Chris Archer - Chris Archer faced the Mariners on Tuesday and gave up 5 ER on nine hits while striking out five over just five innings. Archer entered Tuesday's start with a sparkling 2.71 ERA, but he has been outpitching his peripherals for quite some time now. Archer owns just a 6.13 K/9, 17% K% and 7.9% swinging strike %, so he isn't missing many bats. He's also enjoying a .223 BABIP and 81% strand rate - both unsustainable numbers (although, because Archer has maintained a low 16% LD%, we'd expect his BABIP to be below league average). All told, with an xFIP that's almost two runs above his ERA, Archer is unlikely to sustain his current level of performance.
Alexi Ogando - Alexi Ogando gave up 4 ER on six hits and two walks over 6 1/3 innings against the Brewers on Tuesday. He struck out three. The 2013 version of Alexi Ogando has been much worse than the 2012 version. While his ERA is nearly identical (3.28 vs. 3.27), Ogando's xFIP has jumped from 3.58 to 4.97 prior to Tuesday's outing. His K% has fallen by 9% while his BB% has increased by almost 4%. Perhaps most alarming, Ogando's swinging strike % is down from 13.2% to just 8%. Clearly, his stuff isn't as effective despite the low ERA. I expect regression in the coming weeks unless Ogando can improve his peripherals.
Bruce Chen - Bruce Chen's been a popular "add" in deeper fantasy leagues thanks to his 5-0 record and 1.79 ERA in 65 innings this season, prior to Tuesday's start. While nobody thinks Chen can maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, the question is: by just how much will the lefty regress in the coming weeks? The answer is likely to be: quite a lot. Chen did toss seven innings and allowed 0 ER with six strikeouts against the Marlins on Tuesday. However, prior to yesterday's outing, he owned a 4.68 xFIP, .241 BABIP and 90% strand rate. The 4.68 xFIP is nearly identical to his career 4.69 mark, indicating that once you strip away the good fortunate, Chen is pitching about on par with his career norm.
Ryan Dempster - Ryan Dempster took on the Blue Jays on Tuesday and yielded 1 ER on four hits with four strikeouts. Dempster is struggling this season, posting the highest xFIP mark (4.22) since his 2007 season when he was with the Cubs. The problem has been that the right hander is walking more batters (10% BB% in 2013 vs. 7% in 2012), allowing significantly more HRs (14% HR/FB% in 2013 vs. 10% in 2012) and inducing fewer grounders. That's a bad combination, especially when you don't improve your strikeout rate. There are no clear signs that Dempster will turn around his season, so he remains a risky SP option for now.
Jason Vargas - The Angels' Jason Vargas rejoined the rotation on Tuesday after missing six weeks with a blot clot issue. He replaces Tommy Hanson, who was demoted to AAA. On Tuesday, Vargas allowed 4 ER on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings. He struck out three and walked one. Prior to the injury, the southpaw was enjoying a 3.65 ERA in 91 innings, although his xFIP was 4.43. Vargas is posting similar numbers as he did in 2012 when he tossed 217 innings with a 3.85 ERA and 4.45 xFIP. He's done a better job of limiting homers this season with an 8% HR/FB% compared to 13% in 2012. He's also recorded ERAs under 4.00 in two of the past three seasons. Vargas can serve as a cheap play in daily fantasy baseball and has some value in AL-only and deeper mixed formats.
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