Lucas Harrell - SP Astros - Lucas Harrell says he would like to upgrade his curveball for the 2013 season, hoping it will help him work deeper into games. He considers it his 4th best pitch but he'd like it to a bigger part of his arsenal and he spent some time polishing it this offseason. Harrell allowed 1 run on 3 hits, a walk, and 4 Ks on Tuesday against the Nats.
Lucas was a pleasant surprise last season posting 11 wins with a 3.76/1.36 slash. Harrell throws a ton of GBs (57%) and that helps spackle over his borderline K (6.5/9) rate and more ominous BB (3.6/9) rate. His move to the AL this year shaves his margin for error even slimmer, and he's going to need to upgrade his swing and miss capabilities. His .289 BABIP in 2012 is probably better than he can repeat this season as is his GB%. It's unwise to pay for 2012, and he's likely to be a bit overvalued in most formats. Still, if he survives to the late, roster-filling portion of your draft, he could present some value at the right price.
Eric Bedard - SP Astros - 34-year-old Eric Bedard has been battling a strained glute but the Astros are hopeful of getting him back on the mound soon.
Bedard is a non-roster invitee, coming off a disappointing season with the Bucs in 2012 (7-14, 5.01, 1.47). It wasn't quite as bad as it seems. His .314 BABIP is a little elevated, and his career-low 66.5% LOB percentage made it's contribution as well.
Still his control slipped, as did his velocity, and a string of injuries has left us with a string of 4 seasons of less than 130 IP and 24 starts. His declining velocity and his inconsistent health suppresses his value, and his 5.01 ERA will scare off a lot of owners.
He's going to be better this year if he can get and stay healthy, but it's hard to say how much better. If there were a prop bet here between him posting a 4.50 ERA or better and Bedard not pitching 130 innings, I'd bet on the latter. Stay away.
Will Middlebrooks - 3B Red Sox - Some will look upon Will's debut with the Red Sox in 2012 and prorate his 15 homers in 75 games to a potential 30 HR season.
A big and strong right-handed pull hitter, Will brings to mind Jason Bay (the good Jason Bay) and to be sure he has the potential to post a 30-homer season or two at Fenway, but I just don't think 2013 is the year.
Will still has some work to do at the plate, as evidenced by his zone control last season (24.5% K rate, 4.5% BB walk rate, 29.3% chase rate). There was also more than a whiff of good fortune in his HR total. His 21.4% HR/FB rate, 390 ft average per homer and 103 mph batted ball speed are all less than supportive of the 30-homer season we all are looking for.
Coupled with his still-developing discipline, there's always the potential for periods of struggle once the league asks him to make an adjustment this season after finding a consistent hole.
There's still value to be had with Will if you get him at the right price, but there will be a lot of people thinking about those 30 homers, and he will probably be overvalued in many leagues. It's important to be disciplined yourself and value Middlebrooks reasonably. You also want to slot him as a CI if possible, if he's your starting 3B you are playing catchup in most formats.
John Lackey - SP Red Sox - Having given up 4 earned runs in his first 3 IP over two appearances this spring, John Lackey acquitted himself well against Puerto Rico in Fort Myers on Tuesday night, throwing 3 scoreless innings, giving up just 3 hits while striking out 2. 31 of his 45 pitches were strikes and he mixed in a newly minted cutter into the mix after it showed well in his pre game warmup.
He's throwing all four pitches well, and for strikes, and he's throwing without pain. What does that mean for his value in 2013?
He's a wild card. I could try and pretend like I know but I don't. The fact is that we don't know what he was before he missed last year with TJS, so it's hard to project.
His K rate, BB rate, WHIP, and OBA were in three year declines. In 2011 His swinging strike %, and GB rate were at, or worse than, his three-year lows. Still he maintained his velocity and his chase rate has actually improved. Then there's his hatred of Fenway and the overlay of the general toxicity of the 2011 Red Sox to somehow factor in.
There are too many variables to reconcile effectively here, but his stuff so far indicates that perhaps he should be on some list somewhere that you pull out at the end of the draft when you are willing to take a total flier and with little to no risk. Stay tuned, lets see how his next few innings pan out ...
Jackie Bradley Jr. - OF Red Sox Jackie Bradley Jr.has created a little buzz with his hot start in grapefruit league action. John Farrell is already on record as thinking that Bradley will start the year in AAA Pawtucket, and despite his recent walk back on closing the door completely, the Red Sox roster as it's currently constituted says that makes sense. He should be on your radar however.
Bradley is the current heir apparent to Jacoby Ellsbury in CF regardless of whether Ellsbury's contract year ends his tenure in Boston at the trade deadline or in the offseason, or even if Ellsbury stays in Boston. If Ellsbury does get dealt however, Bradley probably presents some 2013 value.
Bradley presents quite a bit like Jacoby in some ways, and he may have more power and better zone control, without the elite speed and baserunning skills that Ellsbury possesses. Bradley takes a walk, and will probably maintain enough on-base ability to justify a leadoff slot. That will in turn present running opportunities which he has the skills to take advantage of.
He has plus speed but hasn't stolen a ton of bases in the minors. He has a 30-SB ceiling at the major league level but the organization will have to let him run and teach him how to realize that potential. As a major league he'll steal bases, supply runs, and he doesn't have top end power potential (but could probably supply mid teens in HRs) but he can slash, so he'll show some extra value in leagues that score XBH or SLG%.
This will be the last spring that he's off anyone's screen, if he still is, so in keeper leagues that allow minor leaguers, or room to stash minor leaguers, Bradley might be good to have in your pocket. It appears a pretty good bet he'll be a factor in 2014 if not the last two months of 2013.
Roy Halladay - SP Phillies - Doc went 4 scoreless innings for the Phillies against the Nationals, and he actually brought a little grit to the table, throwing behind Tyler Moore as a warning shot after Stephen Strasburg hit Chase Utley the inning before. That's a good sign. I like to think he's feeling his oats
We are concerned about his velocity drop of late, even accounting for injury last year, and what we are also paying attention to is the fact that his breaking stuff wasn't effective last year either. Some of that is probably due to the shoulder strain, but it may not be the entire story. It's one of the things we'll be watching this year.
All that being said, even last year, despite his finally showing some wear and skill decline, he pitched a little better than his results indicate. Watch his velocity as we go along this spring. He's probably in line for something of a bounce back season, but it would be foolish to pay for the performance level we saw from Halladay from 2008-2011.
If your league is totally sour on him though, feel free to bargain shop, just don't slot him as a cornerstone of your staff.
Mark Teixeira - 1B Yankees - A good reason to wait as long as possible to have your league's draft ... Mark has been diagnosed with a strained right wrist, and it looks to be one hell of a strain. He's expected to be shut down completely for a month, and his total estimated return time at this point would be 8-10 weeks. Mark your calendars for mid-to-late May.
At 33, Mark has all of a sudden become a health risk, and his ability to hit for average is in a 4-year free fall.To this point though he still shows position-viable power, but in 2013 terms you just lost at least a month and a half of the season, he's lost his Spring Training along with the chance at any kind of a normal ramp up this season, and we are looking at a seemingly severe injury to a key physical component of his power game. Not good.
Johan Santana - SP Mets - The Mets say they expect Santana to be back on the mound in a ST game in about a week. Rostering Johan is like driving with your gas gauge needle below empty. You probably have a few miles left but your ability to move the car can change without notice.
Despite what we saw last year, particularly after he was stretched too far in his mid-season no hitter, Johan still has some skills. His change is still excellent and his slider is still respectable. And while his control slipped last year, for the most part, with his offspeed stuff, his command is still good in long stretches, and he can still get hitters to swing and miss (11.6% last year).
You can probably still get a sub 4.00 ERA here, but you don't know how many innings of that you are going to get, and he's simply not a consistent play anymore.
Derek Lowe - SP Rangers - Derek Lowe signed a deal with the Rangers on Wednesday. He'd provide and a bridge for the Rangers while Colby Lewis and Martin Perez heal and then move to the bullpen. The report says that while it is a minor league deal, Lowe has been guaranteed a roster spot. He's not worth drafting as a starter, if only because he's not likely to spend the season in the rotation, but if your league scores holds, Derek could eventually become a source.
Jeff Samardzija - SP Cubs - Pay no attention to the torching of Jeff Samardzija in yesterday's B game. This is one of those spring things where a pitcher sees some live action to work on some things ... that and it was a 10:00am start that he thought was a 10:30 start, so he was completely out of whack by the time he made the mound. Basically Jeff was mostly throwing to stay on schedule.
Last year's breakout for Spellcheck looks completely solid. His chase rates, and contact rates were excellent (12.1% SwStr, 84% contact rate inside the zone and 74% outside) and he threw a solid number of ground balls in addition to his strong control and elite K rate.
In fact you could make the argument he was a bit unlucky in HR/FB (12.8%) and BABIP, and there was actually some ceiling in his results. We have him just outside the top 20, but he has the potential to join the club
Zack Greinke - SP Dodgers - Zack was scheduled to pitch against Mexico on Wednesday but was scratched with the flu. No worries here, he's fine.
Zack would have been a top 10 starter almost no matter where he pitches but the move to LA can only help. The NL will help his K totals, and a few less HRs could dip his ERA closer to 3.00, and the Dodgers should provide another win or two.
Zack is also usually one of the lowest-valued top tier starters (although Cliff Lee may give him a run this year). As starters go, in most leagues, Zack is a pretty solid bet at a relatively lower value.
Kendrys Morales - 1B Mariners - Morales hit a two-run homer yesterday against the Brewers and he's up to .353 on the spring.
Many will be put off by his move to Safeco but the park isn't much tougher for left-handed hitting than the one he came from. His second half suggests he was still on the comeback trail a bit when when the 2012 season opened which indicates a full, healthy season will produce an uptick in the numbers and Kendrys might provided some delta on his cost in many leagues.
Alex Gordon - OF Royals - The Royals collected 15 hits against Arizona on Wednesday, three of them from Alex Gordon, one of which was a Grand Slam.
Alex presents a lot of sleeper potential and his overall 2012 numbers were suppressed by a tough first half. We like his XBH rate and we are looking for him to start lifting the ball more. All of that combined with a rebound in his HR/FB rate (down over 4% to 8.5% last year) could easily get him back into the 20s in HRs.
More importantly for keeper league owners, you can almost feel the tremors of a breakout. Gordon still looks like he has another power gear, and he may come cheaply enough in your league, or be around in the right draft position, where you can roll the dice and score big.
Kyle Lohse - SP Free Agent - The Rangers signing of Derek Lowe probably stuck a fork in the possibility that Kyle would sign with the Rangers. In fact a source in the Rangers organization told MLB.com that Loshe is off the board.
You are forgiven is at this point if you are questioning whether Scott Boras has overplayed Loshe's hand. It's hard to imagine a team suddenly believing in March that they screwed up with their current rotation to the extent that they now want to spend the kind of money that Boras is asking and give up the draft compensation. Of course all of that could change with the first key injury to starter.
Explore your options in your league regarding your ability to stash free agents. Lohse is likely to make a contribution somewhere at some point this season, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen in Texas.
Patrick Corbin - SP Diamondbacks - Corbin was roughed up the Royals to the tune of 4 runs on three hits and a walk, one of the hits being the above-mentioned Alex Gordon Grand Slam. It's a bump in the road after a strong start to the spring which had to this point at least made him a favorite for the 5th starter slot.
Corbin emerged as a darkhorse contributor in 2012 while everyone's attention was focused on Bauer and Skaggs. He lives and dies on his GB rate because he's not very difficult to hit (8.7% SwStr, 23.3% LD%).
Corbin has three legitimate pitches, none of which are overpowering but he throws them with command and control. A lower release point allows him to work down and draws those ground balls, but as is the case with most pitchers who allow a lot of contact, there are a lot of ways things can go wrong, not the least of which is his predilection to give up homers (1.18 HR/9 last year).
There's too much risk here, it's hard to imagine a situation in all but the deepest leagues where you can't scare up a better draft option.
