Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. In the space below I will break down the best and worst plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). As a result these recommendations often focus on value. By reading the notes below you'll be able to identify not only value options but potential weak pitchers to exploit. If a player is not touched on, it doesn't mean they're not a good play. We have limited space and assessing value across all the sites is a bit subjective. Please feel free to e-mail me at ddinkmeyer@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: Two games have the possibility of delays tonight (PIT @ STL, CLE @ KC) as they have forecasts that include 50+% chance of rain throughout the games. Of course that means there's also 50% chance of no rain and baseball gets played without a hiccup. I ultimately think both games get played but am always a bit more cautious with pitchers in games that could see a delay. As a result Lance Lynn, who has a solid matchup, isn't listed under my value plays for pitching. He's a fine option just understand the risk of a delay is there.
Catchers:
Best Values:
Miguel Montero (ARZ) - Montero hasn't been delivering in these elite matchups of late, but we're going to stick with him. Montero gets a matchup with Juan Nicasio who has allowed a .358 wOBA to LHB's and it's come with a whopping 23% LD Rate and 1.63 HR/9 over the last three years. For his part Montero has hit .279/.358/.459 with a 20.6% LD Rate against RHP in his career. The matchup will take place in Chase Field which inflates run scoring by 12% and is very friendly for left-handed power. Frankly with where Montero is valued on most sites, I don't see a reason to play any other catcher on Friday. The fact he sat Thursday night also ensures his availability for Friday.
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - If you're inclined to look for other value options Ryan Doumit is a strong one. Doumit has been similarly strong against RHP in his career (.274/.333/.460) and Justin Grimm has allowed a .357 wOBA along with a 24% LD Rate in limited time against LHB's.
Salvador Perez (KC) - Some sites Perez is vastly cheaper than Montero and on those sites he deserves some consideration against LHP Scott Kazmir. Kazmir showed in his first start the feel-good story of spring training may be just another spring training miracle. Kazmir allowed 6 ER's in just 3 1/3 innings to the Astros. Over the last three years in limited time, Kazmir has allowed a .381 wOBA to RHB's and 1.14 HR/9. Perez, meanwhile, has hit .353/.389/.586 against LHP in his career with a stellar 0.82 EYE. There are a few sites that Perez's slow start has him near the minimum, which makes him an absolute steal.
First Base:
Best Values:
Allen Craig (STL) - Craig's slow start to the season has him priced as an average 1B across sites and the matchup with Jonathan Sanchez is a great one to exploit. Sanchez has allowed a .340 wOBA to RHB's with a 14% BB% and 1.15 HR/9 over the last three years. Craig has hit .319/.354/.585 in his career against LHP and the Cardinals figure to be one of the higher scoring teams on Friday night's slate. If you can get Craig for a discounted price jump on it.
Ryan Howard (PHI) - A few weeks back I wrote up a bunch of PHI hitters when they faced Dillon Gee and the result was Gee allowing 7 ER's in just 3 innings of work. In his career now Gee has allowed 22 ER's in 30 2/3 innings against the Phillies and a big part of the reason for his struggles with the Phillies is all the left-handed power they possess. Gee has allowed a .332 wOBA and 1.24 HR/9 to LHB's over the last three years. He walks nearly 11% of the LHB's he's faced and Howard has 3 HR's off of Gee in 9 AB's. Howard isn't nearly the player he used to be, but he is hitting .321/.333/.429 against RHP this year and in limited time last year he posted an adequate .784 OPS against RHP. With all the LHB's in front of him Howard also figures to see plenty of RBI chances on Friday night, providing a nice opportunity for fantasy production. He's a below average 1B option with an above average matchup and if you can get him at the price of an average 1B he's a fine play.
Adam Dunn (CHW) - Dunn has homered twice in the last four games and in one of those games he didn't homer he drew three walks. On Friday he'll draw a matchup against Roberto Hernandez who has allowed a .337 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years. Hernandez has shown some mild improvement this year but his .323 wOBA allowed to LHB's is being fueled by a 12.5% BB% to lefties. He doesn't give up many HR's as a ground-ball specialist (0.85 HR/9 to LHB), but his inability to miss bats should help Dunn. In addition Dunn has had some success in his limited appearances against Hernandez as he's gone 7-22 with 3 2B's and a HR (along with 8 K's). This one is very boom or bust but with Dunn heating up a bit of late, he's worth a gamble.
Billy Butler (KC) - Along with Salvador Perez, Billy Butler is the other big time left-handed masher the Royals possess. Butler has hit .317/.396/.539 in his career against LHP with a 0.96 EYE and a .222 ISO. We've touched on Scott Kazmir's issues against RHB's of late and Billy Butler will be a severe test for the left-hander. Butler is a value on all sites at his current price and one of the stronger plays at 1B on Friday.
Other strong plays at 1B: Edwin Encarnacion (TOR), Mike Napoli (BOS), Adam Lind (TOR), Adrian Gonzalez (LAD)
Second Base:
Best Values:
Jason Kipnis (CLE) - Kipnis slow start has his price way down and the matchup with homer-prone Ervin Santana is one that provides nice upside. Santana has allowed 1.38 HR/9 to LHB's over the last three years along with a 20.5% LD Rate and .339 wOBA. Kipnis hits near the top of the order and has been running when he does get on. It's a plus matchup for a player with a career .272/.345/.443 line against RHP and given his current price he's one of the more attractive values at the position.
Ben Zobrist (TB) - Jake Peavy is pretty darn good (.306 wOBA vs. LHB's) but he can be homer prone allowing 1.0 HR/9 to LHB's over the last three years. Ben Zobrist is priced way below his average price on most sites and given the strong, albeit limited, history against Peavy (4-7 2 2B's, 1 HR), Zobrist is an adequate high risk/high reward play. Given the Rays struggles against RHB's as a whole I'll probably pass on Zobrist, but I do think he has value on certain sites.
The Studs:
2B looks like a position where I'd encourage paying up on Friday. Robinson Cano is at home and while he's facing a LHP, Aaron Laffey is terrible. The problem for Cano is on sites that price based off of splits he's priced as if he's facing a RHP (Josh Johnson scratched) so he's exceptionally expensive. Chase Utley is one of the barrage of LHB's in the Phillies lineup that get a favorable matchup with Dillon Gee. Dustin Pedroia gets a matchup against a LHP in Fenway which he's posted a .957 OPS in his career in those spots. Ian Kinsler gets a LHP and has been red-hot. You really can't go wrong with any of the four, but Dustin Pedroia appears to be the best value after doing some preliminary scans across sites. He's probably the 2B option I'll end up with most on Friday.
Shortstop:
Best Values:
Starlin Castro (CHC) - All season long we've stressed Wade LeBlanc's reverse splits but it's not as if he's particularly great against RHB's either. He's allowed a .329 wOBA to RHB's the last three years and the 20.5% LD Rate accompanied by the 1.06 HR/9 suggests right-handed bats square him up pretty well. In Starlin Castro's brief career he's been far better against LHP (.315/.366/.446), showing much better plate patience against lefties. Castro continues to be priced like a below average SS option because of the supporting cast around him limiting runs/rbi opportunities, which makes him a value in plus matchups. Fire him up for this one against LeBlanc.
Jed Lowrie (OAK) - Lowrie is priced all over the board on the sites I looked at, but I'm comfortable playing him at most prices on Friday. Lowrie is a switch-hitter who has been dominant against LHP in his career. He's hit .299/.369/.489 against lefties with a stellar 0.75 EYE and .190 ISO. He'll face Wei Yen Chen who has allowed 1.32 HR/9 to RHB's and posted a .322 wOBA with a 22% LD Rate in his career. The A's offense has been extraordinary against LHP so far this season (.369 wOBA, ranks 2nd in MLB) and Lowrie has been in the middle of it all season. Look for that to continue on Friday night against the Baltimore left-hander.
Those two appear to be the strongest values across sites and the players I'm most likely to utilize. As always if you want to spend on Tulowitzki, he's never a poor choice. Jimmy Rollins also has a great matchup with Dillon Gee who he's 7-11 off of, but Rollins appears a bit pricier across sites than these two. If you can find him at a competitive price with Lowrie and Castro he's a nice play as well; otherwise, Lowrie and Castro are likely your best bets.
UPDATE: Jayson Nix is hitting 2nd in the Yankees lineup against a horrible Aaron Laffey. His .734 OPS against LHP is basically average and he's priced at the bare minimum a lot of places. He's a cheap way to get exposure to the Yankees.
Third Base:
Best Values:
Michael Young (PHI) - Young is the beneficiary of Dillon Gee's struggles with LHB's which provide Young RBI opportunities in bunches. Gee's style (attacking RHB's away with sliders and back-door two-seamers) perfectly suits Young's hitting style which is geared towards driving the ball the other way. In 5 career AB's against Gee, Young has homered twice and collected 4 hits. I don't think it's a coincidence based on Gee's unwillingness to pound right-handers inside. Young is priced down because he typically hits left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching, but I think this is a good matchup for him.
Eric Chavez (ARZ) - Juan Nicasio really struggles against LHB's and Chavez has typically drawn the starts for the Diamondbacks against lefties. Chavez is posting just a .726 OPS vs. RHP this year but last year he produced a stellar .908 OPS against RHP. Given Nicasio's struggles (.358 wOBA, 23% LD Rate), Chavez figures to be a strong play in one of the higher total games on the board. On sites where Chavez is priced near the bare minimum, he's an especially strong play.
David Freese (STL) - Freese has hit .321/.382/.459 in his career against LHP and Friday's starter Jonathan Sanchez has really struggled with RHB's. He's yielded a .340 wOBA and 1.15 HR/9 over the last three years and was struggling mightily with the Cardinals last week before the game got washed out. I expect the Cardinals to get to Sanchez early and often and Freese should have some strong RBI opportunities hitting near the middle of the Cardinals lineup. Injuries plus a slow start to the season have Freese priced way down and Friday is a nice day to exploit that value.
If you're going to pay:
Miguel Cabrera is the premier 3B play of the day as he gets to face a LHP in Paul Maholm. David Wright has had a lot of success against Kyle Kendrick in his career and Adrian Beltre gets to face a LHP in Scott Diamond. Between the three of them I'd rank them in that order with Cabrera being the one I'm most likely to spend on. I'll have a hard time passing up the value on Freese or Chavez though.
Outfield:
Best Values:
Vernon Wells (NYY) - There are two primary things working in Wells favor tonight; 1) Aaron Laffey is left-handed and 2) Aaron Laffey is terrible. Laffey has allowed a .353 wOBA to RHB's in his career and this year he's been especially bad as both RHB and LHB are posting an OPS north of 1.000 against him this year. Even in Wells down years he's been able to hit LHP respectably and for his career he's posted a .289/.351/.486 line against LHP. This year he's hit .324/.361/.647 against LHP and homered last night off Mark Buehrle. On some sites he's priced well above average and in those instances I might back off for some more under-priced studs, but in places where he's priced like an average OF I think he's a really solid value tonight.
Josh Hamilton (LAA) - Hamilton's slow start to the season has him priced as merely an above average OF as opposed to elite OF. His matchup with Aaron Harang (.342 wOBA allowed to LHB) should allow Hamilton to play the part of elite OF. Hamilton has hit .312/.377/.574 in his career against RHP and Harang has historically had issues with home runs. This year he's already served up 4 HR's in 9 2/3 innings pitched. Getting a discounted price on Josh Hamilton in a favorable matchup against a bad RHP is the recipe for a nice value play.
Melky Cabrera/Jose Bautista/Colby Rasmus (TOR) - In his career at home Ivan Nova has allowed opposing batters to hit .277/.351/.473 for a .356 wOBA and it comes with 1.28 HR/9 allowed. He's been equally bad against RHB's and LHB's at home (.360 wOBA vs. RHB, .352 wOBA vs. LHB) but has allowed far more HR's to lefties (1.48 HR/9 vs. 1.07 HR/9 to RHB). There is value in all of the competent Blue Jay hitters tonight, especially those with power. Melky Cabrera (5-8, 1 2B, 2 HR) and Jose Bautista (4-10, 1 HR, 5 BB, 1 K) have had the most success in limited appearances but Colby Rasmus (career .774 OPS vs. RHP) isn't a bad play either.
Matt Kemp (LAD) - A couple sites have been slow to adjust Kemp's salary after he's started to produce the last few days. We don't have much data to work on with Hiram Burgos but he struggled with the long-ball and walks at the minor league level on way to a 5.18 FIP before being promoted. In his first start he showed an impressive 55% GB Rate but he didn't strike anyone out and his stuff was below average. Kemp hasn't hit right-handed pitching very well to start the year but he looks to be rounding into form of late (.394/.432/.545 over his last 9 games) and with his price depressed to that of merely "above average OF" on a few sites, he's worth a look.
Jeff Francoeur (KC) - Frenchy has always hit LHP and while he's struggling overall this year he's still hit .389/.421/.500 against LHP and for his career he's hit .291/.342/.480 good for a .346 wOBA. Scott Kazmir has been crushed to the tune of a .382 wOBA allowed to RHB's and 1.75 HR/9. Francoeur is listed around the bare minimum on a bunch of sites and as a result is one of the better value plays out there today. If you're looking to save a bit of money at the OF position, Frenchy could be one of your best bets.
Other Potential Value Plays: Gerardo Parra (ARZ), Domonic Brown (PHI), Travis Snider (PIT), Ben Francisco (NYY), Andre Ethier (LAD), Scott Hairston (CHC), Jonny Gomes (BOS), Matt Joyce (TB), Lorenzo Cain (KC), Chris B. Young (OAK), Shane Robinson (STL)
Under-priced Star OF's to Target: Giancarlo Stanton (MIA), Matt Holliday (STL), Carlos Beltran (STL), Austin Jackson (DET)
Expensive Star OF's to Target: Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Mike Trout (LAA)
Starting Pitchers:
Best Values:
Ryan Dempster (BOS) - Dempster's price appears highly variable across the sites I've checked so make sure you're actually getting him as a value. Anything that is moderately above the average pitching price is fine. If he's priced as one of the most expensive pitchers it might be best to move on. The Astros have struck out in 28% of their PA's against RHP and to make matters worse they've only walked in 5.5%. This is good news for Dempster who has seen a spike in his K% this year because of an increased usage of his split-finger fastball. The pitch generates more swings and misses but also generates more pitches outside the strike zone. His 39.5% Zone % is amongst the lowest in the league for qualified starters and is 8 percentage points below his career average (47.3%). This is the reason Dempster has also seen a spike in his BB Rate. While the new approach has some pluses and some minuses to it, it is perfectly suited for an impatient Astros lineup. With the emphasis placed on strikeouts in daily fantasy baseball, Dempster is one of the best starts going today.
Jake Peavy (CHW) - The Rays are the 6th worst offense in baseball against RHP, mustering just a .294 wOBA. Peavy is susceptible to teams with a lot of left-handed power and the Rays just don't possess it. Last year Peavy posted a 3.10 ERA at home, allowing a .272 wOBA, and over the last three years he's posted a 22% K% and 3.34 FIP when pitching at home. He and Dempster are close in terms of the top pitcher of the day, but I think Peavy is a touch safer. If you're playing on sites where you use a limited number of pitchers I think the decision comes down to Peavy and Dempster as your ace.
Scott Feldman (CHC) - Only a consideration on sites where you start multiple starting pitchers because Feldman frankly isn't good enough to be your lone starter unless you're taking a high risk/high reward approach and with all the hitting value out there today I don't see the need to. Feldman is a very average pitcher. In his career he's posted a 4.59 FIP and 4.54 xFIP which are below the league average. So far his transition to the NL has been spotty as he's walked as many as he's struck out and gone 0-3 in 3 starts. Why on earth is he even being considered? Well because he's facing the Marlins; the team with a league-worst .542 OPS against RHP. This is also the team that has Joe Mahoney and Donovan Salano hitting 4 and 5 in their lineup tonight. Feldman isn't going to blow you away but he'll likely earn his value on many sites if he simply can limit the Marlins to under 3 ER's in 6 innings of work. Considering the Marlins are averaging 2.59 runs/game this year, I think he can do it. Again ONLY for consideration on sites with multiple SP's, but he certainly will provide some salary relief to be able to load up on offense or other stud starters.
Andrew Cashner (SD) - The Giants have been above average against RHP this year (.323 wOBA), but Cashner is really under-priced for his talent on most sites. As a starter in his career Cashner has posted a 0.98 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. His command issues also seem to go away when he's given the ability to get into rhythm as evidenced by a stellar 4.4% BB Rate in 28 2/3 IP as a starter. Cashner was really strong in his first start last week against the Giants allowing just 2 hits and 1 BB over 4 IP. One of the hits was a HR so he ended up allowing 2 ER's but he also struck out 5. His pitch limit in that game was 65 and I'd expect him to be stretched out to 80-90 tonight, which should be enough to let him go 6 innings. In a favorable pitching environment in PETCO I think he's a value on sites he's priced similarly to guys like Scott Feldman.
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