Ike Davis (1B - NYM): Davis' start to the season hasn't been particularly pretty. He took another 0-4 on Thursday with 2 more K's and is now 1-13 with 6 K's on the young season. Fortunately for fantasy owners the "1" was a 2-run HR. The problem early in the season doesn't appear to be one of plate discipline as his chase rate is in-line with his career rates, but instead of contact. Entering play yesterday he had posted a 13.2 swinging strike % which is 2 percentage points above the career high 11.2% he posted last year. All of the small sample caveats apply here and we shouldn't be making rash judgments off of three game samples, but the contact rate is the one thing holding Ike back from a monstrous breakout. He already has good command of the strike zone and when he connects he's shown a ton of raw power (.210 ISO), but he just doesn't connect enough to be a true superstar. If you're banking on a big breakout season from Ike, I think honing in on his contact rate through the first 150 PA's or so will likely be your guide. Improved contact rate and the breakout comes, continue to swing through too many pitches and the poor-man's Adam Dunn impression continues.
James McDonald (SP - PIT): McDonald's season last year was about as drastic a tale of two halves as any pitcher in baseball. In the first half of the season McDonald posted a 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and 2.53 BB/9. However, in the 2nd half of the season he posted a 7.52 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, and 5.6 BB/9. McDonald hadn't really shown any large disparity between 1st and 2nd half splits in his career leading up to last year, so the volatile performance profile made many question which is the real McDonald? The truth, as usual, probably lies somewhere in between. On Thursday McDonald was more of the 1st half version from last year as he allowed just 1 ER over 7 strong innings against the Cubs. He allowed just 2 hits and 2 BB's while striking out 4 and yielding just a 5.3% LD Rate. McDonald generated his usual sub-par GB Rate (38%) but was able to get by as he kept all of the fly balls (58%) in the park. He worked 89-92 which is slightly below his average fastball velocity from last year, but modestly decreased velocity in April is pretty normal. Perhaps most importantly he pounded the zone throwing 60 of his 97 pitches for strikes. Last year when things really went wrong for McDonald walks were a huge part of the problem. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, the walks will turn what could've been solo HR's into 2-run and 3-run HR's in a hurry. Another factor, perhaps, in McDonald's 2nd half struggles were 9 of his 13 starts came on the road. His extreme fly-ball tendencies benefit from spacious PNC Park so it's no surprise that the HR Rate spiked on the road as well. When utilizing McDonald, a volatile asset, in the future it's probably best to pick home starts against impatient lineups. Yesterday's matchup with the Cubs was an ideal one for J-Mac, who if used appropriately could deliver Top 40 SP production.
Jayson Werth (OF - WAS): Werth got his season going on Thursday with a 2-4 effort that included his first home run of the season along with his first 2 runs and 3 RBI's. Hitting in front of Bryce Harper, Werth's career 12.1 BB% should put him in position to score plenty of runs and his strong zone control (career 21.7% chase rate) and improved contact rates (82.5%) from a year ago should help him be above average in the batting average category as well. The big question mark surrounding Werth will be whether the power ever comes back. Last year Werth hit just 5 HR's after returning from a wrist injury and his .140 ISO was well below his career .194 mark. However, it wasn't THAT far behind his .157 mark in 2011 when Werth hit 20 HR's for the Nationals despite a paltry .389 slugging %. A 5.3% HR/FB Rate from Werth last year (career average of 14.4%) is responsible for a big part of the power outage and with Werth nearly a year removed from the injury I think we'll see a decent bit of that power return this season. Before the season started I was asked about Werth on twitter and I suggested a .275-90-17-80-15 line was my projection, making him a very under-valued draft day commodity. I might be a bit high on the RBI's as 80 would be difficult out of the two hole, but I do think he has the chance to challenge all the other numbers in a strong Nationals lineup.
Kris Medlen (SP - ATL): From the get go on Thursday night Kris Medlen just didn't look like himself. He loaded the bases in the first two innings and allowed two runs. He finished having allowed just those 2 ER's over his 5 innings of work but it came with 6 hits and 4 walks allowed, while striking out just 3. Last year when Medlen had his breakout season he walked just 4.4% of batters and induced a tremendous 53.4% GB Rate. On Thursday night, he walked 16% of the batters faced and generated just a 44.4% GB Rate. Medlen wasn't particularly sharp during spring when he posted a 7.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, but the 17:3 K:BB Ratio in spring did provide reason for optimism. Medlen's velocity was down slightly last night, averaged 89.2 MPH (last year 90.0 MPH), but that's not an unusual difference, especially for April. We expected Medlen's performance to regress from last year, but still considered him a Top 20 SP who gets his value from the strong ratios much like a Johnny Cueto. Just one start won't make us hop off the bandwagon, but it would be nice to see some improved command the next time out for Medlen.
Travis Wood (SP - CHC): Travis Wood tossed 6 scoreless innings against the Pirates on Thursday and it was enough (barely) to earn him his first win of the season. Wood allowed just 1 hit, walked 2, and struck out 4 in the effort. He was pretty fortunate on balls in play, allowing a 21% LD Rate but receiving just a .061 BABIP. The 20% K% and 10% BB% are a little elevated above Wood's career levels, but a strong 12.9% swinging strike rate for the outing, suggests the K Rate could've even been stronger. The outing was especially impressive for Wood given the Pirates rolled out an 8 RHB lineup. In Wood's career he's struggled with righties to the tune of a 4.35 FIP and 4.55 xFIP, compared to a 3.65 FIP and 3.97 xFIP vs. LHB's. Wood will be tested in his next two starts as he gets the Brewers (1st in wOBA vs. LHP last year) and the Giants (13th in wOBA vs. LHP last year) in his two-start week next week. When right Wood has the chance to be a spot-starter in deeper formats, best-used in larger ballparks where his career 45.5% Fly Ball Rate won't do as much damage.
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