Just a small sampling of today's notes...
David Freese (3B-STL) - Freese has been activated from the disabled list, so Matt Carpenter will man second base and push Daniel Descalso to a utility role where he belongs. Freese's playoff exploits are well-documented, and he took a big step forward last year in his first full season of MLB at-bats. His walk rate increased from 6.6% to 10.1% and he showed a 30-point increase in his ISO to .174. Freese does hit the ball on the ground too much (52% GB% last year), and his 20% HR/FB rate is unlikely to be sustainable going forward. That would seem to make him a risk for a drop in HR production from last year's 20. Freese had 10 homers headed into June last year, but finished with the 20, so expect around 15 and hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Jim Henderson (RP-MIL) - Reports continue to circulate that John Axford will be removed as the Brewers' closer, likely joining Carlos Marmol as the first two closers to lose their jobs this year. Let's take a look at his assumed replacement. Henderson runs his fastball up to the plate in the mid-90s and sports a second plus pitch, a slider. So he has the stuff to close certainly, particularly given last year's 13.2 K/9 for the Brewers. This could be sample size-related due the small number of innings Henderson recorded in the big leagues last year, 30 2/3, but a whopping 50% of his batted balls were in the air. Perhaps luckily, zero of those balls went over the wall, allowing Henderson to overcome a so-so 3.8 BB/9. Watch the walks and fly balls and hope that those rates come down, or Axford seems likely to get another chance at some point this year.
Andrelton Simmons (SS-ATL) - Simmons is back after missing a couple games with a thumb injury, but it was pretty surprising to see that he was slotted in the eight-hole Monday, with B.J. Upton leading off. Upton entered Monday's action hitting just .150/.292/.300 after an 0-for-14 start, but he was 3-for-6 with a couple walks on Saturday/Sunday, so perhaps he'll get a shot at the leadoff spot. Upton has stolen three bases, so Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez may just like that sort of speed at the top of his lineup. Simmons is off to a slow start, batting just .176/.222/.235, so that may have cost him a shot at a ton of fantasy value as the team's leadoff man. We're not sure this is permanent just yet, but Simmons' value has taken a slight hit here.
Marco Estrada (SP-MIL) - Estrada recovered from a poor first start to hold the Cubs to two runs over seven solid innings Monday to pick up his first win of the season. Estrada wound up on several of my teams this year after he went out and posted a 3.64 ERA with a 9.3 K/9 a year ago. Even in allowing four runs in five innings to the Rockies in start #1 this year, Estrada still fanned eight and did not walk a batter. Like last year, the HR ball hurt him, but Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez hit home runs off a lot of guys. He allowed another HR Monday, but his control should allow him to mitigate the damage from a HR/9 rate that will probably be in the 1.2 range again this year.
Martin Maldonado (C-MIL) - Usually the backup to catcher Jonathan Lucroy, Maldonado got the start at first base on Monday and took advantage, going 3-for-5 including a bases-clearing double off Edwin Jackson. Maldonado hit a respectable .266/.321/.408 while filling in for Lucroy last year and he's a couple years removed from a .321/.410/.537 showing in 160 Triple-A ab's. I wouldn't expect that obviously, but he does have some power, and if he can hit .270 and play 3-4 times a week, that's plenty for #2 NL-only catcher status.
