Indians' No. 5 Starter: Finding Value with Scott Kazmir, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer - The three-man race to name a fifth starter is down to two in Cleveland as the Tribe announced late last week that they are sending Trevor Bauer to AAA to begin the season, opening the door for either Carlos Carrasco or Scott Kazmir to be the No. 5 starter to open 2013. In terms of fantasy value, Bauer still clearly has the most upside of this trio and should be targeted as an in-season pickup once he gets called back into the majors. In 82 innings at AAA in 2012, Bauer struck out 10.65 batters per game and owned a 2.85 ERA. He's still just 22-years old and has shown an incredible ability to miss bats throughout his minor league career. One final note on Bauer: he changed his mechanics this spring to take strain off his legs and improve his ability to throw strikes. It will be interesting to see how these changes affect his performance in AAA. The bottom line is that the right hander should see action in the Tribe's rotation this season and could make an impact on fantasy teams in all league formats.
As for Carlos Carrasco, he last pitched in the majors in 2011, tossing 124 innings, striking out six batters per game and owning a 4.62 ERA and 4.07 xFIP. He ended up getting Tommy John surgery that season and is just now making his return. Prior to the injury, Carrasco was considered a decent prospect with the upside of a mid-rotation starter. He had performed well with the Tribe in 44 innings during the 2010 season, striking out nearly eight batters per game and posting a 3.42 xFIP and 3.83 ERA. If he does win the No. 5 starter job, Carrasco may have to miss his first turn in the rotation because he hasn't yet served a six-game suspension from beaning Billy Butler in 2011. View Carrasco as a back-end fantasy starter in 2013.
Finally, this next paragraph is one I did not expect to write a month ago. Kazmir has pitched well enough in camp to be the frontrunner at this point for the last rotation spot. The lefty has regained his fastball velocity as well as the break on his slider, and he's been a favorite of manager Terry Francona all spring. Kazmir hasn't been fantasy relevant since 2008, so temper your expectations if he does win the job. That said, Kazmir is still just 29-years old and if he has a couple good outings, or you have an extra roster spot now, he's worth a flier just to see if the lefty can be a back-end starter for your team this season. Prior to his implosion in 2009, Kazmir always missed bats and provided good strikeout numbers to his fantasy owners. Francona and general manager Chris Antonelli may make a decision on the fifth starter spot as soon as today.
Indians' First Base/DH: Mark Reynolds, a Three True Outcomes Hero - If you have not seen Mark Reynolds' homer on Friday, stop what you're doing and watch it. It went over the freakin' scoreboard. That clip illustrates Reynolds' power - he's smacked 28, 44, 32, 37 and 23 HRs during the past five seasons. He's also shown an ability to take a base as evidenced by his career 12% walk rate. And, as you know, Reynolds also strikes out a lot - to the tune of a 33% career whiff rate. With that type of consistency, it's safe to say fantasy managers and the Tribe know what they're getting. However, there are a few reasons to believe Reynolds may be a bit better in 2013 than he was the past couple seasons. That's because in 2012, his walk rate improved, his strikeout rate dropped under 30% for the first time in his career and he upped his LD rate to 20% (it was 13% the previous two seasons). Reynolds also experienced a drop in power as his ISO fell from .262 to .208 and his HR/FB rate moved from 22% to 18%. All told, Reynolds should see regular ABs and if he is able to maintain or improve his contact and walk stats from 2012 while also regressing to his career average power numbers, we could see a very solid 2013 out of the former Diamondback and Oriole. Keep Reynolds on your radar for an early-season pickup if he starts out strong.
Cardinals' Starting Shortstop: It's Pete Kozma Time! - With Rafael Furcal out for the season, somebody has to play shortstop for the Cardinals in 2013 and that somebody is Pete Kozma. Kozma filled in for Furcal at the end of last season and hit surprisingly well, owning a .333/.383/.569 slash line with a .236 ISO in 26 games. Those are incredible numbers, and also numbers Kozma had never posted prior to last season with the major league club. Instead, Kozma has been a pretty poor hitter in the minors, recording a .236/.308/.344 slash line during his minor league career. So, despite the great 2012 performance, I am not expecting Kozma to be fantasy relevant in 2013. He's never shown consistent power in the minors, hasn't hit for average, doesn't steal bases and isn't especially prone to take a walk. Despite initial success against major league pitching, Kozma has little upside and isn't a great play, even in deep NL-only leagues.
Cardinals' Bullpen: With Jason Motte Injured, Target Mitchell Boggs - Jason Motte has been shut down indefinitely from pitching and is getting his elbow examined meaning the Cardinals will put Mitchell Boggs in charge of closer's duties for the foreseeable future. Boggs has saved four games during his major league career, all during the 2011 season, but his peripherals point toward a reliever who should be decent, not dominating, in the 9th inning. During the past three seasons as a reliever, Boggs has posted ERAs of 3.61, 3.56 and 2.21 although his xFIP marks have been higher at 4.02, 3.66 and 3.68. Boggs doesn't miss bats in the same way Motte does (7.12 K/9, 20% K% in 2012), but instead relies on ground balls to get outs (52% career GB%). His K/BB rates are also trending in the right direction, improving from 1.93 in 2010 to 2.29 in 2011 to 2.76 last season. All said, Boggs should be a good source of saves, but not much else. He has long-term potential if Motte can't return to the mound any time soon.
Reds' Corner Outfield: Can Ryan Ludwick Repeat his 2012 Performance? - After hitting just 13 HRs and batting .237 for the Padres in 2011, Ryan Ludwick came over to the Reds and smacked 26 bombs to go along with a .275 batting average and .531 SLG% last season. The then 33-year old resembled his 2008 self when he hit 37 HRs for the Cardinals with a .591 SLG%. Looking toward 2013, however, it seems unlikely Ludwick will repeat his 2012 performance. His .256 ISO was 53 points above his career-norm and 129 points over his 2011 mark, while his SLG% was inflated by 65 points above his career average. Ludwick also posted an 18% HR/FB rate, which was his highest mark since 2008 and 5% above his career average. He also didn't show a good EYE (0.43). Despite hitting well both on the road and at home, it seems like a stretch to think that Ludwick, at 34-years old, can maintain his vast power improvements from 2012 into 2013.
Reds' Rotation: What to Expect from Homer Bailey? - Homer Bailey finally put it all together in 2012, logging 208 innings and owning a 3.68 ERA to go along with 168 strikeouts. He posted a 3.23 K/BB, improved his GB% by 5% and was worth almost three wins to the Reds. As we look toward 2013, Bailey can be an effective starter in deep leagues, especially if you platoon him. On the road last season, Bailey was really good, recording a 2.83 FIP, limiting HRs to just 0.90 per game and tallying a 21% K%. However, the right hander struggled at Great American, yielding a 5.22 FIP and 1.90 HRs per game while owning a K% of just 17%. Clearly, Bailey should be a solid fantasy SP on the road this season, but you'll want to avoid him, if possible, at home. In terms of upside, Bailey has posted a swinging strike rate of 9.3% and 9.4% over the past two seasons, so there's a chance he starts missing more bats and striking out a few more batters in the year ahead. Otherwise, until he pitches for a team with a less HR-friendly home park, Bailey is going to be limited to an overall 3.75-3.90 ERA, 160-170 strikeout pitcher. That's still a useful pitcher in most league formats.
Around the league...
Derek Jeter - Derek Jeter was scratched from starting in a minor league game on Sunday due to soreness in his surgically repaired ankle and now the Yankees are likely to put the shortstop on the DL to start the season. To ensure they have the DL option, the Yankees won't play Jeter in another major league spring training game. If Jeter does go on the DL, he can be activated as early as April 6. At 38, and coming off major surgery, Jeter represents a high risk play in all league formats in 2013. Yes, he hit 15 HRs and batted .316 in 2012, but expecting him to come close to repeating such an incredible performance is asking quite a lot. Nobody, even Derek Jeter, can be good forever and when you take into account age and his ankle injury, he's simply not a good bet.
Jeff Karstens - Bad news for Jeff Karsten fans. The right hander was scratched from his start on Sunday due to shoulder discomfort, which means he's unlikely to win the final rotation spot in Pittsburgh. In 2011, Karstens owned a 3.38 ERA in 162 innings and, last season, he pitched 90 innings and posted decent enough numbers for deeper leagues. He recorded a 3.97 ERA, 3.32 FIP and 4.40 K/BB rate. The problem is that Karstens can't stay healthy. The Pirates will now turn to choosing amongst Jeff Locke, Chris Leroux, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeanmar Gomez or Kyle McPherson for the final spot. None of those guys represent roster-worthy players in any league format. If Karstens gets back into the rotation at some point this season, he's playable in deep NL-only and mixed leagues.
Hyun-Jin Ryu - On Saturday, Dodgers' manager Don Mattingly basically confirmed that Hyun-Jin Ryu had secured a spot in the starting rotation after the lefty tossed seven innings, struck out five and retired 17 of the last 18 batters he faced against the White Sox. The decision to put Ryu in the rotation comes as no surprise as Los Angeles didn't pay $36 million over six seasons for Ryu to pitch in middle relief. The most likely scenario is that Ryu starts the Dodgers' second game of the season against the Giants with Chad Billingsley either beginning the season on the DL with a finger blister, being the No. 5 starter out of the gate or starting the year out of the bullpen until the Dodgers decide they need a fifth starter. Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how Ryu transitions to facing major league hitters. He struck out 210 in 182 innings with a 2.66 ERA in Korean professional ball in 2012.
Julio Teheran - Julio Teheran pitched another gem over the weekend, tossing six hitless innings against the Astros while striking out 10 and walking three. Given, the Astros' lineup on Saturday was pretty horrible, but you can't argue with Teheran's overall spring results which include a 1.04 ERA, nine walks, 35 strikeouts and a 0.62 WHIP in 26 innings. In 2011 at AAA, he posted a 2.55 ERA and 7.59 K/9 before imploding with a 5.08 ERA and 6.66 K/9 mark in AAA last season. Despite a disappointing 2012 due to mechanical changes to his delivery, Teheran is going to be part of the Braves' rotation and should make an impact for fantasy team's in most league formats.
Asdrubal Cabrera - The Indians' announced on Sunday that Asdrubal Cabrera was scratched from starting after he tweaked his back during BP. Manager Terry Francona said he'll give Cabrera Monday off as well. I'm expecting the Tribe's shortstop to put up numbers somewhere in between his 2011 and 2012 seasons. In 2011, he hit 25 HRs, stole 17 bases, owned a .187 ISO and finished with a .273/.332/.460 slash line. Last season, Cabrera hit 16 HRs, stole nine bases and posted a .270/.338/.423 slash line. From what I'm seeing, he's being underrated in drafts and auctions and should be a very solid play at a tough-to-fill position.
David Wright - David Wright took batting practice on Sunday and reported feeling no pain in his side, a good sign for the Mets' captain. Sunday marked the first time Wright had hit since being shut down during the World Baseball Classic. MLB.com reported that Wright was still on track for Opening Day, although that seems a bit aggressive. Considering what Wright means to the Mets, they will be conservative in bringing him back after he was diagnosed with a strained intercostal muscle. In drafts, Wright is dropping to the third round which seems like too much of a discount. Don't be scared off by this temporary injury and feel confident taking Wright as you planned to before the injury occurred.
Adam Dunn - The White Sox announced over the weekend that the Big Donkey will hit cleanup in 2013 with Alex Rios moving to the No. 3 spot in the lineup. Dunn batted third in 2012, hitting 41 HRs, driving in 96 and batting .204/.333/.468. The move to cleanup may present a few more RBI opportunities but won't significantly change Dunn's value. Dunn owned a surprisingly good 22% LD rate in 2012 but his BABIP was just .246. If he can repeat a 20% LD rate in 2013, I expect his BABIP to positively regress and, consequently, his .204 batting average to improve into the .220 range. At 33-years old, there's no reason to think Dunn can again approach the 35-40 HR range while scoring 85 runs and driving in 90+.
Vernon Wells - You know the Yankees are desperate when they trade for Vernon Wells in 2013. That's exactly what happened on Sunday as the Angels shipped Wells to New York while the Yankees agreed to pay a small amount of the outfielder's bloated contract. With Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira starting the season on the DL, New York will slot Wells into its starting outfield. Obviously, Wells' value goes up with this move since he was a backup in Anaheim. However, there still isn't much value. Wells hit .230 with a .173 ISO and 11 HRs in 262 plate appearances in 2012. He's owned just a 12% LD rate the past two seasons and his OPS with the Angels was a meager .666. If the Yankees get their full roster back from injury, Wells likely moves back into a platoon role. There's just not much to like here.
Jon Garland - The Rockies were close to signing Jon Garland on Sunday, with the deal all set besides a pending physical later today. The 33-year old right hander hasn't pitched in the majors since 2011. He's been dealing with shoulder issues and had shoulder surgery that ended his 2012 season before it started. Clearly, Colorado is giving Garland a shot thanks to the pitcher's excellent ground ball rates. For his career, Garland owns a 1.31 GB/FB rate and he logged at least 190 innings in nine straight seasons between 2002 and 2010. In terms of fantasy value, Garland's always been a better pitcher for his actual teams than fantasy teams because he doesn't miss a lot of bats (4.86 career K/9) and has a so-so ERA (4.32 for his career). Even if he regains his health, it's unlikely Garland helps many fantasy teams in 2013.
Jackie Bradley Jr. - Jackie Bradley Jr. entered Sunday batting .429 in 22 games this spring. He added to his stellar spring by cracking a three-run HR and is expected to get another start later today in his quest to lock down a roster spot with the Red Sox for Opening Day. Last season, between High-A and AA ball, Bradley Jr. stole 24 bases, hit nine HRs and scored 90 runs in 128 games. While his batting average fell from .359 at High-A to .271 at AA, he's clearly had no issue hitting the ball this spring. In keeper leagues, Bradley Jr. is a must-own, but those in one-year leagues probably won't find much value from the speedster this season. Despite the gaudy spring training numbers, there isn't a good reason for Boston to keep Bradley Jr. with the big league club unless he's going to play every day, which seems unlikely considering the Red Sox already have Shane Victorino, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonny Gomes, Daniel Nava and Mike Carp as options. They'd be better off letting him get regular ABs in the minors to refine his approach, especially since he's still just 22-years old.
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