Lance Lynn - Lance Lynn took on the Mets on Monday and allowed 3 ER on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts and 5 walks over 7 innings. Lynn continues to miss a lot of bats as he entered Monday's game with a 27% K%, which is in line with his career mark of 25%. The right hander is also enjoying an abnormally low HR/FB rate of 5.9% compared to an 11% career mark entering this season. That's not sustainable moving forward. Lynn's BABIP has also dropped from .321 in 2012 to just .246 this season. Part of that dip can be attributed to luck, but part of it is due to Lynn lowering his LD% from 24% to 18%. Batters aren't making solid contact, which naturally causes the balls in play average to fall. Lynn won't be able to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA forever, but he's got some strong peripheral stats that indicate he should be a solid SP in the long term in any league format.
Marco Estrada - After recording a 9.30 K/9 in 130 innings in 2012, Marco Estrada looked like a good sleeper option heading into 2013. However, the Brewers' right hander entered Monday's start against the Pirates with a 6.05 ERA in 7 starts. On Monday, Estrada tossed 7 innings and allowed 1 ER to go along with 5 strikeouts. While Estrada has definitely been a disappointment thus far in 2013, he does have a 3.90 xFIP and is dealing with a 2.17 HR/9 and 19 HR/FB%. Estrada has always struggled with the long ball, but his HR allowed rates shouldn't be as high as they are this season. He's continuing to miss bats (8.67 K/9, 23% K%) and he's walking fewer than 3 batters per game. I'm not sure it's a good idea to plug Estrada into your lineup in the short term, but there are reasons to believe he can still be a decent back end starter by season's end.
Matt Carpenter - One of my preseason sleepers, Matt Carpenter continued his solid start to 2013 by going 2-for-4 with 1 walk, 2 runs and 2 RBI against the Mets on Monday. Carpenter now owns a .294/.373/.449 slash line to go along with a solid 10% BB% (compared to a 14% K%) and 29 runs scored. On top of those great numbers, Carpenter is eligible at multiple positions, including second and third base in most leagues. In terms of sustainability, Carpenter is posting an almost identical line to his 2012 performance. His BABIP is high (.333), but that's mostly because he hits a ton of liners (26% LD%). The only real knock on Carpenter is that, because he hits at or near the top of the Cardinals' lineup, he's not going to bat in many runs. But he may score 100+ runs, which should make up for the lack of RBI. Carpenter remains a very steady infielder option in all league formats.
Travis Wood - Travis Wood faced the Rockies on Monday and gave up 0 ER on just 2 hits with 2 strikeouts over 7 innings. Wood's been a nice surprise this season for the Cubs and fantasy teams as he entered yesterday's start with a 2.33 ERA and left it with a 2.03 mark. However, he's been extremely fortunate with a 6.1% HR/FB rate (compared to 13% in 2012), .186 BABIP and 83% strand rate. In reality, Wood, with his current 4.46 xFIP, is pitching only marginally better than he did in 2012 when he posted a 4.62 xFIP and 4.27 ERA. Moving forward, I can't see many reasons to believe Wood will remain fantasy-relevant despite his current ERA. He's definitely a sell-high candidate.
Mike Minor - Mike Minor picked up a win on Monday versus the Diamondbacks after giving up 1 ER on 8 hits with 4 strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings. Minor has done a better job missing bats this season, entering yesterday's outing with a 10.1% SwStr% (compared to 7.8% in 2012), while also improving his chase rate from 26% to 32%. Additionally, batters are making less contact on pitches outside the strike zone (70% in 2012 to 61% in 2013) and the lefty's K% is up from 19% to 22% in 2013. That said, Minor is also enjoying a .239 BABIP and 85% strand rate, which is partly why his FIP is 3.99 (compared to a 2.75 ERA). Minor's a decent mid-rotation starter in deeper leagues, somewhere between the guy who owned a 4.72 xFIP in the first half of 2012 and the guy who owned a 3.89 xFIP in the second half of 2012.
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