Alex Guerrero defensively appear to be encouraging, making him the
heavy favorite for this job given the team's $28 million investment. Dee
Gordon, Justin Turner, and Chone Figgins represent the competition, but
Guerrero's offensive potential should get him the nod. It also has to be
encouraging that Guerrero showed up to camp a full two weeks early to work
on his defense with Dodgers coaches. If I were to guess as to his upside
this year, I'd say .280/.350/.475 with 20-25 home runs and very few
steals. Gordon could put himself in the mix with a strong performance at
the plate, as he's added some much-needed muscle this offseason. He could
make it interesting if he can hit in the .300 range this spring while
showcasing that elite speed.
Dodgers #5 starter
This is all Josh
Beckett given his $17 million salary, but until Beckett gets on the
mound in actual game action, he remains a bit of an unknown. Thoracic
outlet syndrome isn't exactly on par with getting treatment for a
hangnail. Beckett made just eight starts last year and is three years
(2011) removed from his last sub-4.65 ERA season, so he's looking more
like a late-round lottery ticket. Still, Beckett is only 33, so if he's
100%, he could have some value. Other "competitors" for the gig include
Paul Maholm (dealing with a sore elbow), perpetual swingman Stephen Fife,
and rookies Zach Lee and Ross Stripling. Chad Billingsley's ETA from Tommy
John surgery remains June 1.
Padres catcher
This one is Yasmani
Grandal's job to lose, but he's rehabbing not only an ACL injury, but
also his image after being popped for a 50-game PED suspension a year ago.
Grandal hit just .216 in 108 at-bats for the Padres last year, though a
1.00 EYE (18:18 K:BB) propelled his OBP to .352. He hit .297/.394/.469 in
60 games for the Padres in 2012, so there appears to be some upside to his
game, but with the injury and the PED issue, he's a bit of a wildcard. In
that ballpark, I wouldn't consider him anything more than a low-end #2
catcher at this point. Nick Hundley has some power potential, but he's
also an AVG-killer (.157 and .233 the past two seasons).
Padres #5 starter
This appears to be
Eric Stults' job to lose, with Robbie Erlin, Burch Smith, and
perhaps Joe Wieland in the mix as well. Stults should win this job
barring a terrible spring after posting a respectable 3.93 ERA in 33
starts a year ago. Stults' 40.4% GB% is a bit low, but the effects of his
flyball tendencies is minimized by Petco Park to some extent. You can see
the effects in his 2013 splits, as Stults had a 3.06 ERA at home versus a
road mark of 4.77. Long-term, Erlin has a good shot at being an effective
starter, but he was up and down with the Padres last year and may need a
bit more Triple-A seasoning.
Rockies Centerfield
With the Rockies
deciding (wisely I might add) to leave Carlos Gonzalez in left
field, the job in center is wide open with this winter's trade of Dexter
Fowler to the Astros. Drew Stubbs, Charlie Blackmon, Brandon Barnes, and
Corey Dickenson are among the names competing. This is also important for
fantasy owners, as it's been reported that the winner of this battle will
be the team's leadoff man. Stubbs has the most upside of the bunch given
that he's stolen 30+ bases three times and has averaged 15 homers a season
since 2010, but he also has a .310 career OBP, which is less than ideal
for a leadoff man. He's somewhat of a darkhorse, but I like Dickerson
here. He has as many as 32 homers in a minor league season and he batted
.371 in 75 games for Triple-A Colorado Springs a year ago. Dickerson then
got in 69 games for the Rockies, batting a so-so .263/.316/.459 with a
0.39 EYE. He has some struggles versus left-handers, so if I were to
guess, Dickerson and Stubbs end up platooning.
Rockies closer
LaTroy
Hawkins is the presumed closer entering camp, but manager Walt Weiss
has already left the door open for Rex Brothers to share the role or
perhaps even take it over outright. The 41 year-old Hawkins had a nice
season in 2013 (7.0 K/9, 1.3 BB/9), but the last time he saved more than
last year's 13 games was back in 2004, so he's on the shortlist of first
closers to become setup men. That said, Hawkins' velocity has remained
steady as he's aged, and the control is obviously still there. He also
does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (48.4% GB% in 2013),
something which should help in Coors Field. Brothers though is the future
after posting a 1.74 ERA and 10.2 K/9 last year, but he'll need to show
improved control (4.8 BB/9) for Weiss to trust him in the ninth inning.
Clayton Kershaw
(SP-LAD) - The way the Dodgers' schedule falls, Kershaw could
conceivably start three of the team's first six games on regular rest
given the Australia series. That said, word from manager Don Mattingly on
Monday was that Kershaw could be held out until the Padres series in order
to minimize his workload this year. Don't panic though, Kershaw is going
to make his 33 start barring an injury, but if you're hoping to get off to
a hot start via his left arm, it may have to wait a bit.
Nick Franklin (SS/2B
- SEA) - The Mariners and Mets are reportedly discussing a deal
involving Franklin, which would be a nice boost to his fantasy value. With
Robinson Cano in town and Brad Miller available to play short, Franklin's
value would be best-served with a trade. He's a former first-round draft
pick who is still just 22, so while his value is down after he hit just
.225/.303/.382 in 102 games for the Mariners last year, Franklin has an
excellent minor league track record. The Mets appear to be less than
thrilled with the idea of handing the job to Ruben Tejeda after his .519
OPS a year ago.
Mike Minor (SP-ATL)
- Minor is battling a sore pitching shoulder this spring and is a bit
behind the other starters. He had groin surgery in the offseason, and word
is that he rushed back and the result was a sore shoulder. He's now
throwing from 120 feet, so there's still plenty of time to get him ready
for Opening Day, but it's also possible that his season is delayed a few
days. Minor had a breakout season for the Braves in 2014, tossing a
career-high 204.2 innings with a career-best 3.21 ERA. He increased his
K/9 year-over-year from 7.3 to 8.0 and lowered his BB/9 from 2.8 to 2.0.
Averaging just 90.4 mph with his fastball, Minor isn't likely to threaten
200 strikeouts, but while we could see that ERA rise a bit, he's still
going to be a very effective fantasy pitcher.
Ervin Santana (free
agent) - Yep, still no team for Santana, who has threatened to remain
on the market until draft pick compensation is not an issue (June) rather
than to accept a Nelson Cruz-like contract (one year, $8 million). The
latest team to express interest is the Colorado Rockies, and that should
make your first thought be around whether you would bet the over or under
on 49.5 home runs allowed. Santana has made at least 30 starts in each of
the last four years, posting a sub-4.00 ERA in three of them, including
last year's 3.24 mark. He also allows a lot of home runs, averaging nearly
30 allowed per season since 2010, including a whopping 39 in 2012. Taking
that game to Coors Field seems sub-optimal. I don't know where he will
sign, but at this rate, seeing him back in KC seems like a very viable
option.
Justin Verlander
(SP-DET) - Verlander threw batting practice on Monday and reported
feeling pleased with how he felt after. Verlander's 2013 was a relative
disappointment, though lots of pitchers would take 218.1 innings of 3.46
ERA ball. Verlander has lost some velocity in each of the past four
seasons, as the average velocity on his fastball has dropped from 95.6 mph
to 93.3 mph during that time. He also saw his control worsen a year ago,
with a 3.1 BB/9 being his worst mark since 2008. That all said, Verlander
posted a 2.27 ERA in September before dominating in the playoffs with a
0.39 mark in 23 innings. He could be a nice buy-low, though you probably
won't be able to buy him all that low.
Oscar Taveras (OF-STL)
- A consensus top-five overall prospect, Taveras was limited to just 46
Triple-A games a year ago due to an ankle injury. He's reportedly feeling
strong this spring, though the Cardinals have yet to give him the green
light to go all out. That should change soon and it's still possible he
breaks camp with the big club and is in the Opening Day lineup for the
Cardinals. In Taveras' last full season in 2012, he batted a robust
.321/.380/.572 as a 20 year-old in Double-A. This is a special talent.
Ike Davis (1B-NYM)
- It was reported on Monday that Davis "hid" an oblique injury from the
Mets last year, suggesting that the injury may have at least partially to
blame for Davis' hitting .205/.326/.334. He also hit .227 a year ago, but
that was with an ISO of .237, a mark that dropped to just .127 in 2013.
Davis fanned in 26.8% of his PA's last year and looks to be a shell of the
player that had us predicting great things after his rookie debut in 2010.
I've seen some analysts suggesting that he could be this year's Chris
Davis, but I just don't see it. I can see taking a flier here, but
suggesting a huge rebound is in store may be wishful thinking.
Jarrod Parker
(SP-OAK) - Parker appears to be on track to be the team's Opening Day
starter, and though Sonny Gray may very well be the team's best pitcher,
Parker could be in line for a strong 2014. Parker saw his ERA rise and
velocity dip last year, but recall that he was once one of baseball's very
top prospects. To me, Parker reminds me some of Homer Bailey, a top
prospect/draft pick that started his career slow before settling in and
getting a nine-figure contract. Yes we hear this all the time, but Parker
put on some muscle this offseason in the hopes that he can sustain himself
through a grueling six months. He's a bit of a sleeper.
Matt Harrison
(SP-TEX) - With back and shoulder injuries limiting Harrison to just
two starts a year ago, it's obviously a concern that Harrison has already
received an injection this spring in his neck to help alleviate back
stiffness. His MRI came back clean and he'll resume throwing on Thursday,
but can we really count on 200+ innings from a pitcher with a history of
back injuries? Hard to count on at all. Keep him on your radar though, as
Harrison posted a combined 3.33 ERA in 400 innings from 2011-2012.
Harrison is also still just 28, so if he can put these injuries behind
him, he could be a nice buy-low pick. He may not even be on some draft
lists given he compiled just 10.2 innings in 2013.
Nate Jones
(RP-CHW) - Jones is dealing with a glute strain, but he did throw at
80% effort on Sunday, so he should be just fine for Opening Day. Jones
appears to be the favorite to be the team's closer given the Addison Reed
trade. In 2013, Jones compiled just a 4.15 ERA, but that came with a solid
10.3 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9 that was down over 2012's 4.0 mark. He also
averaged a whopping 97.7 mph with his fastball, so as long as Jones can
command well and continue to show an above average slider, Jones could be
an elite and bargain closer in 2014.
