Jacob Turner - Turner pitched great in his 2013 debut against the Mets Friday night, shutting them out for seven innings on five hits and a walk, striking out three. Turner has been much more of a "scouts guy" than a "stats guy" during his three-year pro career, but the biggest thing that has jumped out at me is the disparity between his K rates and his swinging strike percentages. He was throwing harder Friday than he did at just about any point in 2012, but yet again he only fanned three batters despite getting 10 empty swings on just 81 pitches. His control has been much improved since spring training as well, and with a 12:5 GB:FB ratio Friday it certainly appeared that he put a lot of effort into working on the two things that they sent him down for. I don't think Turner is a future ace or anything like that, but I do think that there's more here than a busted prospect. He's got the Phils on the road and the Brewers at home in his next two starts, two bottom-10 offenses to potentially help him continue this hot start. I'd be inclined to start him in most formats.
Matt Cain - Cain had another disastrous outing yesterday in St. Louis, striking out 9 over 6 innings but also allowing 7 runs on 9 hits in an 8-0 loss. This year's performances thus far may seem a bit surprising for Cain, but if you take a look at his xFIP ERAs over the past five years, you probably won't be able to pick out 2013's. The truth is that Cain has posted abnormally low HR/FB rates for years, and for whatever reason, perhaps the continuing drop in velocity, that has not been the case thus far this year. He hasn't allowed a homer in three starts, so perhaps he is settling in now, but with an LD rate that has climbed for three straight years and velocity that has declined for four in a row, I'm just not that enthused about his prospects. He is likely to see his ERA decline steadily the rest of the way, but for me Cain has always been closer to a 4.00 ERA pitcher than a 3.00 one, so I'm not a buyer.
Jonathan Lucroy - Fresh off a huge 5-5 day Friday, Lucroy homered again yesterday to extend his hitting streak to 7 games in a 4-3 win over Philadelphia. I am an unabashed Lucroy fan, and with him turning 27 in less than two weeks I obviously expected more from his 2013 than what we've seen thus far. He has posted a contact rate above 90% for the first time in his career, he's hitting a homer every 27 ABs (basically close to a 20-HR pace for a C), and he's even swiped a couple of bases. The BABIP is 70-80 points below what you'd expect, and really, that's pretty much the extent of what's wrong with his season totals. Expect more AVG and similar power as we move through 2013, and yes, Lucroy is still a definite starter for me in all formats.
Danny Espinosa/Anthony Rendon - In a stretch beginning May 12th, Espinosa has gone 4-49 with 0 XBH, 1 BB, and 21 SO's while battling a chip fracture in his wrist and a torn rotator cuff. I think that the writing may be on the wall for Espinosa's 2013, as Anthony Rendon was moved to AAA with a set of instructions that amounted to "figure out how to play 2B ASAP". My best guess is that by the break Rendon will be the Nationals' 2B unless he is completely hopeless at the position, and that Espinosa will be encouraged to have surgery or at least rest for the better part of a month. I believe that Espinosa is safe to cut in all but the deepest of single-season formats, and everyone should be on the lookout for Rendon, who would be a worthy pickup across the board.
Mike Leake - Leake has allowed just 1 earned run over 27 innings in his last four outings after six shutout innings against the Pirates last night. Let's keep in mind that those four starts have come against the Pirates (T-22nd), Mets (24th), Marlins (30th), and Indians (4th but with no DH), so they should be taken with an entire salt shaker. The schedule gets at least moderately difficult for Leake for the remainder of June, and I for one would be shopping him around as best I could. I'll reiterate that I don't expect him to fall apart, but I do expect him to perform more like the back-end starter that I believe him to be.
