Matt Moore, LHP TB Moore is still cruising along with a 2.29 ERA and an 8-0 record, but he's due for a regression. The left-hander has a .197 BABIP overall, a .161 BABIP with men on base and a .035 BABIP with runners in scoring position. Meanwhile, his line-drive rate is 18 percent with men on, which is strong but hardly worthy of a .161 BABIP. He has stranded 91.8 percent of his baserunners, which has allowed him to pitch around a 4.25 BB/9. Meanwhile, his average fastball velocity is down from 94.1 mph to 92.4 mph and his swing-and-miss rate is down from 11.8 percent to 8.4 percent from 2012.
Derek Holland, LHP TEX Holland has a 3.30 ERA and a 2.81 FIP in 60 innings this year after putting up a 4.67 ERA and a 4.75 FIP in 175.1 innings last season. So what has he done differently? Mostly, he has kept the ball in the park. He allowed 32 homers in 2012, but has given up just four this year. His flyball rate has shrunk from 40.1 percent to 32.9 percent and his HR/FB is down from 15.2 percent to 7.0 percent from last year. Holland has raised his chase rate from 27.7 percent to 33 percent and his swing-and-miss percentage from 8.1 percent to 10.3 percent.
Coco Crisp, OF OAK Crisp went 0-for-2 Friday, but he walked three times and now has 22 walks and just 11 strikeouts in 148 plate appearances. Only once in his career has he posted more walks than strikeouts, and that came back in 2009 when he had just 215 plate appearances. However, Crisp's BABIP is down to .259, and for good reason: his line-drive rate is a career-low 14.3 percent, and he has a career-high 42.9 percent but he is just 3-for-42 (.071) on flies that stayed in the ballpark.
Scott Kazmir, LHP CLE Kazmir has a 6.35 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in 28.1 innings this season, but he also has been extremely unlucky. His line-drive rate of 20.7 percent is average, but he has a .363 BABIP. Kazmir has put up a 9.53 K/9 and a 3.18 BB/9. He's not without fault, however. The lefty has served up seven homers and has a 19.4 percent HR/FB. He'll need to curtail the home runs before fantasy owners can trust him.
Chris Tillman, RHP BAL Tillman's ERA outperformed his FIP by 1.32 last season due in large part to a .221 BABIP. He has put up a similar disparity this year with a 4.75 FIP and a 3.68 ERA. However, his FIP is skewed by a 1.53 HR/9. Tillman has allowed 10 homers this season, but eight of them were solo shots and the other two were two-run blasts. In fact, Tillman hasn't given up a three-run homer since 2011, so the high homer total isn't really a major concern. What is a concern is his 87.3 percent contact rate, up from 81.8 percent last year.
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