Carlos Gomez - Carlos Gomez continued his breakout season by collecting three hits, driving in two, scoring two runs and stealing a base for Milwaukee against Miami on Monday. Gomez is providing his fantasy owners with an excellent combination of power and speed, batting .322/.363/.583 with a .261 ISO through 248 plate appearances. So, can Gomez keep this up? I am always leery of guys with low walk rates being able to maintain strong OBPs, and Gomez has just a 4% BB% this season. He's also benefiting from a .371 BABIP, despite a low 17% LD rate and 41% GB rate - both marks that are in line with his 2012 season. During that season, Gomez's BABIP was just .296, so he's been very fortunate in 2013 and I'm not sure he can keep up this high of a BABIP moving forward. Once that balls in play average falls, expect Gomez to see a significant dip in his BA and OBP. The power, on the other hand, does seem real to me. Gomez owned a .202 ISO and 14% HR/FB rate last season and, while his ISO is a bit higher right now, his HR/FB rate is 15%. A 20-HR, 25-steal season seems likely and that's a combination that's hard to find.
Giancarlo Stanton - The Marlins and baseball welcomed back Giancarlo Stanton after the Miami outfielder missed six weeks with a strained hamstring. Stanton went 1-for-4 against the Brewers on Monday. Prior to the injury, Stanton had struggled to the tune of a .227/.341/.387 slash line, hitting just 3 HRs in 20 games. He was showing better patience than in 2012 (13% BB% in 2013 vs. 9% in 2012), but was not driving the ball nearly as well (.160 ISO in 2013 vs. .318 in 2012). Along with a drop in power, Stanton wasn't squaring up on the ball as evidenced by his putrid 10% LD rate. It's reasonable to assume Stanton was pressing prior to the injury, so hopefully the time off has given him a chance to clear his mind and return to form. That said, there's no lineup protection for the outfielder so he's going to get walked a lot and have few RBI/run chances moving forward. Don't expect good counting stats from Stanton, but do expect a bunch of tape-measure homers during the season's final four months.
Scott Feldman - Scott Feldman gave up 5 ER over six innings against the Reds on Monday and now owns a 3.22 ERA and 1.17 WHIP for the season. Feldman's strong start (Monday aside) has been surprising, especially when you consider he posted a 5.09 ERA in 123 innings last year for the Rangers. However, looking deeper into the numbers we see that Feldman's xFIP was actually solid at 3.87 in 2012. He had been unlucky in that his strand rate was just 61% and his BABIP was .318. This season, Feldman's HR, strikeout and walk rates are all right in line with his 2012 campaign, except he's now enjoying a much higher strand rate (72%) and lower BABIP (.260). Part of the right hander's success can be attributed to lowering his LD rate from 25% in 2012 to just 17% in 2013. My guess is that Feldman's been able to improve that LD rate by increasing the number of grounders that he induces (51% GB% this season). He's not going to maintain an ERA in the low 3.00s forever, but Feldman can be a decent back end starter with a 3.75-4.00 ERA the rest of the way.
Homer Bailey - Homer Bailey picked up a win on Monday against the Cubs by giving up 0 ER over eight innings. He struck out eight and walked two. For the season, Bailey owns a sparkling 3.05 xFIP and has improved his strikeout % from 19% in 2012 to 24% this year. He has increased his swinging strike % from 9.4% to 10.5% and improved his GB/FB rate from 1.27 to 1.62 prior to yesterday's outing. One area where Bailey may experience some regression is with his HRs. His HR/FB rate is just 6% compared to 12% the past two seasons. That said, I'm liking what I see in Bailey's numbers (especially the improved whiff rates) and believe he should see his ERA continue to fall in the coming starts.
Yovani Gallardo - In his first of two starts this week, Yovani Gallardo allowed 0 ER with four strikeouts in eight innings against the Marlins on Monday. He now owns a 4.74 ERA and 3.59 xFIP in 81 2/3 innings this season. Entering this start, Gallardo's xFIP was 3.69 - right in line with his 3.55 mark in 2012. He has been dealing with a slightly higher BABIP this season (.309 vs. .290 in 2012) as well as a lower strand rate (68% vs. 78% in 2012). However, what's got Gallardo's fantasy owners most concerned is his declining strikeout rate. This season marks the fourth straight that Gallardo's strikeout % has dropped - and it's been quite a dip between 2012 and 2013 by falling from 23% to just 18%. He's also seen his swinging strike % dip from 9.0% in 2011 to 7.8% in 2012 to just 6.7% in 2013. All told, Gallardo's peripherals indicate he should be able to see improvement in his coming starts, but the lack of whiffs is concerning. He's a spot starter for now and should be benched against Cincinnati next weekend.
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