David Price (SP - TB): Price was knocked around for 5 ER's on 8 hits over 6 innings against the Orioles on Thursday night. Price did strike out 8 and didn't walk a batter, but command seemed to do him in repeatedly. While he wasn't wild, Price did miss up a number of times and as a result 5 of the 8 hits Price gave up went for extra bases (4 2B's, 1 HR). For the season Price's K Rate, BB Rates, and GB Rates are all in-line with his Cy Young performance last season. An elevated LD Rate and HR/FB Rate have been the culprits to the slow start and a lot of that is the result of missing his spots in the zone. The one area of concern for Price is his swinging strike rate is noticeably down (6.6% vs. career 8.6%), but he rebounded with a 9.3% rate last night. I know many owners will be frustrated with Price's slow start to the season, but he appears close. Stay patient and avoid temptations to sell low.
David Murphy (TEX - OF): I've been fighting a losing battle in the daily games as I keep recommending David Murphy against mediocre right-handed pitching and he keeps letting me down. As a result I decided to check in on Murphy's struggles in the early-going to see if there was anything in the peripherals that stood out. The first thing that stands out in Murphy's profile is a drop in his BB Rate, not just below last year's 10% peak, but below his career average of 8.8%. Looking at the plate discipline numbers we see that Murphy's swing % (48%) is 6 percentage points above his career average and his chase rate (34.3%) is 9 percentage points above his career average as well. The decrease in his plate patience is obviously carrying over to the lower walk rate. However, not all hope is lost. Murphy's contact rate is actually above his career average and it appears the jump in his chase rate and swinging strike rate might simply be from an abnormally high first strike %. For his career Murphy has started down 0-1 about 58% of the time which is in-line with the league average, but this year he's seen 66% first pitch strikes. In addition when Murphy has made contact it's been an even better distribution of batted balls than he normally produces. His 21% LD Rate is 2 percentage points above his career average and a 45.2% FB Rate is a career high, which over time would likely produce more power. Unfortunately his current 5.3% HR/FB Rate (career average of 10.6%) isn't allowing it to shine through. With a BABIP (.160) about half his expected BABIP and a HR/FB Rate half his career average, it appears Murphy's struggles this season are mostly the result of poor luck. Stay patient.
Zach McAllister (SP - CLE): McAllister had been pitching well above his head the first two starts of the season and on Thursday night he was dealt a dose of reality against a good Red Sox lineup. McAllister limited the damage to just 3 ER's over 5 innings but he allowed 6 hits and 3 BB's as his ERA climbed to 3.12 on the season. McAllister did strike out 7 which continues to be a positive sign for the 25 year old. He's now striking out over 8 batters per 9 innings and his swinging strike rate is approaching 10% (career average 8.2%). McAllister has always been stingy with the BB's and last night's 3 BB's were the first of the season for him and this is important because he relies heavily on Fly Balls, which have a way of leaving the yard every now and then. If McAllister can keep the BB's down and lower the percentage of Fly Balls he's allowing by lowering the batted ball total as a whole (via more K's), he's got a chance to post a high 3's ERA, a WHIP in the high 1.20's and over 7.5 K/9. However if the K's come down and more balls are left in play we could easily see McAllister's production dive back closer to the career 4.29 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. It's a tightrope that fly-ball pitchers walk and so far McAllister has done a nice balancing act. With Cleveland's improved outfield defense behind him he should be able to continue to post low BABIPs (career .269) which means the fate of his fantasy season will result in the ability to keep generating swinging strikes. I continue to like McAllister as a deep-league option because of the strikeouts, but caution owners that he's more of a spot-start option in traditional 12 team formats.
Francisco Cervelli (C - NYY): Cervelli launched a game-tying HR in the 9th inning of the Yankees 6-2 extra inning loss to the Diamondbacks. The homer was the 2nd of the season for Cervelli who is somehow now hitting .294/.415/.500 on the season. The highest full season OPS Cervelli has put together above high A is the .719 OPS he produced in 2011 at the major league level. He's always hovered around a .700 OPS, but this year his peripherals are remarkably elite. He's walked at a 17% clip which is almost 2 times the 9.1% K Rate he's posted and when he's made contact he's hit the ball with force, posting a 38% LD Rate and just a 26.9% GB Rate. The fact that the elite peripherals support the elite production makes you wonder if Cervelli has had some crazy revelation in the magical age 27 year, but for me it just causes more confusion. We're still in the small sample territory (41 PA's) so I'm going to lean on the history of data that suggests Cervelli is a below average offensive option, but the production to this point isn't fluky in the sense that it's supported by very strong peripherals. In deep leagues I've moved off a borderline 2nd catcher (or filled a roster spot in the wake of Wilson Ramos DL stint) for Cervelli but I'm not expecting anything more than riding a short-term hot streak.
RA Dickey (SP - TOR): Dickey was rolling for the 2nd consecutive start before he had to leave the game with back/neck tightness. The Blue Jays indicated after the game they expect Dickey to make his next start but the injury certainly overshadowed Dickey's 2nd straight strong start. I noted after Dickey's first two starts that the most concerning part for me was the lack of K's was forcing me to re-value Dickey back towards the 2010-2011 levels. Even in Dickey's previous start which was an improvement his K% was just 15.4%. On Thursday night, however, he struck out a whopping 35% of the White Sox batters he faced. I'm still not sure we see Dickey's K% rebound back towards the 2012 numbers, but Thursday night's outing was the first sign of 2012 Dickey we've seen all year. For the season his BB Rate remains elevated and his GB% remains a significant concern (42%, career 47.4%), which is why I continue to temper my expectations for Dickey back towards 2010-2011, but at least Thursday was a step in the right direction.
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