I hope this first full week of the Fantistics' Daily Fantasy Fix has helped you win on your respective daily fantasy websites. I think there were more hits than misses and hopefully that translated into more wins than losses for you. If you have any suggestions for the format, please let us know!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Please note that I do not list a lot of stud plays today. That is intentional. Due to the amount of strong starting pitching going today, I think the best way to compose lineups on most sites is to spend on SP, playing it safe there, and then filling out your hitting wither cheap to moderately priced value plays.
Catchers
Top Play
Matt Wieters (BAL) - For his career, Wieters hits much better from the right side of the plate, posting a .362 wOBA and slugging almost 80 points higher than he does from the left side of the plate (also slugs 60 points higher at home than on the road). This is good news if you want to use Wieters today as he draws the left handed Pedro Hernandez in Camden Yards. I honestly do not know much about Hernandez. He did make one MLB start last year in which he gave up 3 HR in just 4 IP, and given Wieters' splits, I'm willing to roll him out against Hernandez even though he's a relatively unknown commodity.
Value Plays
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - Doumit has a career .345 wOBA against RHP, is pretty cheap on a lot of sites, and this game has one of the highest totals of the day
Russell Martin (PIT) - Although Ryu only gave up 1 ER in his MLB debut, I did read some scouting reports that felt he looked very hittable. At the right price, I'd be willing to take a chance on Martin against him today, as Martin posted a superb .379 wOBA against LHP last year and a whopping .298 ISO.
John Jaso (OAK) - Jaso is not a huge upside play due to his lack of power but did post a .401 wOBA against RHP last season. Today he draws Lucas Harrell who struggles against LHB (.337 wOBA).
First Base
Strong Value Plays
Paul Konerko (CHW) - While Konerko is adequately priced on a couple of sites, he is underpriced on a few. Today Konerko goes up against Hisashi Iwakuma, who has given up 1.49 HR/9 in 66.2 career innings facing RHB. While that number may regress, today might not be that day as parkfactors.com has U.S. Cellular Field as the 2nd best hitting park in MLB, and Fangraphs has it as the easiest park for RHB to hit a HR. On top of this, consider that Konerko hits RHP really well, even better than LHP over the past couple of years. In 2011, Konerko posted a .391 wOBA against RHP, and last year he posted a .373 wOBA against RHP. Konerko has hit 33 HR at home in 521 at bats over the past two years.
Yonder Alonso (SD) - I think Alonso is underpriced on most sites in general because he has a very safe skill set (10% BB rate, 16.3% K rate, 23.7% LD rate in 2012), and because I expect a bunch of his 39 doubles from a year ago to translate into more HR. Today Alonso faces Jhoulys Chacin who has allowed a very high .344 wOBA to LHB since 2010. With Alonso underpriced, facing a pitcher who struggles against LHB, hitting in Coors rather than his home Park of Petco and hitting cleanup in a game with the highest total of the day (10), he is a very strong value play.
Second Base
Strong Value Plays
Mark Ellis (LAD) - Ellis is hitting second for the Dodgers who should score a handful of runs today facing Jeff Locke. Hopefully Ellis is one of those run scorers, and given his lineup spot and .381 wOBA against LHP last year (.377 OBP) it could very likely happen. I don't love a lot of the 2B options today, and Ellis provides me with a safe and cheap option on most sites.
Josh Rutledge (COL) - Rutledge is hitting second for the Rockies in Coors going up against Edinson Volquez (who is equally as bad against RHB as he is LHB). Given the likely high scoring environment of the game, Rutledge's expected spot in the order and that he did not show a negative platoon split against RHP last year (actually struck about half as much), he's a good value play at 2B on a day where I do not like a lot of options here. Please note that Rutledge is listed at SS on some sites.
Shortstop
If You Can Afford...
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) - Tulo has to be today's top SS play, salary aside. He is hitting cleanup for a heavily favored team in Coors in a game where the total is 10. For his career Tulo has a .395 wOBA at home, and today he faces Edinson Volquez who has allowed a .334 wOBA to RHB since 2010 - one of the worst marks of any SP throwing today. Coors certainly won't do Volquez any favors as he has struggled with a high HR/FB rate throughout his career (12%). Also, given Volquez's wildness (over 5 BB/9 in three straight seasons), there's a good chance that if he does give up a gopher ball today it will be of the multi-run variety.
High Upside, Relatively Cheap Play
JJ Hardy (BAL) - Hardy hits for a lot more power against LHP (.203 ISO) than he does against RHP (.157 ISO). Facing a lefty today, who gave up 3 HR in his only career start, in Camden Yards makes Hardy an acceptable salary cap relief play with upside.
Third Base
Top Value Play
Manny Machado (BAL) - Machado is really cheap on most sites and is hitting second for Baltimore in the game with the second highest run total (9) of the day. In his young career he has hit leftie much better than righties and also has hit better at home. Like I said in the Wieters blurb, I'm not overly familiar with the opposing pitcher (Pedro Hernandez), but he is probably one of the worst SP's throwing today. Given Machado's price, there is very little downside to taking him today. Note that on FanDuel, Machado is listed at SS which makes him an even stronger value play.
The Stud
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - I've seen Cabrera's price vary widely from site to site depending on how much they choose to weigh recent results. Heading into yesterday's game, Cabrera was off to somewhat of a slow start, and as a result his price has fallen on a couple of sites. If you play on one of those sites, don't hesitate to throw Cabrera out there despite the bad matchup. Cabrera hits all LHP as he has a career .409 wOBA against LHP. He has also handled Sabathia well throughout his career, going 10-26 with 2 doubles, 2 homers, and 5 walks against just 4 K's.
Outfield
Strong Value Plays
Matt Joyce (TB) - Get used to seeing left handed bats against Justin Masterson being listed as strong value plays. Of today's starting pitchers, Masterson's .345 wOBA allowed to LHB is the worst of any pitcher with at least 20 IP against LHB since 2010. Like Masterson, Joyce has some pretty extreme splits. While he has just a .278 wOBA against LHP, he has an extremely solid .364 wOBA against RHP with an .850 OPS. He is a strong value on the majority of daily sites today.
Potential Value Play
Justin Ruggiano (MIA) - I say potential value play because Ruggiano's price varies from site to site. On those that take into account splits and heavily weigh recent performance, there's a good chance he's overpriced. However, on the other sites Ruggiano is a fine value play. He is going up against Aaron Laffey whose .354 wOBA allowed to RHB is the worst of any SP in action today since 2010 with a minimum of 50 IP against RHB. This works well for Ruggiano who has shown a lot of power against LHP, hitting 9 HR in just 206 PA's and posting a .253 ISO. Also, keep in mind that Laffey is actually walking LHB at a higher rate (10.3%) than he is striking them out (10%), which makes Marlins' RHB, at least the ones with skills, much less riskier to achieve negative points than normal.
The Underpriced Stud
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) - I like Stanton for a lot of the same reasons as Ruggiano (Laffey's troubles against RHB, Stanton's massive power against LHP - .298 ISO). Unlike Ruggiano, though, I am targeting Stanton on sites that heavily weigh recent performance. Stanton has gotten off to a really cold start (.143 BA, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 RS), which has caused him to become underpriced on some sites. In fact, I even came across a site where he is cheaper than Ruggiano. This is the perfect time to play Stanton on the right sites - underpriced on a day when he has one of the best matchups across the league.
If You Can Afford...
Matt Kemp (LAD) - I wouldn't go too crazy (i.e. not stacking against) picking on Jeff Locke today as his 5.50 ERA last year was in a small sample size, and he actually had a 3.70 xFIP. With that said, he certainly did struggle against RHB allowing a .354 wOBA and a whopping 1.62 HR/9. Kemp has gotten off to a slow start and may be priced a little lower than he normally would, so he makes for a good play if you can afford it. Over his career, Kemp has compiled a .415 wOBA and .983 OPS against LHP which is pretty insane.
Starting Pitcher
The Safest Play
David Price (TB) - With so many elite SP options throwing today, I'm going with Price as my top play for a few reasons. For starters, the CLE-TB game has a total of 7, which is tied for the lowest over/under on the day. Secondly, at -200, the Rays' are the biggest favorites on the day. Thirdly, the Indians' ranked 27th in MLB last year with a .294 wOBA against LHP. They've made some changes to their lineup, but still were easily handled by the left handed Matt Moore on Friday, striking out 8 times in 6 innings while achieving just 2 hits and no runs. Fourthly, Price recorded a miniscule 1.81 ERA in 94.1 IP at home last year. Again, there are a lot of top flight options at SP today, I just think the evidence points to Price being the safest of the bunch.
The Best Values
Adam Wainwright (STL) - I think Wainwright is underpriced on most sites for a few reasons. First of all, he was a bit unlucky last season as his 3.94 ERA was well above both his FIP (3.10) and xFIP (3.23). Secondly, the only start that has affected Wainwright's pricing from this year was not a good one. Thirdly, I expect Wainwright to be a lot sharper this season now that he is over two years removed from TJS. The matchup today isn't amazing as Wainwright has to face Matt Cain, which reduces his chances at a win, and the Giants were middle of the pack in terms of wOBA against RHP last season. Wainwright does get to pitch in AT&T park, though, which according to parkfactors.com has been the most extreme pitcher's park in MLB over the last three seasons.
Brett Anderson (OAK) - Pretty much anyone against Houston is going to be a solid value play. They were dead last last season with a .271 wOBA against LHP, striking out 23% of the time. So far this year the Astros have an insane 41.8 K% as a team. In the daily fantasy world, strikeouts are king, and anyone against the Astros is going to have a nice amount of base points to work with as a result of their whiffing ways.
Again, there are a TON of viable SP plays today. The three I've written up just represent the guy I think is the safest and two other guys that are really safe for prices a bit less than the top tier guys. Really you can't go wrong playing any of these: Chris Sale, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain and Stephen Strasburg. Given the amount of acceptable plays out there at SP, I'd probably refrain from taking any type of risks with my pitching and try to get salary cap relief out of my hitters.
If You Are Stuck...
I like any RHB from the Marlins, and the Rockies-Padres game once again has the highest total of the day. The Orioles also project to be one of the highest scoring teams. If I'm going to play a "throwaway" to save cap space, I'm probably finding it somewhere amongst these four groups.
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