Cole Hamels - For struggling pitchers, facing the Marlins is a pretty significant litmus test this season: if you can't shut down that lineup, what lineup can you shut down? On Monday, Cole Hamels entered his start against Miami with a 4.61 ERA and 1-6 record (for whatever that's worth) and proceeded to allow two ER on seven hits while whiffing 10 over six innings. Hamels now has a 3.97 xFIP and 4.45 ERA in 62 2/3 innings this season. He's seen his strikeout % drop from 24% last season to just 19% this year. He's also experienced an increase in his walk % as well as a spike in HRs allowed (14% in 2013 vs. 11% in 2012). While all of those numbers are a bit alarming, Hamels is also yielding a lower LD% this season than last and his velocity is right in line with past seasons. My guess is that the lefty is experiencing a tough stretch, nothing more, and he should emerge out of it sooner than later. I like Hamels as a buy-low candidate right now.
Yovani Gallardo - Yovani Gallardo took on the Dodgers on Monday and gave up three ER on eight hits to go along with seven strikeouts over six innings. Gallardo has struggled thus far in 2013 with a big drop in his strikeouts (15% in 2013 vs. 23% in 2012) as well as a spike in ERA (4.50 in 2013 vs. 3.66 in 2012). The right hander now has seen his SwStr% fall from 9.0% in 2011 to 7.8% in 2012 to 6.6% this season. Most alarming, his average fastball velocity has dipped from 91.8 mph to 90.5 mph. However, not all of Gallardo's stats look bad as he owns a respectable 3.83 xFIP. Keep an eye on Gallardo's velocity as well as his whiff rate in the coming starts to gauge if this is just a small sample size issue or something deeper.
Domonic Brown - The Phillies' Domonic Brown homered and stole a base on Monday against the Marlins. Brown is now batting .250/.293/.436 through 167 plate appearances this season. He also has a respectable .186 ISO. Brown's numbers this season are very similar to the numbers he posted in 56 games in 2012, except his walk % has fallen by about half from 10% to 5%. He's also managed to improve his LD rate by 3% and has an impressive 20% HR/FB rate (compared to a 10% mark in 2012). The LD rate makes me think Brown's been unlucky with such a low .263 BABIP, so he's worth monitoring during the coming weeks to see if he can experience positive regression. It would also be encouraging if Brown can improve his FB% as it sits at just 28% and therefore offsets his high HR/FB mark.
Matt Kemp - Matt Kemp went 1-for-3 with a HR and a walk on Monday against the Brewers and is now batting .267/.315/.358 with two HRs and 16 RBI for the season. Kemp's peripheral stats are as concerning as his counting stats to date. He owns a .091 ISO (not a typo) compared to .236 in 2012 and his .347 BABIP indicates he's been far from unlucky with his balls in play distribution. Kemp's actually improved his LD rate this season while striking out a bit more and walking a bit less. Perhaps the most amazing stat is Kemp's HR/FB rate, which has fallen from 21% in 2012 to 2% (heading into last night's game). That's right - he owns a 2% HR/FB rate through mid-May. At this point, I'm assuming Kemp improves based on his career marks, but he hasn't been especially unlucky to date - just a really poor hitter.
Johnny Cueto - After missing more than a month with a strained right lat, Johnny Cueto returned to the hill on Monday against New York. He tossed five innings and allowed three ER on three hits to go along with eight strikeouts and four walks. Prior to the injury, Cueto was very sharp in his first 17 innings of 2013, posting a 2.60 ERA, 2.83 xFIP and 26% K%. He also owned a solid 52% GB rate. While all those numbers are good, we're talking about a very small sample so I'm not ready to believe Cueto has suddenly discovered how to miss bats at an elite rate. He's historically been a solid SP with average whiff rates who has outperformed his peripherals the past couple seasons (2.31/2.78 ERAs vs. 3.90/3.65 xFIPs the past two seasons). Cueto should face the Cubs on Sunday in his next start.
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