Kevin Gausman (SP-BAL): Kevin Gausman produced mix-results in his major league debut last night against the Blue Jays. The highly touted prospect allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings, adding in 5 strikeouts. The big blow came via J.P. Arencibia's 11th homer of the season with 2 outs in the 5th inning. Drew Dinkmeyer nicely summarized (via Twitter) where Gausman is in his development: elite velocity, a plus changeup, and an inconsistent slider as his 3rd offering. Gausman was understandably quite amped up and left many of his fastballs up in the zone, but with his makeup I see him adapting quickly. For 2013, I'd rank Gausman a tier below Jose Fernandez. Gausman is going to have to contend with tougher lineups and I envision more volatility from him. I do think he can maintain his 25% K-rate from the minors and see him as a solid speculative add in 12-team mixed leagues or deeper.
Ernesto Frieri (RP-LAA): Ernesto Frieri picked up the dubious "hold" after failing to finish off the 9th. The Angels' closer allowed 2 earned runs on 3 hits and a walk before yielding to Robert Coello, who made quick work of Alcides Escobar to pick up the 1st save of his career. While Frieri still sports a stellar 32% K-rate, and while he's officially blown only 1 save, there is cause for concern. His walk rate is now at an abysmal 17%. Batters are chasing 9% fewer pitches out of the zone (as per Brooks), and his ground ball rate has plummeted by 8.4%. He has been relying almost exclusively on his fastball as of late and appears to be struggling with his secondary stuff. True, Ryan Madson experienced another setback and posses no immediate threat. And true, Ernesto Frieri should get the next save chance. However, I would downgrade his job security a notch and handcuff with Coello, who has struck out 34% of the batters he has faced in the majors. Garrett Richards is also a name to keep in mind should Frieri continue to struggle.
Daniel Nava (OF-BOS): Daniel Nava continued to impress on Thursday, going 2 for 2 with 2 walks and a run scored. This pushed his season line to a solid .299/.400/.493 with 6 homers, 29 RBI, and 24 runs scored with a sterling 20:28 BB:K ratio through 41 games. While the switch-hitter displayed above average plate discipline and contact skills in the minors, he hasn't played in more than 88 games in a season yet in the majors and until this year his performance was quite inconsistent. I really like what I'm seeing from him in 2013, as he's recaptured the plate discipline and is making consistently harder contact (9.9% fewer ground balls and 3.3% more line drives). And he's shown an improved approach against lefties (.742 OPS in 2013 vs. .613 in 2012) giving the Red Sox more reason to keep his bat in the lineup. With him moving up in the order, this will only help his counting stats.
Mark Trumbo (1B/OF-LAA): Mark Trumbo hit his 11th homer of the year as part of a 2 for 4, 2 RBI effort against the Royals. Trumbo's season line now sits at .284/.349/.532 with 11 homers, 31 RBI, and 26 runs through 47 games. I have to give credit where credit is due: Mark Trumbo has elevated his game. He has increased his BB-rate by 3% while maintaining virtually the same K-rate. He has cut his chase rate by roughly 2.5 % (according to Brooks). And while his BABIP is a bit high at .341, his line drive rate is up 4% from last year. With the middle of the Angels' lineup starting to show signs of life around him, I wouldn't sell high.
Josh Willingham (OF-MIN): Josh Willingham logged a 2 for 5, 2 RBI, 2 run night in a losing effort against the Tigers. The Hammer mashed 2 homers to give him 8 on the season and pushed his season line to .212/.368/.453 with 23 RBI and 20 runs scored through 40 games. Fantasy owners in need of power may want to target him, although there is a catch: he is becoming a batting average liability. While not quite there yet, Willingham is approaching Adam Dunn territory as he has dramatically increased his K and BB rates (they sit at 27% and 16% respectively). Besides the strikeouts being on the inflated side, his line drive rate plummeting to 12.6% is also not helping the batting average. I envision his numbers approaching last year's across the board with the exception of batting average, where I see him settling around the .230-240 range. If you can make up for the average elsewhere, he could help you rapidly ascend in the home run category.
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