Well, yesterday was our first real rough day of the season as things just did not go as predicted. It was an unfortunate end to a strong opening week. Now, let's put it in the rear view mirror and keep grinding! I do want to point out, though, that we try to get this information to you in a timely manner. The negative side of that is we do not have all the lineup information available, so please make sure to double check team lineups before using our recommended plays.
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Catchers
Slow Starting Studs
Buster Posey (SF) - Posey may be underpriced on some sites due to his slow start, and today is a good day to take advantage of him. He faces Jorge de la Rosa, a LHP who has allowed RHB to post a .339 wOBA and hit 1.30 HR/9 since 2010. Posey's career numbers against LHP are really out of this world - a BA/OBP/SLG line of .351/.407/.652.
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Like Posey, Mauer is underpriced on some sites as he is yet to record an RBI on the season and is hitting .231. He also has a big splits advantage today with a career .337/.424/.511 line against RHP. And working in Mauer's favor is the fact that opposing pitcher Ervin Santana has struggled with left handed bats, allowing a .342 wOBA to them since 2010.
First Base
Strong Value Plays
Chris Carter (HOU) - Carter gets a good matchup today hitting against LHP Joe Saunders. Saunders' .361 wOBA allowed to RHB is the worst split of any pitcher in action today; he has allowed 1.29 HR/9 to RHB and struck out just 11.4% of them since 2010. Carter possesses a ton of power (.275 ISO last season) and boasted an impressive .386 wOBA to go along with a .92 EYE against LHP in 2012.
Mitch Moreland (TEX) - Moreland is priced very cheaply on a lot of sites, and today is a good day to use him. Opposing pitcher Jeremy Hellickson gives up 1.21 HR/9 against LHB and 1.25 HR/9 on the road. Today he will be pitching in the 3rd best hitter's park as opposed to his home park, which is the 25th best hitter's park. The splits are also favorable for Moreland who slugs 100 points better at home than on the road and 152 points better versus RHP than LHP.
The Stud Play
Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ) - Frankly, whenever Goldschmidt is facing a left and at a home, it is a combination that will land him on the stud play list. He's likely expensive, particularly on sites that take splits into account with their pricing, but salary aside he is the top 1B play of the day. Last season Goldschmidt posted a pretty insane .343/.423/.645 line against LHP. For those of you keeping track at home, that's a .302 ISO. While Wandy Rodriguez is not awful against RHB, Goldschmidt is just so enormously elite against LHP that he's a guy I will try very hard to work in as long as the salary is somewhat reasonable.
Boom or Bust GPP Play
Justin Morneau (MIN) - While I like Ervin Santana to bounce back this season, the fact is he has given up a whopping 1.43 HR/9 against LHB since 2010. This is the highest mark of any pitcher starting today against LHB. While injuries and age have taken away much of Morneau's prime, he still hit righties very well last year - 17 HR's in 307 at bats with a .902 OPS. He's one of the better bets to go yard today.
Second Base
Strong Value Plays
Jason Kipnis (CLE) - Kipnis does not have an amazing matchup as Hiroki Kuroda allows an acceptable .314 wOBA to RHB. However, on the few sites I've checked so far, I haven't seen anyone priced less than Kipnis that I like better. On his young career, Kipnis hits RHP way better than LHP with a wOBA of .342 that is 64 points higher than against LHP. Those numbers and the fact that he just appears to be underpriced where I've checked lead me to make him a strong value play today.
Neil Walker (PIT) - Walker's price may be severely depressed on some sites due to his horrid start. He is literally yet to record a fantasy counting stat in 5 x 5 leagues and is hitting just .100. Hopefully that all changes today as the underpriced Walker has a positive matchup. He is hitting in Chase Field which according to parkfactors.com is the 9th best ballpark for offense - a large improvement from Walker's home park which rates 26th. Cahill is pretty solid against LHB, but this game is tied for the highest betting total on the day (9) so I'm willing to take a chance on Walker (likely hitting second) even if this is one of the few recommended plays where the splits are not that favorable.
Dustin Ackley (SEA) - I like Ackley to have a big bounce back season so I think he's underpriced in general. On top of that, he faces off against RHP Phil Humber today who has allowed LHB to post a .338 wOBA since 2010. With Ackley pretty cheap on most sites, I'll probably use him due to the favorable splits play.
The Stud Play
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - Although you could make a case for Robinson Cano, if I'm paying up at 2B today it is likely for Pedroia. He has a very good .372 wOBA against LHP for his career with an awesome EYE of 1.54. This works out well for Pedroia today as he faces LHP Wei-Yin Chen who allowed RHB to post a .324 wOBA, 22.4 LD rate and 1.37 HR/9 last season. Pedroia is also at home where he is most comfortable (.382 career wOBA at home).
Shortstop
Strong Value Plays
Starlin Castro (CHC) - Like Walker, this play is more about the price than the matchup. While Marco Estrada is really good against RHB, Castro is priced on a few sites like a mediocre SS when he entered the season as the clear cut #3 fantasy SS. There's not a lot I love at SS today so my strategy is to take the underpriced talent, and Castro best represents that.
Andrelton Simmons (ATL) - Before using Simmons, make sure he is in the lineup today as he has missed the last couple of games with a left thumb sprain. I like Simmons today because opposing pitcher Kevin Slowey isn't very effective regardless of the handedness of the batter. He has allowed a .345 wOBA and 22.8 LD rate to RHB since 2010. Slowey has a career 4.63 ERA and last pitched (prior to this year's opener) in the MLB in 2011 where he appeared in 14 games (started 8) and posted a 6.67 ERA. I expect the Braves to put up a handful of runs today as a result, and if Simmons is batting leadoff, there's a good chance he comes in to score today.
Third Base
Strong Value Plays
Will Middlebrooks (BOS) - Sure, the one day I don't write up Middlebrooks, and he goes out and hits 3 HR. Lucky for us, though, that performance is not yet calculated into today's pricing. As I stated in Pedroia's blurb, Wei-Yin Chen struggles against RHB, particularly in the power department (1.37 HR/9 allowed). This meshes perfectly with Middlebrooks' awesome power against LHP (.256 ISO, .906 OPS, 9 HR in 90 AB's against LHP last year).
Boom or Bust GPP Play
Juan Francisco (ATL) - Francisco should be in Atlanta's lineup today with a RHP (Kevin Slowey) on the bump for the opposition. As I mentioned in Simmons' blurb, I expect the Braves to put up a handful of runs today, and Francisco (.232 ISO against RHP last season) has a chance to be a part of it. Francisco is always a risk due to his awful plate discipline, even against opposite handed pitching (.18 EYE last season), but he also has the upside needed out of a GPP play due to the aforementioned power against RHP combined with Slowey's .344 wOBA against LHB.
Outfield
Must Have One of the...
Braves - Depending on price, you could realistically expect to get solid value out of anyone in the Braves' outfield today. Kevin Slowey has allowed a .344 wOBA to LHB and .345 wOBA to RHB since 2010, so he's terrible against all batters. Justin Upton has been on such a tear, that he may have priced himself out of this conversation, depending on how much cap space you need. That still leaves BJ Upton (likely the cheapest of the 3, doesn't have a big negative split against same handed pitching) and Jason Heyward (the best splits to play of the 3 - .377 wOBA against RHP).
Strong Value Plays
Jonny Gomes (BOS) - As I mentioned earlier in this article, Wei-Yin Chen has his struggles against RHB. On the flip side of that, Gomes loves to hit against LHP with a career .384 wOBA against LHP. I could see playing him on any format today, but he is a particularly strong value on those sites that less heavily weight splits into their pricing.
Justin Maxwell (HOU) - Maxwell surprisingly has decent plate discipline against LHP (.63 EYE) and a very respectable batting line of .272/.387/.505 (these figures are from 2012). This makes him a strong play against the LHP Joe Saunders today. As I mentioned in Chris Carter's blurb, Saunders is absolutely horrendous at getting RHB out and allows them to hit for a lot of power. Maxwell, who is death to normal roto players because of his inability to hit for an acceptable BA, has a power/speed combo that plays nicely in the points format, particularly with the good matchup. He is an even better play on sites that do not deduct extra for striking out as that is Maxwell's biggest weakness.
Brett Gardner (NYY) - After missing most of last season and getting off to a slow start this season (.160 BA, 0 SB), Gardner is way cheaper than he should be on a lot of sites. He is likely hitting leadoff today as the Yankees face off against Ubaldo Jimenez whose career has been in a tailspin the last 2 years (4.68 ERA in 2011, 5.40 ERA in 2012). This is a pretty safe cheap play to insert into your lineups and build around today.
The Royals
As I sifted through the different positions, none of the Royals jumped out at me specifically at their price points. However, it's probably a good idea to work 1 or 2 of them into your lineup today as they face off against Kevin Correia who has a career 4.53 and since 2010 has struggled against both RHB (.341 wOBA) and LHB (.325 wOBA).
Starting Pitcher
Best Play
Madison Bumgarner (SF) - It might be worth it to pay up for Bumgarner today, as he is clearly the best starting pitcher throwing. Vegas agrees with me as the Giants are the day's biggest favorites, and their game also has the lowest over/under on the day.
Value Plays
Edwin Jackson (CHC) - Jackson is facing off against an injury riddled Brewers' team that could be without Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart and Jean Segura today. Plus, the Brewers boast a heavily right handed lineup, which works in Jackson's favor as he strikes out just over 20% of RHB and allows a wOBA 20 points less than he does against LHB.
Marco Estrada (MIL) - I like Estrada today because I think his K rate (second highest of starting pitchers today) gives him a nice base value of points. He faces the Cubs who had the second worst wOBA against RHP in 2012. So far this season, the Cubs in total have struck out at the 5th highest rate in MLB.
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