Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. In the space below I will break down the best and worst plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at ddinkmeyer@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather Concerns:
Weather continues to be an issue early in the season and for those that are new to daily fantasy baseball it lightens up considerably as the year goes on. April is always an unusual month for weather and the schedule makers do the best they can but simply too many teams are located in cold weather climates without a retractable roof. As the season's change you get unusual weather patterns and we're in a bit of a rut this week with where the games are being played. Last night we lost STL-PIT which I mentioned I thought had the greatest chance of postponement but that I thought they'd be able to get it in. It's never fun to lose stats to a rainout or postponement, but I wouldn't count out questionable weather games altogether. As typically greater than 75% of them get played. I'd just continue to use weather as a tie-breaker when making lineup decisions on games that look questionable.
Now today there are three games that look a lot worse to me than questionable. Let's start in Colorado where there is a 100% chance of snow and temperatures are supposed to be in the 20's from 5:00 MDT on. I don't see any way this game gets played so you won't see any recommendations from the Rockies-Mets game. It's not because there aren't great matchups, it's because I don't see much chance of a game being played. The next game that looks unlikely to be played is in Wrigley Field where the Rangers are set to take on the Cubs. Thunderstorms and heavy showers are in the forecast pretty much all day. From 5 PM CDT on the chance of precipitation ranges from 80%-100%. When rain is forecasted like this at Wrigley it usually results in a rainout so I'd avoid players from that game as well. The final one, and this pains me because I liked a lot of the bats, is in Minnesota where the forecast is for a 90-100% chance of "light rain". I could see the game getting in if it was just for a small window, but the forecast suggests it's going to rain all day long. For those with early lineup locks, these three games MUST be avoided. For those in late lineup periods you can watch the weather develop as the day goes on, but I'm not particularly optimistic.
Catchers:
Best Values:
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - Doumit will get to face Tommy Hanson on Wednesday in what figures to be a strong matchup. Hanson allowed a .381 wOBA to LHB's last year as they hit .293/.363/.526 off of him and launched 1.87 HR/9. Early on in 2013, Hanson's struggles against LHB's has continued as he's allowed a .381/.409/.762 line to LHB's in his first two starts. Without Hanson's former velocity he struggles to put LHB's away and his strong fly-ball tendencies lead to a lot of extra base hits. Doumit has hit for a lot of power in his career against RHP (.463 Slugging %) and he tends to get the ball up in the air a bunch. He's posted a career GB Rate of just 41% against RHP. With Hanson's struggles against LHB's and the Twins ability to stack them up, Ryan Doumit and Joe Mauer both make for solid plays. I prefer Doumit because of the price.
Matt Wieters (BAL) - Wieters price has come down on a number of sites because of a slow start to the season, but he homered last night and on Wednesday he faces a LHP he's had good history against. In 8 career AB's against Matt Moore, Wieters has homered twice, walked 3 times and struck out 3 times. It's been a bit all or nothing, but Wieters has also had much more success in his career against LHP than RHP. Wieters has hit .283/.352/.475 against LHP in his career, compared to .249/.318/.396 against RHP. He's clearly more comfortable on his natural side and he's had some modest success against Moore in his career. For a potential top 5 fantasy catcher his price is meaningfully down on the sites that I checked, making him a solid value.
Salvador Perez (KC) - Perez caught last night so he's at risk of not being in the lineup for the early game tomorrow, but if he is in the lineup his track record against LHP merits a mention. In Perez's brief career he's hit .364/.400/.605 against LHP and the opponent on Wednesday (Mike Minor) is especially susceptible to the long-ball against RHB's. Minor has allowed 1.17 HR/9 to RHB's over the last three years along with a 22% LD Rate. Minor still strikes out a decent bit of RHB's (19.8%) but Perez strikes out in less than 8% of his PA's against LHP. The matchup seems to be one ripe for the picking as Minor's propensity for hard-hit balls allowed should feed Perez's propensity to crush anything coming from the left side. Priced near the minimum on a lot of sites, Perez is a really strong value.
First Base:
Best Value Plays:
Paul Konerko (CHW) - The last time I attempted to pick on JA Happ with Red Sox batters it didn't go so well, but I remain a determined man. Happ has allowed a .343 wOBA to RHB's over the last three years and also surrendered 1.17 HR/9. Paul Konerko has always hit lefties well in his career (.297/.383/.551) and the Rogers Centre inflates HR's by 19% and overall run-scoring by 7%. The matchup is a strong one for Konerko based on opposing splits and the run-scoring environment and Konerko is priced as an average 1B on most sites. He's a very strong value play for a White Sox lineup that will attack JA Happ with likely 7-8 RHB's.
Ryan Howard (PHI) - Howard hasn't made the most of two favorable matchups in Cincinnati to start the series but perhaps he can take advantage of the third. The Reds will trot out Mike Leake who has surrendered a career .301/.350/.505 line to LHB's in Great American Ballpark. Leake struggles with the long-ball giving up 1.33 HR/9 to LHB's and the batted ball data suggests left-handers just see him really well. He's allowed a 22.7% LD Rate to left-handers and just a 3% infield-fly-ball rate. As a result the 30% FB Rate plays up in Great American because such a large percentage of those fly balls are leaving the infield. Howard is only relevant against RHP and with his bat slowing he's a better play against RHP's that don't have big velocity. Howard's hit a solid .333/.359/.500 against RHP this year (going into last night's game), showing he's still effective against righties. In a bandbox in Cincinnati, Howard is a nice play against a RHP who really struggles against LHB's, which the Phillies have loads of. Howard has also gone 6-12 with 2 HR's, 2 BB's, and 2 K's in his career against Leake for those who like the PvB.
The expensive 1B to target:
Albert Pujols (LAA) - Vance Worley hasn't looked right since 2011. His velocity has been in slow decline and as a result hitters have really squared him up well. He's allowed LD Rates over 24% the last two years and his HR/9 has been slowly climbing as well. Worley is also one of those rare pitchers that shows some reverse splits. He's allowed a .337 wOBA to RHB's compared to a .313 wOBA to LHB's. Pujols has hit all types of pitching in his career and while Target Field is tough on power overall, it actually plays up to RH power a bit. If you're looking to spend at 1B on Wednesday I think Pujols is your best bet.
Second Base:
Best Values:
Tyler Greene (CHW) - Tyler Greene is platooning with Connor Gillaspie in Gordon Beckham's absence and he provides a bit of an all-or-nothing approach at the plate. Greene has posted a solid .164 ISO against LHP but he also has struck out 24% of the time against LHP. He does have some success in a limited track record against JA Happ (5-11 with 1 2B, 2 HR's, and 3 K's) and with Happ's struggles against right-handed power I'm willing to take a very low risk at 2B on Wednesday. The position as a whole lacks a lot of value options but Greene is one of them on sites where he's priced near the minimum.
Kelly Johnson (TB) - Johnson hit 2nd in the lineup against a RHP on Tuesday night and I figure since the Rays scored more than 1 run they might try it again on Wednesday. Johnson hasn't had much difference in his career against LHP or RHP, but the opposing pitcher Chris Tillman has been a bit more susceptible to LHB's, allowing a .332 wOBA to them along with a 22% LD Rate. Tillman's actually allowed more power to RHB's but Johnson's a bit more of a LD hitter against RHP anyway. If Johnson is back in the 2-hole on Wednesday night he has some value to him at the thin 2B position
The Studs:
2B looks like a position you're going to want to spend money on tomorrow. The limited number of value picks coupled with some favorable matchups for the top guys make it a good day to target the high-end 2B.
Brandon Phillips (CIN) - I expect Phillips to be hitting clean-up for the Reds against John Lannan on Wednesday night. Lannan has been effective in his first few starts, especially keeping the ball on the ground (71.1% GB Rate), but his track record suggests weakness against RHB's. Over the last three years Lannan has walked more RHB's than he's struck out and his .347 wOBA is the most of any qualified starter going on Wednesday. He does do a good job keeping the ball in the park against RHB's (0.71 HR/9) but a 21.5% LD Rate coupled with a 9.1% BB Rate leads to a lot of base-runners. The Reds are pretty left-handed with their best hitters but they were Top 10 in the league against LHP last year and Joey Votto in front of Phillips is an on-base machine against any kind of pitching. As a result Phillips should have some favorable AB's with runners on and I expect him to take advantage of it tomorrow.
Chase Utley (PHI) - I addressed Mike Leake's issues against LHB's in the Ryan Howard blurb and I think Utley is a superior hitter to Ryan Howard at this point in their careers. Utley has been off to a hot start so he's far more expensive but if you're spending at 2B you might as well spend for the best option on Wednesday and I believe that to be Utley. Utley has hit .296/.375/.514 in his career against RHP and this year he's been on a tear against righties hitting .361/.400/.722 with a 1.50 EYE. Against a homer-prone Mike Leake in a plus offensive environment I think Utley is the best bet at 2B for Wednesday.
Shortstop:
Best Values:
Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) - Cabrera picked up a hit on Tuesday night which is at least a start. On Wednesday he'll face Alfredo Aceves who has largely been ineffective as a starter in his career. When Aceves starts he allows a 1.43 WHIP and 4.13 ERA compared to a 3.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as a reliever. We've covered that Cabrera swings the bat a bit better from the right side (against LHP), but his numbers against RHP are competent (.742 OPS) and with his current price on sites he's going to keep showing up in the value plays as long as he's facing below average pitching.
Zack Cozart (CIN) - Cozart is an interesting value play at SS if he's hitting in the #2 hole for the Reds which Dusty Baker has been known to do on occasion. Cozart has been a bit better against LHP in his brief career (.272/.290/.420) and specifically with any semblance of pop he's ever shown. We've covered Lannan's struggles against RHB's and if Cozart is hitting #2 with Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips behind him he'd be in a very strong position to score a run and cash in his value.
Stephen Drew (BOS) - Drew can hit RHP, for his career he's hit .273/.339/.445 against RHP and he's done it with a solid 9% BB Rate. Justin Masterson, Drew's opponent on Wednesday, cannot get out left-handed bats. In his career Masterson has allowed a .348 wOBA to LHB's. He's walked around 10% of the RHB's he's faced over his career while yielding a 19% LD Rate. The matchup would be a bit more ideal if the Red Sox were at home where left-handed power is really inflated, but Drew's matchup with Masterson is a strong enough one that if you can find him hovering around the minimum price on some sites he's a nice value.
Third Base:
Best Values:
Jeff Keppinger (CHW) - Keppinger has been a lefty-masher throughout his career posting a .333/.376/.486 line against LHP. We've covered in depth the struggles JA Happ has had against RHB's and Keppinger should be one of the ones he struggles most against simply because of Keppinger's very strong track record against lefties. On sites that don't consider splits he's an absolute steal and even priced adequately on the sites that do.
Evan Longoria (TB) - Longoria has homered in consecutive games and appears to be heating up. His price is still down on a bunch of sites because of the Rays slow offensive start as a team, so there's some value to be had. I mentioned in the blurb on Kelly Johnson that Chris Tillman struggles a bit more against LHB's but he surrenders way more power to RHB's, which suits Evan Longoria quite well. Longoria also has a nice brief history against Tillman as he's homered 3 times in 12 AB's against him while also walking 3 times and he's yet to strikeout. It's a small sample, but it's pretty dominant PvB for a small sample. Given it fits the splits Tillman has shown in his career and Longoria seems to be swinging a hot bat, I think paying for a slightly discounted Longoria is a great play at 3B.
Other Potential Underpriced Studs: Ryan Zimmerman (WAS), Adrian Beltre (TEX)
Outfield:
Best Value Plays:
Andre Ethier (LAD) - Tyson Ross has allowed a .367 wOBA to LHB's and he's nearly walked as many as he's struck out over the last three years thanks to a gaudy 12.5% BB Rate. Ross does get GB's against LHB's (54% GB Rate) so a dinger would appear unlikely for Ethier but hitting behind Adrian Gonzalez should yield him some RBI opportunities and Ethier's track record against RHP suggests he'd be able to cash them in. He's hit .310/.388/.523 in his career against RHP and posted a BB Rate near 11%. Ethier seems like one of the safer bets to get on-base and potentially multiple times on Wednesday.
Domonic Brown (PHI) - A favorite of the fix against mediocre RHP, we'll list Brown again for Wednesday's games. As noted repeatedly in today's fix Mike Leake really struggles against LHB's and the Phillies regular lineup contains 7 lefties. If Leake's track record against LHB's holds it's probable the Phillies will be able to put together a bunch of run-scoring opportunities early in the game. His 1.33 HR/9 allowed to LHB's also suggests someone is likely to take him deep, why not take the cheapest LHB of the bunch in Brown? Brown has only hit .250/.302/.425 against RHP so far this year but the .175 ISO against RHP should play nice in a park that accentuates power.
Matt Joyce (TB) - Joyce delivered for us yesterday with 2 hits including a 2B against Jake Arrieta. I noted I had a bit more faith in Joyce's ability to take advantage of the matchup with Arrieta because he was a RHP who didn't get ground-balls against lefties. The ground-balls had really been derailing Joyce's production of late and on Wednesday he's got another matchup against a RHP who struggles keeping the ball down to LHB's. Chris Tillman has generated just 40.8% GB's against LHB's over the last three years while surrendering a 20.1% LD Rate. Joyce figures to hit in the middle of the lineup again and Camden Yards is a favorable run scoring environment. In addition the hitters likely to be surrounding Joyce are ones with strong track records against Tillman giving some hope that Joyce could get some run/rbi opportunities in this one. He's near the minimum on a few sites and on those I think he's a must play. On sites where he's priced average there may be some other comparable options, but his history against RHP suggests it's only a matter of time before he starts driving the ball out of the park.
Dayan Viciedo (CHW) - Mike noted Viciedo's immense history against LHP earlier in the week and he delivered for us with a 3-hit effort. Just as a reminder Viciedo has hit .360/.393/.626 against LHP in 224 career plate appearances. For whatever reason his elite splits seemed to have slipped through the cracks on sites that focus on splits and he's priced extremely affordably. By this point you recognize I'm not a big fan of JA Happ against a RH heavy lineup and Viciedo (based on his price) might be the best play of the entire bunch. An early scan across sites make him look like the best value play in the OF on Wednesday.
There are so many good OF options tonight that I chose to highlight a few that I think could be extreme values. The more I looked at it though and as more lineups came out there were so many popping up. As a result I've decided to list some other value plays below, along with the best high-priced OFs to target.
Other potential values: Emilio Bonifacio (TOR), David Murphy (TEX), Peter Bourjos (LAA), Chris Heisey (CIN), Melky Cabrera (TOR), Vernon Wells (NYY)
The Elite OFs to Target: Mike Trout (LAA), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Bryce Harper (WAS), Josh Hamilton (LAA), Carl Crawford (LAD), Matt Kemp (LAD), Jose Bautista (TOR)
Starting Pitchers:
Best Value Plays:
Ryan Vogelsong (SF) - On the surface Vogelsong has had a horrible start to the season. He's posted a 7.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP through two starts and as a result his price has come way down on most sites. However if you dive in a bit deeper on Vogelsong you'll notice that many of the things he can control look just fine. Vogelsong is striking out 20.4% of the batters he's faced and walking just 5.6%. Over the last two years he's struck out ~19% and walked ~8%, so he's actually shown modest improvements through two outings in those areas. He is allowing far more line drives early on (25%, last two years ~19%) and as a result his BABIP has been elevated. A 5-6% increase in LD Rate would generally result in a 30-60 point increase in BABIP so we should expect Vogelsong to be posting a BABIP somewhere between .310 and .350, his current BABIP is .410. A big reason for this is a rather absurd 23% infield hit %. For context his career average is 7.2%. So it appears Ryan is due a bit of good fortune. In addition to some reversion in performance, I think the matchup on Wednesday is a perfect one for Vogelsong's skills. Over the last three years Vogelsong has held opposing RHB's to a .284 wOBA. For context Justin Masterson, who has dominated righties throughout his career has posted a .278 wOBA during that time to RHB's. The Brewers only have one LHB in their everyday lineup and they only have 3 players on the entire roster that bat from the left side. If Vogelsong maintains his dominance against RHB's this should be a good start to utilize him.
Ross Detwiler (WSH) - Detwiler is a bit of an enigma to fantasy analysts because his peripheral stats don't quite support the level of success he's had to this point in his career. Detwiler has posted a career 3.63 ERA to go along with a 4.17 FIP and 4.45 xFIP that both suggest he's pitched somewhere between a ½ run to ¾ of a run better than he's deserved. Detwiler doesn't put away many batters (14.3% K% career, 11.5% this year) but he does limit hard contact (16.4% LD Rate last year, 12.2% this year) and keeps the ball on the ground (51% GB Rate the last two years). This combination is enough with a strong Nats defense behind him to outperform the peripherals. On Wednesday he'll face a Marlins lineup that has been significantly better against LHP than RHP, but still ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball. Without Giancarlo Stanton (likely again), the Marlins lineup just doesn't pose much of a threat. Detwiler doesn't have much upside but he's allowed more than 3 ER's in just 3 of his last 19 starts dating back to the 2nd half of last year. With the Nationals looking to get a series win, I think Detwiler is a safe value play.
Shelby Miller (STL) - You'll have to check your site's pricing on Shelby because it is a wide range based on how dynamic the pricing model is. Those that adjust quickly have shot Miller's price up after two dominant starts to begin the season. Miller is 2-0 through 2 outings and he's struck out 25.5% of batters faced while posting a 60% GB Rate and puny 13.3% LD Rate. The 8.5% BB% is about the only blemish on the early performance and even that number is league average, which is actually a significant step for Miller. On Wednesday he'll get a Pirates offense that is hitting better of late but still ranks 25th in MLB in wOBA against RHP with a .295 wOBA. The Pirates have struck out in 21.6% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year which matches up nicely with Miller's skill-set. I think Shelby keeps on rolling in a favorable matchup and on sites that he's not priced near the top I think he makes a fine value play.
The Studs:
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - The Padres are pretty competent against LHP (rank 17th in wOBA) as they walk 10.8% of the time against lefties which help makes up for their utter lack of power (.083 ISO). Unfortunately for them they have to face Clayton Kershaw who has posted a 1.85 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 10 starts against them over the last three years. Kershaw is dominant at home for his career (2.29 ERA, .261 wOBA allowed) and has already started off the year with 16 shutout innings at home. The Dodgers are far and away the heaviest favorite today so this would appear to be one of the rare games that Kershaw gets run support as well. If price is no consideration, he's the clear-cut #1 starter going today.
Max Scherzer (DET) - The Mariners rank 22nd in baseball against RHP with a .299 wOBA and SAFECO outside of one offensive outburst by the Astros doesn't seem to be playing significantly different with the new park changes. Scherzer has been phenomenal early on as he's struck out a ridiculous 39.1% of batters faced and walked just 6.5%. His 13.9% swinging strike rate supports the elite strikeout rate and Scherzer's biggest issue (Fly balls and HR's) should be downplayed a bit in SAFECO where HR's have historically been suppressed by 23%. I think Scherzer is the clear-cut #2 SP to utilize today, on a day that includes King Felix and CC Sabathia.
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