Josh Johnson (SP - TOR): Johnson struggled again on Sunday as he allowed 4 ER's over 5 1/3 innings to the Yankees. Johnson gave up 8 hits and 3 BB's, while also serving up a HR for the third time in four starts. Johnson saw a mild velocity dip last year, but his fastball averaged 94 mph in the start on Sunday. He continues to generate swinging strikes in bulk (13 on 93 pitches, 14%), but walks and line drives remain his downfall. With three more walks on Sunday Johnson's BB Rate has pushed above 4.0 BB/9 and his HR/9 has jumped to 1.37 even with a neutral 12.5% HR/FB Rate. The big issue for Johnson is he's no longer getting ground balls (40% GB Rate) which are leading to more extra base hits allowed. This issue is being exaggerated by Johnson's elevated BB Rate which allows those extra base hits to happen with more runners on base than typical. If you're looking for an optimistic take on Johnson the velocity is recovering and he's still generating swings and misses. He's still a ways away from contributing as a fantasy asset but those two indicators suggest it's still within him. With Johnson's next start coming in Yankee Stadium I think owners need to play it safe and reserve the struggling right-hander.
Ervin Santana (SP - KC): Santana ran his record to 2-1 on the season with 7 strong innings in Boston. Santana allowed just 6 hits and didn't walk a batter while allowing just 2 ER's and striking out 7. Santana's bumped his strikeout rate early in the season (21% K%) thanks to an increased chase rate (31.3%) and an increased swinging strike rate (10.9%).These rates rival Santana's breakout 2008 season, a season in which his velocity ticked up to 94.4 mph on his average fastball. This year Santana's velocity has been the same (91.5 mph) but he's upped his slider usage to over 42% (a career high). Santana's slider has always been his best pitch so it's not a surprise to see improved strikeout rates, but the strong command accompanying it is a bit of a surprise. Increased slider usage has also led to increased injury rates in the past, so there is a bit of elevated injury risk but with Santana in the final year of his contract, I'm not surprised to see him trade-off some health for a chance at increased effectiveness. Even with the boost in peripherals, Santana's performance is still well beyond his peripherals. A .278 BABIP and 87.1% LOB% is suppressing his ERA by nearly a full run. Santana can hold fantasy value with the increased slider usage and consequently the bigger K Rate, but his production will likely settle in as a #4 fantasy starter and not the #2 he's currently performing like. Still, he's made some nice improvements to his profile and those that have taken the chance on claiming Santana should feel like they got a free back-end starter. Continue to monitor the K Rate going forward as that will drive his fantasy value.
Gavin Floyd (SP - CHW): Floyd's maddening start to the season continued on Sunday with a strong effort against the Twins. Floyd limited Minnesota to just 1 ER on 3 hits and 3 walks over 6 innings. He struck out 6 which now gives him at least 5 strikeouts in each of his four starts this season and 24 K's in 21 1/3 IP overall. Floyd's getting batters to chase at a career high 35.5% rate and generating over an 11% swinging strike rate. Floyd's still getting ground balls at a solid 49% clip which paired with the elite strikeout rates should result in a pretty darn good pitcher. Unfortunately Floyd has really battled walk problems the last two years, something that wasn't present in the early part of his career. Last year Floyd's zone % (amount of pitches in the strike zone) fell to a career worst 42% and early on this season he's replicating that 42.6% mark. He's been able to work from ahead a bit more this year (71% first strike, 59.9% last year) but that seems a bit fluky early on and the high BB Rates coupled with high LD Rates suggest he's still working himself into plenty of hitter's counts. Ground balls and strikeouts are two essential components to success as a pitcher but when they're paired with shoddy command and a 25% LD Rate, you end up with an inconsistent producer. It's hard to know what Floyd has in store for us going forward, but back-to-back years with increased BB Rates and low Zone %'s is starting to make him look like Edinson Volquez. Until the command improves dramatically I'm shying away from Floyd in traditional mixed leagues.
Mark Reynolds (1B - CLE): Reynolds remarkable first month of the season continued on Sunday as he went 1-3 with his 7th HR of the season. Reynolds early-season performance has been characterized by a drop in his K Rate and an extraordinary surge in his ISO. It's a perfect combination for Reynolds' fantasy value but the question is how sustainable is it? Reynolds K Rate is down to 22.7% but his swinging strike rate remains an elevated 15.6% (career 16.5%, 13.5% last year). He's tightened up his strike zone modestly (23.8% chase rate, career 26.2%) but that was never a problem for Reynolds. The problem was contact and his current 64.5% contact rate is right in line with his career rate (64%). As a result it's hard to buy that Reynolds can maintain a K% in the low 20%'s when his career average is 32.4%. The ISO is a bit harder to evaluate. Clearly he won't keep it above .400 (career high .284) but Reynolds batted ball data is very conducive to power. He's posted a 51% FB Rate which is 4 percentage points above his career average which coupled with some good fortune on his HR/FB Rate (28.6%) gives him an incredible .400+ ISO. Now a 7% LD Rate could mean the rather large FB Rate is at risk when he starts hitting a few more line drives and in turn that would cause a steep decline in his ISO. Ultimately I think Reynolds settles in closer to a .220+ ISO along with the typical below average batting average contributions and some improved run/rbi totals from the Cleveland offense. He's a solid sell high candidate.
Nelson Cruz (OF - TEX): One of our preseason values Nelson Cruz has a big afternoon on Sunday as he picked up 2 hits including a grand slam raising his season line to .290/.319/.478. Cruz has had a productive fantasy line (3 HR's, 7 R, 10 RBI, .290 average) but some of his indicators are showing further decline. His chase rate is at a career high 38% as is his swinging strike rate (15.4%). The deteriorating plate discipline is showing up in his BB Rate which has collapsed below 3%. To this point in the season Cruz's fantasy line hasn't suffered because he's been able to make consistently solid contact. His 20% LD Rate and career low 4.8% infield-fly-ball rate are fueling an elevated .340 BABIP. Unfortunately when those rates normalize the batting average will tumble. Cruz's current skills suggest he's more of a .250 hitter than the current .290. The power is still there, but his ISO is in a steady 4-year decline that suggests he's now more of a mid-20's HR hitter than the 30+ of years past. Add in Cruz's health concerns (just 1 season above 130 games) and I think Cruz is a player worth entertaining as a sell high if he gets on a power run.
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