The Yasiel Puig Phenomenon
Through 55 at-bats as of Monday, Puig leading the league in hitting at .527/.509/.855. He's shown contact ability, power, speed, and athleticism that has been compared to the great Bo Jackson. I got to see Puig play live last week, and in the final game, all he did was hit a booming homer to left, notch a couple singles, a stolen base, and then a triple to the deepest part of the ballpark. With Carl Crawford healthy, Puig doesn't have a spot in the outfield, but at some point, look for him to force the issue. The Dodgers could deal a guy like Ethier, or even think outside the box and try Puig at third base. If that sounds far-fetched, Puig recently said he's even be comfortable playing shortstop for the time being. Puig has yet to draw a walk this spring, but again, a .509 OBP. I also saw Puig work pitches for double-digit pitch counts recently, so I'm not worried about any plate discipline issues. The Dodgers are reportedly looking to find a spot for Puig on the Opening Day roster, but look for him to open in the minors and force the issue at some point this season.
Dodgers #5 starter
Here are the ERAs of the candidates:
Billingsley - 7.04. He's still the favorite in my eyes given his youth, contract, and upside.
Capuano - 7.20, but a 14:3 K:BB in 15 innings. He probably gets traded.
Harang - 8.10 with a whopping 24 hits allowed in just 13.1 innings. The first offer involving a bag of balls gets Harang in a trade.
Lilly - 9.45, but has tossed just 6.2 innings. Still a candidate, but not worth drafting.
Dbacks #5 starter
This looks to be Pat Corbin's job to lose. Tyler Skaggs has more upside, but he'll open in Triple-A to attempt to polish his game. Randall Delgado has a 6.88 ERA, and while there is upside there, Corbin has a 3.66 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 19.2 innings. He doesn't overpower guys, but it appears he'll get the fist crack at sticking in the Arizona rotation. Corbin doesn't overpower guys, but his 90-93 mph fastball is adequate enough, and his 2.1 BB/9 for Arizona last year speaks to his excellent control. Corbin isn't a guy who's going to win fantasy leagues, but if he can do a better job keeping the ball down in the zone (particularly at home), lowering his 1.2 HR/9 should help his overall results immensely.
Dbacks outfield
With Cody Ross nursing a leg injury and Adam Eaton sidelined for a while, Gerardo Parra takes center stage. Parra should play most every day, and though he's viewed somewhat as a platoon guy, Parra did post a .790 OPS versus same-sided left-handed pitching in 2011, so I'd be tempted to discount last year's poor (.631 OPS, .10 EYE) versus southpaws as a product of small sample size. Parra could be good for 10 homers and 15 steals with an average in the .270s if he's able to get enough playing time. Parra has just a .38 EYE for his career, but he's been a touch better the last couple years, and at age 25, further growth is possible.
Padres second base job
With the injury to Chase Headley, it appears both Jedd Gyorko and Logan Forsythe will make the Opening Day roster. Most significantly, the Padres appear to be set on developing Gyorko as a second baseman, so instead of having HIM sub for Headley by playing his natural position, the Padres will slide Forsythe over to third base. Gyorko is batting .286/.308/.508 this spring with a 13:2 K:BB. He's fallen off a bit since a hot start, but Gyorko also posted a .920 OPS with 30 homers in the minors last year, so he's a potential fantasy sleeper given his 2B qualification.
Scott Sizemore (2B-OAK) - It's sounding more and more like the A's will start Hiroyuko Nakajima in the minors to start the season. With Jemile Weeks already having been sent down, that means Sizemore and Lowrie are likely set to open the season in the middle of the diamond. Sizemore is batting .244/.379/.311 with just two XBH's (11 total hits) and a 15:10 K:BB in 45 at-bats this spring. Sizemore of course missed last year with an ACL injury, but he also has a career 11.5% BB% and he's shown some pop with 14 homers in 511 career at-bats. He's looking like a nice NL-only play.
Kyle Lohse (SP-MIL) - Lohse has inked a surprising three-year $33 million deal to remain in the National League Central, this time with the Brewers. Lohse had a career year in 2012, going 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA, 6.1 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9. He's a bit older at age 34, but Lohse is comfortable in the NL and he should be in line for another solid season or two before that contract becomes unmovable. Lohse really showed improvement in his slider last year, and given his recent consistency, expect another solid season in 2013, perhaps with a small amount of regression off of 2012.
Jesus Montero (C-SEA) - Given the Yankee-related prospect hype attached to Montero over the years, it's tough to call him a sleeper, but after a disappointing 2012, he may be that exactly. Montero went 3-for-3 with a grand slam and six RBI Monday against the Reds, bring his slash line to .405/.450/.730 this spring. Montero's 5.2% BB% last spring was the biggest disappointment last year, as he had been in the 8-10% range in the minor leagues. Given Montero will be 23 all year, I'm not too concerned that the walk rate will continue to be subpar. Montero was 221 points of OPS better versus LHP than RHP last year, so if that's a gap he can narrow, a breakout season is very viable.
Tommy Hanson (SP-LAA) - The Josh Hamilton signing has deservedly made the most waves in the Anaheim camp, but it's the performance of guys like Hanson, Joe Blanton, and Jason Vargas that are going to key the Angels' season. Hanson allowed three runs in six innings Monday, but he fanned nine hitters in what was a minor league game, so these stats don't officially "count". Hanson entered the game with an 8.25 ERA in 12 innings, so despite the strikeouts, it was a minor league game and he's been relatively unimpressive for most of the spring. Hanson saw his velocity drop, strikeout rate drop, and walk rate rise last year, so he's a bit of a question mark despite his former status as a top prospect. In addition, Hanson has been dealing with a sore triceps muscle, so this is a lottery ticket at best.
Brandon Maurer (SP-SEA) - Guys like Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen get far more fanfare in the Seattle organization, but Maurer is perhaps on the verge of being named to the team's rotation. He tossed five scoreless innings against the Reds Monday, striking out seven and lowering his ERA to a solid 0.90. Maurer has a 22:6 K:BB in 20 innings this spring. Thought he's just 22 and has never pitched above Double-A, Maurer throws as high as the mid-90s, and he's 6'6" coming off being named the Double-A Southern League pitcher of the year in 2012. He has a legitimate chance at the job and looks to be a big-time AL-only sleeper.
Wade Davis (SP-KC) - Davis held the Dodgers to one earned run over five innings Monday night to leave him with a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings so far this spring. Davis sports a 6:7 K:BB with the elite ERA, so it's probably best to not get too excited. Davis is set to be the team's #4 starter after posting an 11.1 K/9 last year in relief. He's not likely to pitch in the 92-96 mph range as a starter as he did in relief last year, but Davis' upside in AL-only leagues is fairly appealing.
Chris Getz (2B-KC) - Don't get too excited, but the 29 year-old Getz has been named the team's starting second baseman. Getz is batting .396 with a homer and three stolen bases this spring to go with a 6:5 K:BB. This is more than likely a case of a guy getting hot at the right time, but look for reality to set in at some point. In 1,309 career major league PA's, Gets is batting just .257/.314/.316 with just two career home runs. Getz however has swiped 71 bases in 86 opportunities. Former #4 overall pick Christian Colon is probably the Royals' second baseman of the future, but Colon has yet to taste Triple-A and he's been a bit of a professional disappointment. Look for Getz to be a decent play in deeper leagues, but don't expect a lot of power.
Homer Bailey (SP-CIN) - Bailey struggled for the second straight start Monday, allowing eight earned runs over 3.1 innings against the mighty Mariners. Bailey has an 8.64 ERA for the spring, and in his laste 7.2 innings, he's allowing a whopping 14 runs (12 earned). At least he's fanned 18 over 16.2 innings, but after a breakout 2012, are you really comfortable buying Bailey stock this season? I tend to give Bailey the benefit of the doubt after last year, but after a 5.16 ERA at home (2.32 on the road) last year, Bailey hopefully is able to tame his jitters at home in 2012. His G/F is an okay 1.3, but given how the ball travels at home and given the likely mediocre OF defense the Reds plan on sporting, Bailey is going to need to be at the top of his game to finish with a sub-4.00 ERA. He's been a frustrating fantasy guy over the years. I'm not sure that changes much in 2013.
Zack Greinke (SP-LAD) - Greinke returned to the rotation for the first time since March 1, allowing five runs over three innings against the Royals Monday. Greinke walked the final three hitters of his outing while striking out two hitters overall. I did watch the game, and Greinke's stuff looked excellent, but his location did not. That's probably understandable given the off time, so don't hesitate to great Greinke the way you treated him prior to the elbow injury. I would understand if you exercised caution, but I still expect him to be an elite #2 to Clayton Kershaw's #1. Greinke should have no problem, barring elbow issues, of posting an ERA in the low 3's with around 200 strikeouts.
Matt Moore (SP-TB) - The Matt Moore hype was big enough in one of my league in the recent past to the point where I was able to trade him straight up for none other than Stephen Strasburg. I actually hesitated but ultimately clearer thought prevailed. Moore still has a bright future, but he walked five hitters in just 4.2 innings. He has a 4.67 ERA in 17.1 innings, but the 13 walks are a bit of a concern given last year's 4.1 BB/9. Moore had a 2.7 BB/9 during his 2011 minor league time, so I'm not too concerned about the sporadic control he's exhibited in his major league career, but it may take a bit longer than we hoped for Moore to reach his true ceiling.
