Philadelphia Phillies
Roy Halladay, RHP PHI For fantasy owners who drafted Halladay expecting a bounce-back season, the right-hander's spring results have been disheartening to say the least. In 12 Grapefruit League innings, Halladay has allowed 13 hits, seven walks and nine earned runs. His fastball sat at 87-89 mph last Saturday in a minor league start, but he couldn't command it and had 11 of 18 batters reach base against him. Halladay is coming off a season in which he walked more than two batters per nine innings for the first time since 2004, and he also saw his strand rate dip by nine percentage points to 69.1 percent. He had a FIP of 3.69 last season, and that seems like his ERA ceiling in 2013.
Ben Revere, OF PHI Revere's high-contact rate (92.6 percent in 2012) and speed make him a strong No. 2 hitter, but Jayson Stark of ESPN told Mike Missanelli on 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel is planning on hitting Revere eighth. Manuel's reasoning is that Revere can get on base, steal second and have the pitcher bunt him over to third. However, there are more cons than pros for fantasy owners if Revere bats in the eight-hole. He'll have to show more plate discipline, as he won't see nearly as many pitches in the zone as he does as the No. 2 hitter. He'll score fewer runs with the pitcher batting behind him. And he won't get many green lights if he reaches base with two outs because if he gets thrown out, the lineup won't turn over and the pitcher will have to lead off the next inning.
Chase Utley, 2B PHI Utley finally has discovered his stroke after a slow start to Grapefruit League play. Over his last 11 games, Utley has 12 hits in 39 at-bats with four homers, two doubles and a 4/4 K/BB. He has raised his spring average from .167 to .270 in that span. Utley hit .256 last season, but that was due in part to a .261 BABIP and a .215 average against left-handers. Utley also hit .187 against lefties in 2011, but prior to that season had always hit them pretty well and actually owns a career average of .270 against them.
Atlanta Braves
Paul Maholm, LHP ATL Maholm walked six batters and allowed five earned over his first 8.1 innings this spring, but he has been impressive since then with an unblemished ERA and a 14/4 K/BB across 17 innings. Maholm had a 4.00 FIP against a 3.67 ERA last season, and he'll have to repeat his 75.7 percent strand rate to come close to that ERA again. Dipping below 70 percent like he did in 2007, 2009 and 2010 would be disastrous for his ERA.
Jonny Venters, LHP ATL Venters was the rare setup man with fantasy value over his first two big league seasons when he threw 171 innings and had a 1.89 ERA and 189 strikeouts. However, he appears to have been overworked. The lefty reliever allowed seven earned runs in 12.1 innings in September 2011 and then dealt with arm injuries last season and finished with just 58.2 innings and a 1.52 WHIP. Now, he has a left elbow sprain and will likely start the season on the DL.
Around the league
Adam Wainwright, RHP STL Cashing in on a five-year, $97.5 million contract Wednesday was Wainwright, who will be entering into his second full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery. In his first season back, the right-hander had a 3.94 ERA, but his FIP was 3.10; the difference of 0.85 was the third-best in all of baseball. Wainwright had a .315 BABIP and a strand rate that was 7.4 percentage points below his career average. Otherwise, his K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 were all in line with his career averages.
Shaun Marcum, RHP NYN Marcum has been suffering from discomfort in his shoulder and neck and has been expected to start the season on the disabled list, but the Mets have a plan in place for the righty to avoid the DL. He will stay back in Florida and throw a minor league game before returning to start the fifth or sixth game of the season. However, the team might just be delaying the inevitable. Marcum unfortunately has dealt with right elbow and shoulder issues in each of the last two springs and threw just 124 innings in 2012, so another DL stint or two seems likely. With a career ERA of 3.76 and a strand rate of 76.3 percent, Marcum is worth owning in all leagues, but don't pay too much for him.
Bryce Harper, OF WAS Harper's inflamed left thumb is the only thing that can slow him down. Harper has reached base in 10 consecutive plate appearances and owns a .476 average in 63 at-bats this spring. The 20-year-old has three homers and nine extra-base hits overall and is slugging .730. He also has swiped five bases. The Nationals outfielder has legitimate potential to finish with 30 homers, 30 steals, 100 RBIs and 100 runs this season. He's also a lock to improve on his 20.1 percent strikeout rate, which will increase his batting average. In his final 141 plate appearances last season, Harper hit .341 with 10 homers and just 26 strikeouts, an 18.4 percent strikeout rate.
Ricky Romero, LHP TOR After walking 10 batters and allowing 17 hits in 13 innings this spring, Romero was demoted to High-A Dunedin to work out his issues. Those issues started last season, when his walk rate skyrocketed from 3.20 BB/9 to 5.22 BB/9 and his K/9 slipped from 7.12 to 6.17. Romero had a 2.92 ERA just two seasons ago, but that was due to a .242 BABIP and a 79.2 percent strand rate. He had a 4.20 FIP that season.
J.A. Happ, LHP TOR Happ will assume the fifth spot in Toronto's rotation and has some upside after posting an 8.92 K/9 (7.71 K/9 in 2011) and a 3.48 BB/9 (4.78 BB/9 in 2011). Happ had some bad luck with a .315 BABIP (career .286 BABIP) and a strand rate that was 3.5 percentage points below his career number. Happ's FIP was 4.01, and he actually struck out 10.26 batters per nine innings in 40.1 frames after joining Toronto from the Houston Astros.
Chris Perez, RHP CLE Perez missed most of spring training with a shoulder injury but returned Tuesday to throw a scoreless frame and appears set to start the season on time. That means Vinnie Pestano will have to wait a little longer to close for Cleveland. Pestano is actually the more valuable reliever for the Indians, as he threw 70 innings and struck out 76 last season to Perez' 57.2 and 59. Batters put the ball in play against Perez 26 percent of the time, compared to 24 percent against Pestano, and Perez had a swing-and-miss percentage of 15, lower than Pestano's 19 percent. But saves are what fantasy owners care about, and Perez had 39 of those to Pestano's two.
Erasmo Ramirez, RHP SEA Ramirez will begin the season in the minors despite pitching to a 3.86 ERA and 10/2 K/BB in 14 innings this spring compared to Blake Beavan's 6.52. Beavan hasn't walked a batter this spring, but he has allowed 29 hits and five homers in 19.2 innings. That is similar to what he has done in his two-year career. In 249.1 big league innings, Beavan has walked just 39 batters, but he has allowed 274 hits, 36 homers and struck out 109 while posting a 4.37 ERA and 4.70 FIP. Ramirez is just 22 years old and had a 3.36 ERA and 48/12 K/BB in 59 innings last season in addition to going 6-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 58/18 K/BB at Triple-A. Don't be surprised if he is up with Seattle before May.
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP TB Hellickson is an interesting case, as sabermetrics don't agree with his success at all. He has been last in baseball in ERA minus FIP in each of the last two seasons with -1.50 in 2012 and -1.49 in 2011. In 402.1 major league innings, he has posted mediocre strikeout and walk rates (6.13 K/9, 3.11 BB/9) and a BABIP of .244. The biggest reasons Hellickson has had success - and with a 3.06 career ERA, he has been highly successful - is his dominance with men on base. His strand rate of 82.7 percent led baseball last season, and before you go predicting regression in 2013, check out his strand rate in 2011: 82 percent, second in baseball. He was at 80 percent in limited action in 2010, 79.7 percent at Triple-A in 2010, and above 80 percent in 152 Double-A innings.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF BOS While Ellsbury didn't end up requiring an MRI on his injured right heel, the injury should serve as a reminder that he has missed significant time in two of the last three seasons. In 74 games last year, he didn't display the same type of power that he did in 2011 despite having a similar flyball rate. He had a HR/FB of 4.7 percent, which was 12 percentage points lower than 2011. The shoulder injury he suffered in April likely sapped his power somewhat, but Ellsbury had a 4.6 percent HR/FB in 624 at-bats in 2009 and a 7.0 HR/FB in 554 at-bats in 2008. Right now, his 16.7 percent HR/FB in 2011 is the outlier.
Vance Worley, RHP MIN The sorry state of the Twins' pitching staff means that Worley will take the ball on Opening Day. At first glance, he doesn't appear to have much fantasy relevance after posting a 4.20 ERA and 1.51 WHIP last season for the Phillies, but keep in mind he opted to pitch with a bone chip in his right elbow instead of having surgery. He actually owned a 2.92 ERA and 66/25 K/BB over his first 12 starts (74 IP), but he recorded a 5.80 ERA and had a .401 BABIP over his final 11 (59 IP). Worley had a FIP of 3.85, and he will move to pitcher-friendly Target Field this season after putting up a 5.20 ERA at Citizens Bank Park in 2012.
