Rick Porcello, RHP DET Porcello came into Wednesday's start with a 1.33 ERA and a 30/4 K/BB in 27 innings over his last four starts and a 2.84 ERA and a 56/10 K/BB in 57 innings since allowing nine runs in the first inning on April 20. However, he ran into the Orioles' high-powered offense Wednesday and allowed nine hits and six runs in six innings. Porcello's FIP is 3.66, his K/9 is a career-high 7.46 and his BB/9 is a career-low 1.54, but his ERA is 4.74. He has stranded just 64.5 percent of his baserunners this season. I don't expect that to change - he has a career strand rate of 69.1 percent and hasn't stranded more than 69 percent of baserunners since his rookie year.
Nate McLouth, OF BAL McLouth went 6-for-35 (.171) over his last 10 games prior to Wednesday, but he walked eight times with just four strikeouts in those games. He went 3-for-5 with two doubles Wednesday to raise his average to .288 and also stole his 24th base of the season. McLouth's career strikeout rate is 16.8 percent, but he has fanned in just 10.8 percent of his plate appearances this year. McLouth's plate discipline and coverage has been fantastic this season. He has a career-low chase rate, and a career-high contact rate on pitches both in and out of the strike zone. His 95.7 percent contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is the ninth best in the majors.
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP TB Hellickson has not been able to go more than a few starts without a blowup this season. He gave up 10 hits and eight earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his last start before throwing a quality outing - six innings, seven hits, two runs - Wednesday against the Royals. He's 5-3 with a 5.50 ERA and a 4.03 FIP. The right-hander had a 3.02 ERA over the previous two seasons despite posting FIPs of 4.44 and 4.60 because he stranded more than 80 percent of his runners in both years. This season, he has stranded just 61.4 percent and that has offset his improvement in BB/9 from 3.00 last season to 1.87 this year. Batters have tagged him for a 25 percent line-drive rate and a 16.7 percent HR/FB with runners in scoring position this season.
Mark Buehrle, LHP TOR Buehrle only lasted five innings Wednesday against the Rockies, but it was enough to earn his second straight win and fourth of the season. Buehrle is 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA over his last six starts after going 1-3 with a 6.33 over his first nine. Still, the lefty is a mediocre fantasy option. He has a 6.07 K/9, and his BB/9 of 2.45 is his worst since his first year in the big leagues back in 2000. He also has allowed 1.27 HR/9, his highest since 2006. The left-hander also has the lowest first-pitch strike rate and worst overall strike percentage of his career.
Justin Morneau, 1B MIN Morneau's home run Wednesday night was his first since all the way back on April 28 and just his third of the season. Morneau has hit .289 with 40 RBIs this season, so he has some fantasy value, but he is a regression candidate due to his decline in power (3.8% HR/FB). Morneau has benefited from a .298 average on groundballs this season, but that's unlikely to last; he's a career .231 hitter on grounders. Morneau has gone 15-for-73 (.205) on flyballs this season and has a career-low .104 ISO.
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