Notes on the last day before real games start...
Jason Frasor- TEX- RP- Frasor looks to be the prime setup man for the Rangers, He has been very tough against righties in his career, so could have some value in leagues where holds are counted. Over the past couple of seasons, though, Frasor has given up long balls more frequently (13 HRs in 103.2 IP in 2011-12.) Pitching in Texas could increase that tendency.
David Murphy- TEX- OF- Murphy will finally get a full time job for Texas. Last season was the most productive of his major league career, primarily due to highs in games and PAs. Murphy managed to hit .347 against southpaws, but with a .433 BABIP against him the odds are slim he will repeat that. Still, with a projection of 16 homers, 11 steals and a .287 average Murphy may be able to get you better production than other outfielders who are higher profile.
Leonys Martin- OF- TEX- A factor that might eventually get Martin the bulk f playing time in the Texas center field platoon is speed. Martin had it on display last night at the Alamodome in an exhibition against the Padres. Martin had an infield hit in his evening as well as steals of second and third. In addition to that, his movement on the base baths contributed to a balk by Padres' pitcher Huston Street. Both Martin and Craig Gentry have had outstanding springs but as the season progresses the lefthanded hitting Martin should see more playing time and will contribute in the steal column as a result of his work with Texas coach Gary Pettis.
Freddy Garcia- BAL- P- Garcia signed a minor league contract with the Orioles after being released on Monday by the Padres. He is projected to be a member of the Norfolk rotation but his chances of moving up to Baltimore are slim. Although Garcia had a career-low FB% of 34.8% with the Yankees last season his HR/FB ratio was 15.8%, tied for second highest in his career. A fly ball pitcher like Garcia is not a good thing in Camden Yards.
Jake Arrieta- BAL- P- Arrieta has won a spot in the Baltimore rotation, largely on his 1.56 ERA in 17.1 IP this spring. He just turned 27 and may be a sleeper candidate. He continued to improve his K/9 and BB/9 ratios last season. Arrieta's whopping 6.20 ERA had a large luck component as demonstrated by a 4.05 FIP. Be careful about pitching him at home in the early going, where he gave up 12 of his 16 homers allowed despite only pitching 6.2 more innings at Camden Yards. On the plus side such extreme splits were not evident in his first two seasons and make his 3.65 xFIP more attractive. If he reverts to keeping the ball in the park more then Arrieta could be a steal.
Kyle Lohse- MIL- P- Lohse didn't officially sign his new contract until yesterday, a day after his spring debut of 3.2 IP. He isn't likely to see his first regular season action with his new team until either next Friday or Saturday. With his very late start don't expect a complete game out of him right off the bat.
Yuniesky Betancourt- MIL- SS- Like fellow SS Alex Gonzalez, Betancourt is likely to see action at 1B, which has been a snake bit position for the Brewers this spring. Betancourt will start the season as the backup first baseman and should have some crazy eligibility depending on your league. Last year he saw at least 8 games each at 2B and 3B. He only played 1 game at SS, although that is his usual position. Add in 1B and Betancourt will possibly have eligibility at any infield spot. Unfortunately he isn't likely to have that many PAs and his batting average has been in decline since he hit .289 in each of his full time seasons. If he gets enough playing time there is enough pop in his bat to produce double digit homers, but the playing time is a big "if."
Buster Posey- SF- C- Posey signed an 8-year contract extension with the Giants yesterday. This locks the catcher in for his last 3 arbitration years and first five free agent seasons. It reportedly includes a complete no trade clause. At 26, Posey is heading into the prime of his career. This contract establishes some certainty for Posey, the Giants and his owners in fantasy league. Fantistics is projecting him to have a similar season to 2012, when he went .336/24/103. Due to a .368BABIP Posey's projected season is .309/23/94. If he was in a friendlier park he might push 30 homers. With a 7/17 home/road split in long balls last year, though, his power numbers will be less than they might be somewhere else. Posey is in the elite of players at his position.
Justin Verlander- DET- P- Verlander signed a 5-year contract extension with the Tigers. Combined with the remaining two years of his current contract, Verlander will be guaranteed $180 million over the next 7 years, which makes him the highest paid pitcher in history. Verlander shoulders a heavy workload for the Tigers, but his pitch counts have been managed well during his career. In his rookie season of 2006 he threw only 3 starts of more than 110 pitches at age 23. The following year he threw 7 high pitch games. In 2008 he tossed 13. Once Verlander passed the age of 25 and his physical development was likely set, only then did his workload jump with 24 high pitch games. Expect the 30-year-old Verlander to maintain high durability and performance.
Mark Teixeira- NYY- 1B- Teixeira gave mixed signals about his return from a torn tendon sheath I his wrist. On the one hand he said that he is still hoping to come back in the earlier part of the 8-10 weeks the injury is supposed to take to heal. That would make a target of May 1. On the other hand, Teixeira said that he hopes to be swinging a bat at the 6-week mark of recovery. However, if he still can't do that after 10 weeks he might be looking at "other options" which is code for season-ending surgery. There are still big question marks about Teixeira's availability this season, much less how productive he will be if he returns.
David Aardsma- NYY- P- The man who knocked Hank Aaron out of first place in the alphabetical list of major leaguers is looking for a job. The Yankees designated Aardsma for assignment, tossing in the towel on their efforts to utilize him after Tommy John surgery in 2011. Aardsma registered over 30 saves in 2009 and 2010 but doesn't seem able to hold a closer role now. He did post a 3.52 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 7 Ks in 7.2 IP of Grapefruit League work so it is possible another team will pick him up for a setup role.
Cody Ross- ARI- OF- Ross will start the season on the DL. However, this will be a retroactive move since he hasn't had any game action since March 3. So, he may not be out for a full 15 days if his leg strain continues to heal.
David Wright- NYM- 3B- Wright played in his first game action since straining his left intercostal earlier this month. He should play today as well and appears ready to go for Opening Day.
Edwin Encarnacion- TOR- 1B- Encarnacion's sprained finger, suffered at the World Baseball Classic, has fully healed. He has been back in the lineup the past two games and is ready to go for the regular season. With a likely 30+ homers coming off his bat this year after a breakout 2012, Encarnacion will benefit from not starting the year on the DL.
Logan Ondrusek- CIN- RP- Ondrusek is likely one of the two Reds' relievers on the outside of a 5-man competition for 3 bullpen slots. Despite having a respectable 3.45 ERA in his first 3 years of major league work Ondrusek has two problems going against him. First is logistical. Three of the other four candidates (Jose Arrendondo, Manny Parra and Alfredo Simon) can't be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. The other problem for Ondrusek is performance. The other candidate, J. J. Hoover, has a 1.80 ERA and 19 Ks in 10 IP this spring. Ondrusek has a 7.59 ERA and 6 Ks in 10.2 IP. He had 13 holds last year and 14 the year before but isn't likely to collect them at the start of this season.
Daric Barton- OAK- 1B- The A's got tired of waiting for Barton to develop into a quality major league first baseman. They designated him for assignment. Barton's Batting EYE fell from .83 in 2011 to .69 last season so there really wasn't anything to offset his dearth of power (27 homers in 1901 major league PAs) from first base. There is a possibility he may end up in Milwaukee, at least on a temporary basis. The Brewers currently have two shortstops slated to handle first base until injured players heal.
