Atlanta Braves
Third base update Since Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson have both performed well this spring, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez has decided to go into the season with a platoon, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The problem is that both players hit better against right-handed pitching. Francisco has just 63 at-bats in his career against lefties, but he is hitting .190 with 24 strikeouts, one walk and a .446 OPS. Johnson isn't as terrible; he has a career line of .255/.294/.372 against lefties in 333 at-bats, so he will probably take the hit and play against left-handers while Francisco gets to take on righties.
Tim Hudson, RHP ATL After missing most of April 2012 following back surgery, Hudson hit the 16-win mark for the third straight season. He'll have about five more starts in 2013 if he can stay healthy, and will kick off the season as Atlanta's Opening Day starter. Hudson's ERA has been consistently lower than his FIP for his entire career since his sinkerball has allowed him to hold batters to a .279 BABIP. He has a fly-ball rate of 23.2 percent for his career and posted a HR/FB below 9.0 percent in each of the last two seasons. Barring some horrible luck, he's a lock for another season of 15 wins and an ERA around 3.60.
Mike Minor, LHP ATL Minor gave up 88 hits, 38 walks and 18 homers in his first 85.2 innings last season and had a 6.20 ERA in that span. But he was quietly one of the best starters in baseball over the final three months - he went 7-4 with a 2.21 ERA over 93.2 innings over his final 15 starts. During that stretch, he walked just 18 batters and limited opponents to 63 hits and eight homers. However, the first-half version of Minor has returned this spring as the lefty has walked 12 batters and allowed 23 hits in 18 innings. There are also some regression concerns with Minor since he had a .252 BABIP, a number that dipped to .223 during his second-half hot streak.
Freddie Freeman, 1B ATL Freeman was one of 15 players last season to have both 90 runs and 90 RBIs. He raised his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate from 2011 to 2012 and saw both a jump in flyball percentage and HR/FB. The 23-year-old is leading the majors this spring with seven homers and should reach the 30/100 plateaus for the first time in his career.
Philadelphia Phillies
Domonic Brown, OF PHI Brown is second in the majors this spring with six round-trippers, and he has posted a .382 batting average and 8/6 K/BB in 68 at-bats. The former top prospect has only hit 25 homers in 898 career at-bats combined between Triple-A and the majors, but he has dealt with nagging injuries and never received a lengthy chance to be a starting outfielder for the big league club. Based on the power he has displayed this spring, it certainly wouldn't be a surprise if he blasted 25-30 in a full season.
Darin Ruf, OF PHI Ruf's struggles in the outfield went viral after he allowed a Freddie Freeman fly ball to bounce out of his glove and over the fence for a home run this week. Ruf, a converted first baseman, hasn't done enough with the bat to distract from his defensive issues, though he did blast a walk-off homer Friday shortly before being demoted to Triple-A. We'll see if his power - 38 homers in 489 at-bats at Double-A last season - translates over an extended stay at the highest minor league level. His demotion means Delmon Young will be the everyday right fielder when he returns in late April.
National League
Jeff Samardzija, RHP CHN Samardzija went 9-13 with a 3.81 ERA and 180/56 K/BB over 174.2 innings last season, and his final ERA was actually dragged down by two June starts in which he allowed 17 earned runs in 8.0 innings. If you remove those starts, Samardzija would have had a 3.08 ERA in 166.2 innings and we would be talking about 2012 as more of a breakout season for the right-hander. Don't overlook him in 2013.
Dee Gordon, SS LAD Hanley Ramirez' thumb injury has opened up Los Angeles' shortstop job for the next two months, but Dodgers manager Don Mattingly is leaning towards starting Luis Cruz there while Gordon goes to Triple-A. Gordon struck out in 18.8 percent of his at-bats last season but he also had a .281 BABIP. That's especially low for a player with top-notch speed that hits nearly 60 percent groundballs. Gordon also improved his walk rate from 3.0 percent in 2011 to 6.1 percent last season and has drawn eight free passes in 38 plate appearances this spring. If he can work his way back to the majors quickly, fantasy owners should see an improvement at the plate to go with his usual stolen base production. Gordon has swiped 56 bases in 143 career games despite getting on base at a .299 clip.
Yasiel Puig, OF LAD The 22-year-old Cuban defector is tied for first in the majors with a .521 spring average in 48 at-bats, but he will likely start the season in the minors since the team's three outfield spots are filled by Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Still, if Crawford suffers a setback, Puig could find himself with a starting job and the Los Angeles Times suggests he could even fill Hanley Ramirez' No. 5 spot in the batting order. Puig also has three homers and four steals this spring and is someone to watch.
Mike Leake, RHP CIN The Reds officially named Aroldis Chapman as their closer Friday, meaning Leake will fill the fifth spot in the team's starting five. After three big league seasons, fantasy owners should know not to use Leake at home, where he has a 4.66 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 261 career innings, compared to 3.74 and 1.27 in 224 road innings. The right-hander has a 1.64 GB/FB in his career, but when he gives up flyballs the baseball tends to leave the park, as evidenced by his 14.6 percent HR/FB.
American League
Michael Morse, 1B SEA A strained lat muscle kept Morse out for all of April and May in 2012, and he experienced an 80-point decline in slugging percentage from 2011 due to an increase from 44 to 55.3 in groundball percentage. It's a good sign that Morse has six homers in 39 spring at-bats. He led the Grapefruit League in home runs with nine in 2011 before belting 31 during the regular season. Moving from Nationals Park, which had an average ranking in home run factor last season, to Safeco Field, which ranked 29th in baseball in that same category, would have been a problem in past seasons. But keep in mind the Mariners have moved the fences in from 341 to 337 feet in left field and 390 to 378 feet in the left-center field power alley.
Scott Diamond, RHP MIN Diamond is slightly behind in his recovery from surgery to remove a bone chip in his left elbow and will begin the season on the 15-day disabled list. However, he is expected to be ready to make his debut on April 12, according to the Star Tribune. Diamond relied on his stellar control (1.61 BB/9) and a 2.09 GB/FB to post a 3.54 ERA last season. Since he induces a lot of balls in play, he'll have to rely on good fortune more than a strikeout pitcher, but he limits the damage by keeping his walks down and the ball in the park. One factor that could influence his ERA more than anything else will be how he pitches with men on base. He had a solid 73.3 strand rate last season and if that slips, he could see his ERA increase to the high threes.
Jon Lester, LHP BOS Lester has allowed six hits and two runs and has a 16/4 K/BB in 20 innings this spring. That's exactly what fantasy owners wanted to see after Lester put up a career-worst 4.82 ERA in 2012. From 2011 to 2012, the lefty's K/9 went from 8.55 to 7.28 and his line-drive rate increased from 15.9 to 22 percent. Plus, his HR/9 in 2012 was above 1.0 for the first time since 2007. He still had an average fastball velocity of 92 mph, not far off from 92.6 mph in 2011, so his decline likely had more to do with bad location. Lester's biggest issue was pitching with men on base, as he stranded just 67.6 percent of baserunners, fourth-worst in baseball among qualified pitchers. Prior to 2012, Lester had recorded strand rates of 76, 77.4, 76.9, 74.5 and 78.1 from 2007-11.
Justin Verlander, RHP DET Here's the list of hitters Verlander has allowed homers to over his last two spring starts: Jordany Valdespin, Brandon Hicks, Brandon Laird, Carlos Corporan and Matt Dominguez. He has allowed more earned runs this spring than he did in 2011 and 2012 combined. But with a FIP below 3.00 in each of the last four seasons and an ERA of 2.52 over the last two, I think we can safely ignore a spring hiccup from Verlander.
Scott Kazmir, LHP CLE Indians manager Terry Francona announced this week that the team's final rotation spot will go to either Kazmir or Carlos Carrasco. With a spotless ERA and 8/1 K/BB in 8.0 innings this spring, Kazmir appears to be the frontrunner. The lefty hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2011, and he threw just 1.2 innings and allowed five earned runs that season. In 299 innings since 2009, Kazmir has a 5.54 ERA and 210/141 K/BB. He's probably worth a flier in deeper leagues to see if he can recapture his 2005-08 form - 3.51 ERA and 9.68 K/9 - but that seems like a major long shot. Plus, prospect Trevor Bauer and Carrasco will be waiting in the wings at the first sign of trouble.
