Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
I am writing up just the night games as my inclination is to only play the late games. We have had a lot of bad weather recently and that combined with a lack of lineup information has me hesitant to play an early lock game. There are 7 games at night, so that should be enough for there to be diversity.
Weather Note
In Jeopardy: Cubs-Rangers. Right now there just looks like there is no way this game is being played. Granted it is very early, but the forecast I am looking at right now calls for 100% chance of rain during the 3 hours the game is supposed to be played and almost equally as high of a chance in the surrounding hours. This is just another reason not to risk playing an early lock game as this is one of the three day games.
As always, monitor the weather throughout the day, but right now there is no other game with a greater than 30% chance of rain.
Catchers
Value Plays
Matt Wieters (BAL) - Yes, David Price is a really good pitcher but Wieters will be at home where he has an OPS 68 points higher than on the road. Also, Wieters has destroyed LHP the past two seasons with a .436 wOBA and insane 1.022 OPS. Those numbers and Wieters' deflated price tag on most sites has him has a strong value play despite the skill of the opposing pitcher.
Miguel Montero (ARZ) - While Hughes actually has been worse against RHB the past two seasons, Montero still is a solid value play. The game is in Yankee Stadium which everyone knows strongly enhances left handed power due to the short porch in right. Not coincidentally Hughes gave up a whopping 2.01 HR/9 at home last season. This matches up well for Montero who leads the Diamondbacks lineup with a .375 wOBA and .480 slugging percentage against RHP the past two seasons.
Boom or Bust GPP Play
Tyler Flowers (CWS) - Flowers homered yesterday, and I like him again today if he's priced near the minimum on the site you play at. I've seen him as the cheapest catcher on one site. While Flowers isn't that good overall and strikes out a ton, he's absolutely worth a play at the minimum price tag particularly in GPP's thanks to his power. He's facing R.A. Dickey who is very tough to hit when he's on, but is susceptible to the long ball when his knuckler is off. Also consider that the Rogers Centre is extremely favorable for right handed power.
By now Evan Gattis' price has corrected itself on most sites, but if it has not on yours, he has a very solid matchup today against the ineffective Jeff Locke who has given up 1.52 HR/9 to RHB in 47.1 IP.
First Base
Value Plays
Mike Napoli (BOS) - While Napoli may be priced a tad too high to be considered underpriced, he's certainly not overpriced on any sites. On this short slate night I actually don't like a lot of the 1B options, and Napoli is one of the guys I am most comfortable with. He has hit RHP better than LHP the past two seasons with an impressive .405 wOB. Perhaps more important is the .282 ISO as Napoli is hitting for a lot of power against RHP. Today he gets Zach McAllister, who like Napoli, actually has somewhat reverse splits and is worse against same handed hitting, which in this case is RHB. McAllister has yielded a .333 wOBA and 1.14 HR/9 to RHB.
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) - We've recommended Encarnacion in this space a few days in a row and it primarily has to do with his price and his good home splits (hit 23 HR in 75 games at home last year). Today he goes up against Chris Sale who is a great pitcher but as we saw last week can have his problems giving up the long ball to RHB (1.22 HR/9 to RHB). Meanwhile, Encarnacion has feasted on LHP since 2011 with a .398 wOBA and a huge .294 ISO that is even larger than Jose Bautista's over that timeframe.
Good GPP Play
Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ) - Goldschmidt's large splits and large price tag prevent me from listing him as a solid value play, but if you are looking for some upside in a large field tournament, he certainly fits the bill. Hughes allowed 2.90 HR/9 to RHB at home last season, and Goldschmidt certainly has the power to capitalize on this despite being much better against LHP.
Second Base
Value Plays
Kelly Johnson (TB) - Johnson hit second yesterday against a RHP, and if he does so again today in Camden Yards (hitter's park), he makes for a solid value play. While Miguel Gonzalez has just a 2.98 ERA against LHB (60.1 IP), his xFIP is 4.13 meaning Gonzalez has had some good fortune go his way which we would expect to regress. For example, he has allowed just a .239 BA to LHB despite giving up a 25.2 LD% and has allowed just .75 HR/9 despite a low GB rate of 34.4%. Johnson has been terrible the last couple of years, but he has at least held his own against RHP with a .321 wOBA.
Neil Walker (PIT) - Depending on how quickly the site you play on reacts to recent performance, Walker could still be undervalued. Today he goes up against Julio Teheran who is off to a really rocky start. In particular, Teheran has struggled against LHB. Although it is a small sample size, Teheran has just a 1.13 K/BB ratio against LHB allowing .433 wOBA and 2.55 HR/9. Walker himself is a MUCH better hitter from the left side of the plate, posting a .343 wOBA.
Depending on the site, I'll probably stick to one of these value plays. If you have room, Dustin Pedroia is the best 2B option but likely one of the most expensive ones.
Shortstop
Value Play
JJ Hardy (BAL) - This blurb is pretty much the Matt Wieters blurb all over again. Hardy faces a quality pitcher in David Price, but as we mentioned before Price is at least human against RHB with a 3.55 xFIP. There's not a lot to like at SS, so it might not be a bad idea to take Hardy's power in Camden Yards against a LHP. Hardy has a .346 wOBA that includes some power (.193 ISP) against LHP since 2011.
Super Cheap Play
Jayson Nix (NYY) - Nix is priced at the bottom of the barrel on some sites and has potential to do damage today. While his likely spot in the lineup (9th) diminishes his value, Nix has been okay against LHP the past two years (144 PA's) posting a .332 wOBA and .176 ISO. It's not special but good enough to make him a worthy cheap play given his price and matchup. He faces Patrick Corbin who has allowed a .334 wOBA and 1.32 HR/9 to RHB. Note that Nix may be listed at 3B.
If you don't like either of these plays, Asdrubal Cabrera is really underpriced, although the reason for that is he is struggling mightily. Also, if you are really discouraged by the SS position today, you could always go for Yunel Escobar who is near minimum pricing on multiple sites. Miguel Gonzalez's stellar 2012 campaign was heavily luck driven (82.6 LOB%, .260 BABIP). So while the Rays do struggle against RHP, I don't think it's crazy to think they could get to Gonzalez today who has walked nearly as many as he has struck out in his first two starts.
Third Base
Value Play
Will Middlebrooks (BOS) - Middlebrooks has cooled down as of late, not homering and recording just 1 RBI since his 3 HR performance on April 7th. Look for Middlebrooks (.232 ISO against RHP) to start turning his power back on beginning today. Meanwhile, the cold streak has reduced his price making him a strong value play.
Super Cheap Play
Pedro Alvarez (PIT) - Alvarez has his flaws. Many, many flaws. However, he did hit 30 HR last year with 24 of them coming against RHP and is priced extremely cheaply on many sites. Today he goes up against Julio Teheran who as I mentioned in Neil Walker's blurb has had his struggles with LHP, albeit in a small sample size.
Other options include Evan Longoria who is simply underpriced, but be careful about how many TB guys you take as they have had a difficult time with RHP so far this year. The Atlanta 3B (Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco) could make for good values with Jeff Locke struggling against both LHB and RHB. I would also keep my eye on Eric Chavez. On Tuesday versus a RHP Chavez started and batted 6th. He is pretty cheap on most sites, and any cheap bats with any semblance of power are good risk reward plays in Yankee Stadium against the HR prone Hughes.
Outfield
Value Plays
BJ Upton (ATL) - Upton is off to a slow start with just a .238 wOBA in his first 12 games; we should expect that number to be nearly 90 points higher. As a result, he is moderately priced, and he is hitting leadoff against Jeff Locke who may be the worst starting pitcher in action today. With Upton always a 20/40 candidate and hitting leadoff in a positive matchup, it's tough not to play him on a short slate night given his price.
Vernon Wells (NYY) - Wells was hitting second in the lineup against a LHP yesterday, and I am hoping that's where he is again today. Opposing pitcher Patrick Corbin has allowed 1.32 HR/9 for his career to RHB. While Wells has had his overall offensive troubles the past two years, he still has a good power stroke against southpaws. Consider that Wells hit 24 HR in 511 at bats against LHP between 2011 and 2012.
Gerardo Parra (ARZ) - Parra has handled RHP well over his career (.289/.342/.423), and he should be hitting leadoff today for the Diamondbacks, making him likely to score a run in one of the games I expect to be high scoring.
Jay Bruce (CIN) - There's no doubt that Jose Fernandez has been, well, amazing. However, today he is pitching in a much better hitter's park (Cincinnati) than he did in his first two starts (Miami, New York Mets). While I don't expect Fernandez to blow up, he's going to make a mistake or two sooner or late. With Bruce's price down after a slow start, it makes sense to gamble on Fernandez making that mistake to him. Bruce posted a whopping 1.040 OPS at home against RHP last season, hitting 16 homers in just 208 at bats. That's a near 50 HR pace.
Jason Heyward (ATL) - As I said in Upton's blurb, Locke may be the worst SP in action today. This might make Heyward a good value play on those sites that take into account splits and have reduced Heyward's price as a result of the L/L matchup. However, Locke in a limited sample hasn't been good against lefties, and I still think Heyward should provide solid value in the middle of Atlanta's batting order. On top of that, Locke has never gone more than 6 IP in his career and has quite a few starts with less than 5 IP, meaning that Heyward could still easily find 2-3 at bats against relief pitching in this game.
If you can afford it, Justin Upton has to be the top hitting play of the day. He is locked in right now, and for his career he has a .904 OPS against LHP. Meanwhile in 47.1 IP opposing pitcher Jeff Locke has given up 1.52 HR/9 to RHB. There's a ton of upside here if you can squeeze Upton in. Matt Joyce is also really cheap for going against a RHP, but similar to Asdrubal Cabrera he's that cheap because he's been that bad. Still, he's a solid option today offering upside at a low price.
Starting Pitcher
Value Plays
Jose Fernandez (MIA) - While Fernandez in Cinci is not a matchup I really like, sites have been slow to adjust his salary. So, while he is priced like a bottom end starter he remains a value play almost regardless of matchup. Plus, it should be pointed out that Fernandez has been flat out dominant, not lucky, in his first two starts, posting a 31.7K% and 60% GB rate - an extremely lethal combination.
Tony Cingrani (CIN) - Cingrani is getting called up to make his first ever MLB start and like Fernandez, Cingrani's price is too low on many sites as he is an unknown commodity. I will probably risk Cingrani in his debut on sites where you start multiple pitchers. He is facing the putrid Marlins offense, and Cingrani's eye popping K rates from the minors (26 K's in 14.1 IP this year, 54.2 K%) give me hope that even if he struggles and doesn't last long, he will record enough punch outs to hit his value.
RA Dickey (TOR) - Dickey is off to a slow start (1-2, 5.82 ERA) so he is pretty moderately priced. I like him today against a heavily right handed White Sox lineup that has some guys who should be platoon bats only playing against LHP in it (Viciedo, Keppinger off the top of my head). Since 2010 Dickey has allowed RHB to post just a .287 wOBA, garnering a ton of ground balls (51.3% GB rate) and a solid K/BB ratio (3.78).
With the short slate night, I recommend focusing on these value starting pitchers. If I am playing a top SP it is going to be Cole Hamels who is underpriced due to his rocky start. Even he does not have a great matchup, though, against the deep STL lineup. I think I'd rather save my money for hitting but may work Hamels in. There aren't a ton of great plays tonight, so I'll want to be able to get in the top hitters I'm most confident in such as Mike Napoli and Justin Upton.
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Clyde Colbert
Apr 18, 13 at 06:09 AM
So if you don't list a player then is it recommeded that you stay away from them?
For example today - with your value pitching I end up with extra funds after using your suggested picks. So now I'm wondering how do I spend the rest.