Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. In the space below I will break down the best and worst plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). As a result these recommendations often focus on value. By reading the notes below you'll be able to identify not only value options but potential weak pitchers to exploit. If a player is not touched on, it doesn't mean they're not a good play. We have limited space and assessing value across all the sites is a bit subjective. Please feel free to e-mail me at ddinkmeyer@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather:
Potential Issues: BOS-OAK, KC-DET, CLE-CHW (all rain related, 50+% chance, DET and BOS look particularly challenging).
Catchers:
Best Values:
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) - Look I'm getting as tired of writing about Lucroy as you are reading about him but as long as he's priced as an average catching option against ordinary LHP's he's going to be on this list. Lucroy is a career .329/.361/.558 hitter against LHP and Clayton Richard has allowed a .338 wOBA to RHB's over the last three years. Richard does have the benefit of pitching in spacious PETCO Park but his history against RHB's is a sketchy one in a matchup he's likely to face 7 or 8 RHB's. Lucroy should be the beneficiary of some prime RBI opportunities.
Buster Posey (SF) - Until Posey's price adjusts on a lot of sites we're going to keep listing Posey as an obvious value play, especially against LHP. Posey has a career .351/.405/.652 line against LHP and the opponent Patrick Corbin has surrendered a 22% LD Rate and 1.26 HR/9 to RHB's. Posey is an uber-star against LHP and any site that is pricing him as anything less means he's a terrific value.
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - For those playing the early slate Doumit is a solid option against Ricky Nolasco who has allowed a .348 wOBA, 22% LD Rate, and 1.08 HR/9 against LHB's over the last three years. Doumit has historically hit better against RHP than LHP (.795 OPS vs. .715 OPS) and Nolasco's issues with line drives and power should play nicely into Doumit's skill-set which is built on power as opposed to patience.
Wellington Castillo (CHC) - It's unusual you can find a guy almost hitting .400 that is priced as a below average catching option but that's what you have in "Beef" Wellington Castillo. In 72 PA's against LHP in his career Castillo has hit .385/.444/.538 with a gaudy 28.6% LD Rate. Castillo also happens to be a dead-red fastball hitter, posting 10.1 runs above average against the Fastball in his career and basically flat or below average runs against all other pitch types. On Tuesday night he'll face the Reds big prospect Tony Cingrani who threw 82% fastballs in his debut. Cingrani was impressive in his debut striking out 36% of the RHB's he faced, but he also walked 12% and surrendered a 50% FB Rate. Given Castillo's strong splits against LHP and the favorable hitting environment in Great American Ballpark can quickly turn FB's into HR's. Castillo also has the benefit of likely being a low ownership player against the hype machine Cingrani has going and could be an especially nice value play in big tournament fields because of it.
First Base:
Best Values:
Kendrys Morales (SEA) - Morales faces Bud Norris on Tuesday and Norris looks like the type of matchup Morales should handle well. Norris has surrendered a 22% LD Rate, 1.30 HR/9, and .352 wOBA to LHB's in the last three years, while Morales has hit .289/.345/.508 in his career against RHP. Norris is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher and Morales posts above average run values against both pitches while doing a ton of damage against fastballs in particular (+37.8 runs in his career).
Allen Craig (STL) - Craig showed some signs of life on Monday night with a 2-hit effort that included a 2-run double. On Tuesday he'll face off with LHP Ross Detwiler. Craig has hit .315/.350/.580 against LHP in his career for a monstrous .397 wOBA. Detwiler isn't particularly weak against RHB's (.319 wOBA) but Craig's salary is so depressed on sites and is so skilled against lefties that he's a very strong value play on Tuesday.
Brandon Moss (OAK) - For those playing on sites that are including the 6:35 game in Boston, Moss makes for an interesting play. Mike has talked a lot about Moss' elite splits the last two years against RHP (.858 OPS this year, 1.006 OPS last year) and on Tuesday night he'll get Alfredo Aceves who has allowed a 21% LD Rate and 1.09 HR/9 to RHB's over the last three years. Fenway Park is also a notorious hitters' park especially for left-handed bats which should increase the attractiveness of the matchup for Moss. On most sites he's priced somewhat similarly to the two above, who I prefer over him, but there's room for another value play on our list.
If you're paying up:
Joey Votto (CIN) - Votto gets to face Carlos Villanueva who has given up 1.54 HR/9 to LHB's over the last three years, while also surrendering a 22% LD Rate. Joey Votto is a line drive machine, especially against RHP (career 25%) and his career .323/.429/.575 line against RHP makes him one of the best in all of baseball against righties. Votto has started to get his power stroke going of late and Villanueva is a nice matchup for it to continue on Tuesday.
Second Base:
Best Values:
Dustin Ackley (SEA) - Ackley has been delivering for us the last few days and we're going to keep going to the well against mediocre RHP. I noted Bud Norris struggles with power and line drives against LHB's and the entire Astros staff has been beaten down of late. Ackley isn't a particularly great hitter against RHP but he does possess a 20% LD Rate against them. He's picked up hits in 5 of his last 6 games and is 8-22 over that span. For the bare minimum on many sites, Ackley's a solid salary relief option.
Ryan Raburn (CLE) - Raburn's posted a career .801 OPS against LHP and an impressive .347 wOBA. His opponent on the mound on Sunday, Jose Quintana, has allowed a .328 wOBA and a 22% LD Rate to RHB's over the last three years. Raburn is priced near the bare minimum on most sites and gets to face a LHP in US Cellular Field; a park that inflated HR's by 37% and runs by 13% over the last three years. Raburn is a bit more of a high risk/high reward play than Ackley but is another nice value at the bottom of the salary landscape at 2B.
Rickie Weeks (MIL) - It seems every time I get to write the Brewers are facing a LHP, making Lucroy and Weeks near-automatics for my list. Weeks has a career .374 wOBA against LHP thanks to a .266/.396/.446 line. Clayton Richard struggles to miss bats against righties (13.8% K%) limiting some of Weeks' downside and his .338 wOBA allowed to RHB's over the last three years is bottom five in the SP's going on Tuesday. Weeks has one of the more favorable splits advantages on Tuesday and on most sites he's priced as a below average or average 2B option.
Dan Uggla is also an interesting high risk/high reward play against Jon Garland in Coors Field. Uggla has traditionally hit RHP better than LHP and Jon Garland's low K Rates help limit some of the downside for Uggla. Coors Field always has amongst the highest total on the board so getting cheap players from the matchup is never a bad idea.
If you're going to spend:
Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Kinsler has been a monster in his career against LHP. He's hit .307/.383/.531 with a 1.07 EYE (BB:K Ratio) and a .393 wOBA. Jason Vargas' .317 wOBA allowed to RHB's is just average but the 1.17 HR/9 allows us to classify him as homer prone against righties. In addition with the two being in the same division the last few years Kinsler has built up a nice sample against Vargas. He's hit .343/.395/.571 in 35 AB's against Vargas while striking out just once in those 35 AB's (walking 3 times). Kinsler's priced like the most expensive 2B on many sites and for good reason on Tuesday. I think he's the top play at the position.
I also think Chase Utley is a strong play against Jeff Locke. Utley hits LHP pretty well and Locke has evenly awful splits against LHB and RHB. As the lone Phillie who hits from the left side and handles LHP well, he's a decent "expensive" option if he's priced well below Ian Kinsler.
Shortstop:
Best Values:
Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - Rollins gets to face one of the worst starting pitchers going on Tuesday's slate in Jeff Locke. Locke has posted a 5.73 FIP in his career and this year he's walked more batters than he's struck out. Against RHB's Locke has yielded a .364 wOBA and almost 2 HR/9. The Phillies are largely left-handed which might be a good thing for Locke except he's allowed a .385 wOBA to LHB's. This should allow the Phillies to turn the lineup over quite a bit and given Rollins has neutral splits vs. LHP and RHP as a switch hitter he should be on-base a bunch. Priced at an average rate on most sites, Rollins is a top 5 play at the position on Tuesday.
Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) - Cabrera's price remains depressed from the slow start and while it's largely been a value trap this season Cabrera did have a game-winning 2 RBI single last night which perhaps could get him going. I've noted I always prefer to use Cabrera against LHP because the switch hitter has been more comfortable in his career from his natural side. He's posted a career .293/.347/.432 line against LHP and Jose Quintana is below average against RHB's with a .328 wOBA. If prices are similar I think Rollins is a safer option because of how much Cabrera has struggled early in the year but in most sites I've checked it appears Cabrera's slow start has him priced well below, making him a comparable overall value.
The Stud:
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) - Same deal as always... if you can afford Tulo he's never a bad play at home. Julio Teheran is pretty tough on RHB's (.267 wOBA) but he has given up 1.27 HR/9 to RHB's in his career. Tulowitzki is the clear-cut best SS option and whether to use him or not simply comes down to whether you can afford him.
Third Base:
Best Values:
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - Beltre's price varies across sites but there are a few he's being priced as an average 3B option. In his career Beltre has hit .292/.356/.506 against LHP and his opponent on Tuesday night Jason Vargas has given up 1.17 HR/9 to RHB's over the last three years. Vargas has been an average pitcher against righties (.317 wOBA) but his high fly-ball tendencies (46% FB Rate) make him susceptible to the long-ball. Beltre's also a candidate to be low-owned because of players' tendency to over-rate pitcher-vs.-batter data. In his career Beltre is just 2-21 off Vargas but he's walked 3 times and struck out just once, suggesting the way he sees Vargas isn't necessarily the problem. For the season Beltre's slow start (.239/.299/.423) is accompanied by a 1.00 EYE, 18% LD Rate, and .183 ISO. To provide some context his career averages in those three metrics are 0.45 EYE, 19.2% LD Rate, and .196 ISO. A .226 BABIP is at the root of Beltre's slow start more than anything else. Take advantage of it on sites that are discounting his pricing in a significant way.
Juan Francisco (ATL) - I was a bit surprised at Francisco's price as I was surveying the sites this morning. Despite a really hot start (.292/.320/.479) he's still priced well below average on most sites. Francisco gets a trip to Coors Field and in the night-cap he'll get to face Jon Garland who has allowed a .331 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years. The 20% LD Rate allowed by Garland is accompanied by a 1.01 HR/9 mark and a poor 15% K%. Given Francisco's biggest problems with the bat relate to contact (career 70.1% contact rate), facing a soft-tossing "pitch-to-contact" pitcher should allow Francisco to put the ball in play. Historically when Francisco has put the ball in play, good things have happened. He has a tremendous career 22.8% LD Rate and his .183 ISO is considered above average. For his career Francisco has been above average against RHP, hitting .278/.324/.494 with a stellar .216 ISO and 22% LD Rate. He also has a great track record against pitchers classified as "finesse" pitchers. For his career Francisco has hit .341/.359/.652 against "finesse" pitching as classified by Baseball-Reference. Jon Garland is the epitome of a finesse pitcher. With a lefty on the hill in the 1st game I firmly expect Francisco to be in the lineup and with Jason Heyward's absence it's likely he'll move closer to the middle of that lineup. In a high scoring environment with a great history against RHP and finesse pitchers, Francisco is one of the best values at 3B on Tuesday.
Kyle Seager (SEA) - Seager is red-hot right now as he's compiled an 11 game hitting streak in which he's hit .381/.422/.690 during it. On Tuesday he gets a crack at Bud Norris who has allowed a .352 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years. In Seager's brief major league career he's been far better against RHP (.275/.331/.451, .339 wOBA) and of late he's provided a lot of power against RHP (.321/.379/.566 this year). Seager's price is still being weighed down on many sites because of the slow start, but he's really picked it up of late. He's a nice value play as well.
Other potential values: Michael Young (PHI), David Freese (STL)
Outfield:
Best Values:
Reed Johnson (ATL) - For those playing early slates that include the day game I think Reed Johnson is one of the best values of the day. Jason Heyward's appendectomy will assure Johnson's spot in the lineup and over his career he's posted a .360 wOBA against LHP. Jeff Francis who is scheduled to pitch in game 1 for the Rockies has allowed a .358 wOBA to RHB's over the last three years. In the hitters' haven that is Coors Field, Johnson makes for a tremendous value against LHP, especially if the Braves hit him up in the order (ideally 2nd). Even in the late game if he's starting he's priced so cheaply that I'd consider him on sites where pricing is generally tough.
Matt Joyce (TB) - Joyce against a RHP is another staple of the Fix and on Tuesday night he'll get face Phil Hughes. Hughes has some odd reverse splits which we've noted in the past (.350 wOBA vs. RHB, .318 wOBA vs. LHB) which typically might discourage us from employing Joyce, but I'm encouraged by Joyce's strong track record against Hughes in a limited sample. Joyce has gone 5-11 with 4 XBH's, 3 BB's, and 0 K's against Hughes for a monstrous .455/.571/1.273 line. Given Joyce's strong history against RHP (.362 wOBA) and the intriguing individual data against Hughes, I'm inclined to dive in on the under-priced LHB.
John Mayberry Jr. (PHI) - A rare appearance for the Mayberry man but I anticipate him getting a start tonight against LHP Jeff Locke. Locke has really struggled in his major league career (5.73 FIP) and his struggles against RHB's and LHB's have been largely even. John Mayberry Jr. has destroyed LHP in his career (.284/.330/.544) and the numbers are even more impressive at home (.321/.365/.583). Given Mayberry's track record against LHP and the strong environment at Citizens Bank Park, Mayberry is a nice value option tonight.
Jay Bruce (CIN) - Value plays don't have to be "cheap" and Jay Bruce is the perfect example of that tonight. Bruce is priced down on a number of sites because of a slower start to his season in terms of power. He finally connected for his first HR of the year but is still just posting a .282/.351/.400 line that is about 80 points below his career slugging percentage. A look at Bruce's batted ball data shows he's converted some of the typically heavy FB distribution (43.2% career, 26.3% this year) into line drives (31.6% this year, 18.8% career). It's one of those small sample size issues but it shows that Bruce is still squaring up pitches well even if they're not coming with his usual loft. On Tuesday night he gets a matchup against Carlos Villanueva who has allowed 1.54 HR/9 to LHB's over the last three years. Historically Bruce's power has come in bunches. For example last year he hit 34 HR's and on 3 different occasions (April 26-29, August 12-17, and September 2nd -8th) he had streaks of homering 4 times in 5 games with the September streak being 5 times in 6 games. As a result 38% of his HR's came in just 9% of his games. With Bruce homering last night perhaps the power streak is about to take off again. If so there couldn't be a more ideal matchup than a RHP who has problems with HR's allowed.
Matt Kemp (LAD) - There are some sites where Kemp is actually priced below Bruce and Mayberry tonight which again speaks to value not always having to be a cheap player. For his career Kemp has hit .344/.406/.576 against LHP (.415 wOBA) and even amidst struggles this year overall he's still hit .333/.345/.481 against lefties. Sure it's not the vintage Matt Kemp we're accustomed to but against LHP he's still an above average performer and on some sites his price is noticeably down. Jonathan Niese has allowed an average .320 wOBA against RHB's in part because he does a good job at limiting the long-ball (0.93 HR/9) but his 20% LD Rate and nearly 8% BB Rate suggests the right-handed bats do get a good look at him. I wouldn't pay an expensive price for Kemp tonight as there are better other expensive options but if his price is severely depressed he's still a fine play against LHP.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) - Stanton has destroyed Mike Pelfrey in his career going 8-17 with 1 2B, 2 HR's, 3 BB's and just 1 K. Pelfrey allows a .327 wOBA to RHB's which isn't terrible but he works down in the zone and Stanton is an unusual right-handed hitter in that he likes the ball down. Stanton's slow start to the season has caused his price to tumble dramatically and as a result he's a nice value play in a favorable matchup.
Other Potential Value Plays: Nelson Cruz (TEX), Melky Cabrera (TOR), Chris Heisey (CIN), Andy Dirks (DET), Eric Young Jr. (COL)
Expensive Star OF's to Target: Ryan Braun (MIL), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Dexter Fowler (COL), Justin Upton (ATL), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
Starting Pitchers:
Best Value Plays:
Alexi Ogando (TEX) - I'm not sure I understand why Ogando's price fell so dramatically after one bad outing against the Cubs. Perhaps the sites having a pricing model that multiplies the negatives if the games come against really crappy offenses like the Cubs? On the season Ogando has posted a 3.38 xFIP and 3.49 FIP that support the current 3.32 ERA. He's been death on RHB's in his career as he's yielded just a .196/.267/.301 line against them and the Angels top 2 bats are both RH (Trout, Pujols). The only left-handed threat the Angels have is Josh Hamilton which gives Ogando a lot of opportunity to pitch around a RH-heavy lineup. On sites where you're asked to play multiple SP's Ogando's price is extremely friendly.
Matt Cain (SF) - Cain has had a difficult start to the season and as a result most sites are offering him at a 20-30% discount than you'll typically see. On Tuesday he gets to pitch at home where he's posted a 3.06 ERA for his career and he faces an Arizona offense that is middle of the pack against RHP. Over the last three years Cain has made 13 starts against Arizona and he's gone 9-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 7.4 K/9. Current Diamondback hitters have combined to hit .239/.313/.388 against Cain in their career and two of the best individual lines belong to Aaron Hill (disabled list) and Will Nieves (backup catcher unlikely to start). Cain has handled the DBacks LH power pretty well (Montero - .735 OPS, Parra - .599 OPS, Chavez, .357 OPS) and he's done well in small samples against Goldschmidt (.543 OPS) and Prado (.500 OPS). I'd normally take Cain at a discount at home no matter the opponent, but I think a watered down Diamondbacks lineup makes it even more enticing.
David Price (TB) - For our subscribers you'll remember I went into more detail about Price's early season struggles last week and noted much of the issues appeared very fix-able. I think Tuesday night at home where Price has a career 2.76 ERA is a really nice spot. The Yankees offense is watered down and especially so against LHP. Kevin Youkilis is one of their premier weapons against LHP and he might miss the game leaving Vernon Wells and Robinson Cano as the two primary threats. Price has largely handled Cano in his career (.234/.275/.340 in 47 AB's) and he's dominated Vernon Wells in 27 AB's (.148/.200/.22). Current Yankee hitters have just a .239/.309/.388 line against Price and their inability to present multiple threats from the right-handed side make me think this will be a strong outing from Price. Take advantage of the 20-30% discount on his current price.
Yovani Gallardo (MIL) - The Padres rank 27th in baseball in wOBA against RHP with a paltry .292 mark. Granted they've played much of the season without their best hitter, Chase Headley, who just recently returned but they're still a weakened offense overall. Gallardo is priced down on a lot of sites due to a poor start, but he rebounded last outing and the matchup with the Padres should be a good one to take advantage of. Over the last three years Gallardo has gone 3-1 with a 3.99 ERA and 30 K's in 29 1/3 innings against the Padres; and he's been especially strong at PETCO Park where he's posted a 2.84 ERA and 24 K's in 19 IP. Another high-end starter at a discounted price, Gallardo is a fine play tonight
With all the values at SP today it's hard to imagine having to go to the top end of the spectrum where Clayton Kershaw resides or even take a chance on Jose Fernandez (who is still mis-priced on many sites) on those sites that are counting the Marlins-Twins 2nd game (many are not). I'd stay in the sweet spot and opt for Gallardo, Cain, or Price with Cain being my top option of the three. Sites using multiple pitchers there's more temptation to drop down and get some elite hitters in the lineup, but on those sites Ogando is priced so low he's the value play I'd use there. Tony Cingrani has quickly been priced appropriately on most sites but if he can be had for the minimum somewhere, he's an obvious play. I also think Phil Hughes can be a solid play on multiple pitcher sites if you're looking for salary relief. I do like Ogando more than him, but Hughes has been solid on the road in his career and gets a Rays lineup struggling against RHP in a low-total game.
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