Angels Health Update #1: Tommy Hanson
Tightness in his right triceps forced him to leave before the start of the 4th inning in Wednesday's spring training game. Please excuse me when I'm not too encouraged by this, even after Tommy Hanson says he's "One-hundred percent" fine, will be ready for his next scheduled start, and sees no reason why he shouldn't be good to go for his regular season opener. Hanson's high-effort delivery and struggles with health have been well documented. His K/BB ratio was just barely above the 2/1 threshold for league average starting pitchers in 2012, his 4.48 ERA and 4.24 xFIP were career worst's, and his 1.5 MPH decline in avg. fastball velocity from 2011 to 2012 had already raised some red-flags.
Angels Health Update #2: The Great Albert Pujols
Albert Pujols' Health: Sticking with our health theme today, let's look at the great Albert Pujols, who has seen his BB% decline by 8.6%, his K% increase by 2.2%, and his ISO decrease by 100 points since 2009. So even before his slow recovery from off-season knee surgery in his right-knee and his recent bout with plantar fasciitis in his left foot, I was already a bit bearish on him for 2013. There are some legitimate concerns in Angels' camp that he won't be ready for the start of the season, and even if he is, that he won't be close to 100% by then. The good news is this is Albert Pujols, who established such an insanely high baseline that his numbers are still elite despite declining skills. The bad news is that you still have to spend a first round pick to get him, something that I strongly advise against.
Pirates Back-End-Of-The-Rotation Update
For now, it looks as though the primary competition for the Pirates' fifth starter is between Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson. McPherson got rocked during Wednesday's start against the Braves, giving up 10 hits and 8 ERs in 4 2/3 innings of work brining his spring ERA to 8.31 vs. Jeff Locke's 3.12. While Locke's minor league track record and solid K/BB rate suggest he could be a sneaky add in extremely deep leagues, all of this to me suggests that Gerrit Cole will be up sooner rather than later. The top prospect, who was recently one of six cut from the roster, posted solid spring numbers against quality opponents (according to Baseball Reference, 9.2 on a scale from 1-10, so it wasn't just against fellow-minor leaguers). He could be this year's Matt Harvey.
Pirates Back-End-Of-The-Pen Update
Jason Grilli is coming off of a stellar 2012, where he boasted an insane 36.9% K rate (25% is solid for a closer). This was driven in part by his 1.2 MPH gain in avg. fastball velocity, which is extremely rare for a 36 year old reliever. There's no doubt he has the closer job, and nothing in his spring performance screams caution. However, I advise all Grilli owners to handcuff with Mark Melancon, who finished the final month and a half of 2012 with a .90 ERA, and a 13/1 KK/BB ratio. He looks sharper that Grilli so far in spring training and is carrying over the confidence he regained towards the end of last year. Grilli has a relatively long leash, but Melancon has closing experience and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gain fantasy relevance in 2013.
Around The League
Andrelton Simmons (SS-ATL): My love for The Dre has been well documented this spring. Fresh off of his stellar performance in the WBC where he went 10 for 30 with 2 HRs, 6 RBI, and 10 R's, The Dre hit two more bombs yesterday. I was bullish on him heading into the season after his impressive 2012 debut. With the leadoff spot his for the taking, I think we're going to see the speed he flashed in the minor leagues. Combine this with his burgeoning power, I could see upwards of 10 HRs, 20 SBs, and 90+ runs. He could be the steal of your draft.
Hanley Ramirez (3B/SS-LAD). HanRam's declining skills during the past three years have made me hesitant to take him early in drafts. He's seen a 1.3% decline in BB% and 4.3% rise in his K% since 2009, while his OPS+ has dropped 36 points to 112 (100 is league average). Now, word out of Dodgers camp is Hanley may miss the first two months of the season after injuring his right thumb during the WBC championship game. MRI results are expected later today, so keep an eye on the situation. While he could only miss a few weeks, the Dodgers appear pessimistic and are expecting to be without him until June. Draft accordingly.
Zack Greinke (SP-LAD): Another potential early round pick in drafts, Greinke has given fantasy owners a scare with talk of elbow inflammation. However, Greinke reportedly pitched a pain-free four-inning minor league start on Wednesday (43 pitches) and is optimistic he could still be ready for opening day. The last time he was in the NL, Greinke posted a stellar 28.1% K rate to go along with a 2.56 xFIP. If this was just a spring-training scare and nothing more, which all indications suggest is the case, moving Greinke back up your boards is justified.
David Wright (3B-NYM): Wright is still on the mend after straining the left-side of his rib-cage and isn't close to returning to the lineup, according to manager Terry Collins. It now appears the best-case scenario for Wright is opening day, and if history is any indication, such injuries tend to take around a month to heal. I'd draft expecting Wright to miss the first 2-3 weeks. However, coming off a rebound 2012 where had boasted an OPS+ of 143 (his highest since 2008) and after hitting .438 in the WBC, I wouldn't knock him down your board too far.
Erasmo Ramirez (SP-SEA): All indications from Mariners camp is that the 22-year old is going to earn a spot at the back-end of the mariners rotation. His most recent outing of 6 innings, 8 hits, 2 ERs, 5 Ks, and 0 BBs added on to an impressive spring where he has only walked 2 batters in 12+ innings of work against quality opponents (8.6 according to Baseball Reference). Ramirez had a 22% k rate and a 4.3% BB rate as a starter last year with a .98 whip and a 3.52 xFIP. He's a sneak play this year late in drafts.
Sergio Santos (RP-TOR): With Casey Janssen slowly working his way back from offseason surgery, Santos has looked pretty solid so far this spring. While he's only pitched 5 innings and given up 3 ERs, he's also struck out 5 against 1 walk and appears to have life to his fastball again. He suffered a minor triceps injury earlier in the month, but appears to be fine and is reporting no lingering effects. Santos posted a 35.4% K rate in 2011 with 30 saves for the White Sox. If he pitches well early in April, the job could be his to run with.
Wade Davis (SP-KC): Davis pitched 4+ innings yesterday in his return to the mound from shoulder soreness that crept up during the first week of March. He gave up 2 hits, 1 ER, 4 BBs, and 2 K's and reported no issues with the shoulder. While I was bullish on Davis going into the season, projecting him to carrying over some of the gains he showed in the bullpen last year (most notably, the 30.6% K% and 93.7 MPH avg. fastball!), moving from the pen to the rotation can be a tricky proposition. I still like Davis to build from last year and to improve upon his last year as a starter, but I'm watching the transition closely.
Jackie Bradley (OF-BOS): With David Ortiz on the shelf, the Red Sox are considered leaving Bradley on the opening day roster. He's hitting a robust .439 this spring, backed by 8 BB's to 5 K's in 51 plate appearances (opponent quality score of 8.1, as per Baseball Reference). Bradley broke out last year, reaching AA and posting a triple slash line of .315/.430/.482 with 9 HR's and 24 SBs in 128 games. He's the real deal and could prove to be a gem for deep-leaguers.
Stephen Drew (SS-BOS): Drew hasn't played in two weeks and is off to see a concussion specialist. While he's seen an improvement in his symptoms, there appear to be some lingering effects, and manager John Farrell indicated that Drew is likely to open the season on the DL. Drew posted his fourth consecutive season with a below league average OPS (OPS+ of 97) after his breakout 2010 (OPS+ 113). Those drafters waiting on SS to draft Drew late should adjust accordingly. And deep leaguers may want to look at Jose Iglesias, who is expected to fill in until Drew returns.
Chad Billingsley (SP-LAD): Billingsley had a pain-free bullpen season after testing his bruised right finger that he injured during bunting drills last year. All systems appear to be a go and he will pitch in a minor league game on Saturday. Billingsley made some sneaky gains last year, decreasing his BB% by 3% and increasing his K% by 2%, and his xFIP of 3.84 suggests that his year wasn't a fluke.
Pablo Sandoval (3B-SF): The Kung Fu Panda is out with a sore right elbow, and tests confirm that it's nerve inflammation. This is on top of a bone spur in the elbow as well. As of today, there is no timetable for his return. The Panda is such a risk/reward type player, and his injury history and performance inconsistencies (OPS+ of 144, 99, 155, and 124 and games played of 153, 152, 117, 108 the past four seasons) are leading me to stay away unless he falls significantly in drafts.
