Indians' Rotation: Zach McAllister, Deep Sleeper - The Indians already know their top three starters are Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Brett Myers, but a Cleveland pitcher that should intrigue fantasy managers is No. 4 starter Zach McAllister. McAllister pitched 125 innings and posted a 2.89 K/BB for the Tribe in 2012 while owning a respectable 4.11 FIP. McAllister wasn't especially lucky either, as evidenced by a 64% strand rate and .304 BABIP despite a 19% LD%. I like the 7.90 K/9 rate, although because the right hander recorded a league average K% (20%) and swinging strike % (8.3%), I'm cautious in predicting a similar whiff rate in 2013. Additionally, the biggest knock on McAllister is his struggles with the long ball - he owned an ugly 1.36 HR/9 in 2012.
So with that all said, why do I think McAllister has value in deeper leagues in 2013? As aside from better luck in 2013, I see a few reasons to be bullish on the former Yankee farmhand. First, in the minors, McAllister consistently limited the free passes while posting K/BB rates in the 2.5-to-1 range, and that type of control lends itself well to the majors. Second, despite all the HRs he allowed in 2012, McAllister rarely struggled with keeping the ball in the park during his minor league career. For example, at AAA in 2011 and 2012, McAllister posted 0.64 and 0.71 HR/9 marks. Finally, McAllister is still just 25-years old and he will be pitching in front of a much-improved Cleveland defense, especially in the outfield. Combining McAllister's expected growth in his second season in the rotation along with a stabilization of luck and better defenders around him point toward a starter that can log an ERA under 4.00 with about 150 strikeouts over the course of this season.
Indians' Catcher: Carlos Santana, Second Half Surge Points to Big 2013 - Carlos Santana feels a bit undervalued heading into the 2013 season, mostly because he's posted batting averages of .239 and .252 the past two seasons and hit nine fewer HRs in 2012 compared to 2011. However, I like Santana to be one of the most productive fantasy catchers in 2013 as he enters his age-27 season, mostly because he possesses strong secondary skills that should translate to a higher batting average and more HRs in 2013. After owning a .217 ISO and 16% HR/FB rate in 2011, Santana saw a drop in both those categories in 2012, posting a .168 ISO to go along with an 11% HR/FB rate. However, while the HRs fell, Santana managed a 13-point improvement on his batting average by upping his LD% from 15% in 2011 to 19% last season. Meanwhile, he maintained a strong EYE of 0.90 and excellent 18% chase rate. Additionally, Santana came on strong in the second half by making more contact (his K% dropped from 20% in the first half to 13% in the second half) and showing more power (.498 SLG%, .217 ISO). The second half version of Santana, not the first half version (.221/.339/.336), is much closer to what you should expect in 2013. He has much more value in OBP leagues, but we expect a big jump in his batting average that will make him above average compared to other catchers in that category as well in 2013. Santana has the upside to be one of the top-three catchers in fantasy if everything breaks right.
Cardinals' Second Base: Matt Carpenter, Deep Sleeper -The Cardinals' second base competition is down to two players: Matt Carpenter and Daniel Descalso, and all indications point to the former winning this battle. If Carpenter does become the St. Louis second baseman, he has value in 12-team and larger formats thanks to a solid bat and position eligibility. In the minors during the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Carpenter raked, hitting over .300 at both AA and AAA while pounding 12 HRs at each stage and showing an excellent ability to draw a walk (13%-15% walk rates). Carpenter translated that hitting profile against major league pitching in 2012, owning a 10% walk rate, .169 ISO and excellent .294/.365/.463 slash line in 340 plate appearances. He also tallied an impressive 24% LD rate. Even better, in most league formats, Carpenter may have eligibility in four positions: first base, second base, third base and outfield. Carpenter won't need to be a great defender to fend off Descalso, just adequate, and so far reports out of Cardinals' camp say the former Texas Christian player is holding his own. Grab him in your auctions and drafts as an excellent backup and potential starter in 2013.
Cardinals' Rotation: Valuing Jaime Garcia - Last season, Jaime Garcia pitched just 121 innings before being shut down with shoulder issues that had folks in Cardinals' camp concerned about the lefty when spring training began for 2013. Remember that Garcia also had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and he had a career-low 88 mph fastball last season, so there's no guarantee the offseason magically cured the lefty. So far this spring, Garcia has pitched well, allowing 5 ER and striking out 11 in 15 innings. Looking toward 2013, Garcia can have some decent fantasy value if he can stay healthy and his luck normalizes. Despite posting a respectable 3.92 ERA, Garcia was quite unlucky in the 2012, owning a 2.97 FIP and 3.39 xFIP. He recorded an impressive 53% GB rate, but that mark didn't translate into outs as the lefty dealt with a bloated .339 BABIP and 69% strand rate. He has consistently struck out about seven batters per game during the past three seasons while limiting HRs and walks. Additionally, I'm encouraged by Garcia's career-best 34% chase rate in 2012, which points to a pitcher that's fooling hitters more often. Garcia has the ability to help teams in all league formats, but the overarching health concerns make him risky in 2013.
Reds' Rotation: Regression at the Top with Johnny Cueto - We here at Fantistics aren't expecting Johnny Cueto to string together a third straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA in 2013. That's because Cueto has posted ERAs of 2.31 and 2.78 the past two seasons despite FIP and xFIP marks well above his actual ERA. In 2011, his FIP and xFIP were 3.45 and 3.90, respectively and, last season, he recorded an FIP of 3.27 and xFIP of 3.65. In 2012, he also enjoyed a 79% strand rate. Certainly, Cueto is going to be a very valuable pitcher in 2013, but it is worth noting that it's unlikely he can maintain such an impressive ERA considering his peripherals. Cueto doesn't miss a ton of bats, with just a 19% K% and 7.03 K/9 in 2012. He also saw his LD% jump by 5% and GB% fall by 5%. On the other hand, the right hander posted an excellent 3.47 K/BB and did improve his chase rate to 33%. If you're obtaining Cueto under the thinking he'll have an ERA in the 3.25 range with about 150-160 strikeouts, you're likely valuing him correctly. Anything more than that and you're taking a risk he can beat the odds of regression for a third straight season.
Reds' Catcher: Why You Need to Keep an Eye on Devin Mesoraco - The Reds have three catchers in camp, trying to secure two jobs. Ryan Hanigan has already cemented his status as the No. 1 guy to start the season, so it's down to Miguel Olivo and Devin Mesoraco for the backup spot. While Olivo has the experience, I'm betting Mesoraco ends up winning the position, especially thanks to his excellent spring (1.427 OPS) and higher upside. Last season, Mesoraco received 184 plate appearances in the majors and scuffled to the tune of a .212/.288/.352 slash line. Mesoraco's struggles were due to bad luck (.234 BABIP), swinging at too many pitches (32% chase rate) and not squarely up on the ball (16% LD rate). None of that is surprising considering Mesoraco jumped from High-A ball to the majors in just three seasons and is still only 24-years old. At his last stop at AAA, Mesoraco posted a strong .289/.371/.484 slash line to go along with 15 HRs. He's always shown decent patience and even recorded a 9% walk rate in the majors last season , which is certainly encouraging. It's going to come down to playing time, but if Mesoraco can garner enough ABs, he's worth considering in NL-only and deeper leagues as a backup catcher.
Meanwhile, Hanigan offers much more value to the Reds than your fantasy team thanks to his strong defense and ability to handle a pitching staff. For those in OBP leagues, Hanigan is a bit more valuable thanks to a career 12% walk rate and .370 OBP. However, his .360 SLG% and .085 ISO illustrate an almost complete lack of power. The one reason to believe Hanigan could have some value in deeper leagues is that he's never consistently owned the starting catcher's job for a full season and, in 70 games in 2010, he owned a .300/.405/.429 slash line. Obviously, you're taking quite a leap of faith to think he can post those kinds of numbers over a full season during his age-32 year, but I'm sure stranger things have happened. All said, Hanigan has little fantasy value in most formats, but should at least be on the radar for team's in OBP leagues.
Around the league...
Wandy Rodriguez - Wandy Rodriguez held the Puerto Rican team to zero runs over six innings while striking out four on Saturday in the World Baseball Classic. The 34-year old Rodriguez has seen his fantasy value drop over the past four seasons thanks to a declining K/9 and K%. After posting strikeout rates between 21%-22% from 2008-2010, Rodriguez owned a 20% mark in 2011 and just a 15% mark in 2012. This caused him to barely whiff six batters per game for the Pirates and Astros last season. With such a low number of strikeouts, Rodriguez's decent, but unspectacular 3.76 ERA wasn't nearly as valuable to fantasy managers. The lefty also posted his highest xFIP mark (4.09) since 2007. Rodriguez tried to counter his low whiff rate by walking fewer batters and allowing fewer HRs in 2012 than in year's past, and he'll need to continue that approach to be successful in 2013. Rodriguez still deserves a spot in 12-team leagues and deeper, but he's got little upside at this point and his peripherals point toward a risky play this season.
David Ortiz - Over the weekend, Big Papi reported still feeling discomfort in his Achilles when running on a treadmill which means he may not be able to participate in batting practice later today. Obviously, this lingering issue is becoming a larger problem, starting last year and still at the point that it's keeping Ortiz from properly preparing for the start of the 2013 season. At 37-years old, and with such a huge frame, injuries are likely to be part of Ortiz's final seasons before retirement. If he can stay on the field, we're talking about a very strong bat, who knocked 23 HRs and posted a .293 ISO in 2012 - his highest mark since 2006. He also owned an incredible 20% HR/FB rate and solid 21% LD mark. Had he stayed healthy for more than 383 plate appearances, Ortiz would have liked clearly the 30-HR plateau with ease. It will come down to health for Ortiz in 2013, and he represents a high risk, high reward player.
John Lackey - John Lackey threw 83 pitches in five innings during a minor league game Saturday. The right hander, recovering from Tommy John surgery last season, should make the Red Sox rotation out of spring training, but he represents a high risk, moderate reward option. In both 2010 and 2011, Lackey was unusable in fantasy baseball, thanks to ERAs of 4.40 and 6.41. His xFIP marks during those two seasons were slightly better (4.15, 4.70), but didn't point toward a pitcher that was on the cusp of being effective. Lackey's K/9 and K% have both dropped for three straight seasons while his BB/9 has risen during that same timeframe. At this point, Lackey is more name than anything else and, at 34-years old, it's unlikely he becomes fantasy relevant again.
Carl Crawford - Carl Crawford made his Cactus League debut on Sunday as the Dodgers' DH and finished 0-for-3. Crawford will be an interesting player to watch in 2013, after a perceived disappointing stint in Boston during the past two seasons. At 31-years old, the outfielder still has his speed and should be good for swiping a decent number of bases in 2013. Additionally, he did bat .282 in 31 games in 2012, which is only 10 points off his career average. His power was also intact with a .197 ISO and .479 SLG%. Crawford's problem in 2012 was a complete lack of patience, posting a dreadful 2% walk rate which depressed his OBP to just .306. For his career, Crawford has never been one to take a lot of free passes (5% career walk rate), but last year was especially bad. Given his overall numbers from 2012, I like Crawford to bounce back and agree with our Fantistics projection of a .290 batting average, 27 steals and 13 HRs.
Chris Tillman - Chris Tillman, who has been dealing with an abdominal issue, threw two innings in a minor league game on Saturday without discomfort. Tillman posted an impressive 2.93 ERA in 86 innings in 2012, but it seems very unlikely he can come close to repeating such a performance in 2013. For starters, Tillman owned a 1.26 HR/9 and 4.34 xFIP last year. If he has similar numbers this season and still records a sub-3.00 ERA, he needs to go to Vegas and play the slots. He also posted a meager 34% GB rate and allowed a 21% LD rate, but still managed to hold opponents to a .221 BABIP which is, again, not sustainable. Tillman is still just 25-years old and his xFIP has fallen the past two seasons, so there's hope for continued progress. It just likely won't be enough progress to justify owning the right hander in 2013.
Aroldis Chapman and Mike Leake - Interesting news out of Reds' camp on Saturday as Aroldis Chapman told reporters he'd prefer to close this season, rather than be in the rotation. In reading about Chapman this spring, he has had mixed results and seems to be relying on his fastball too much. If Chapman doesn't finish camp strong, the Reds may consider pushing him back to the bullpen for 2013. What adds even more intrigue to this storyline is that Mike Leake is apparently looking very sharp in camp, hitting 93 mph and throwing four pitches for strikes. Last season, Leake pitched 179 innings and made 30 starts, while posting a decent 3.82 xFIP. Unfortunately, he dealt with a low 71% strand rate and .306 BABIP which contributed to a 4.58 ERA. Leake's biggest struggle is the long ball, as he's owned HR/9 marks of 1.24, 1.23 and 1.31 during his three years in the majors. Keep an eye on this story in the coming weeks as it will have significant fantasy implications for the upcoming season.
Ross Detwiler - The Nationals announced over the weekend that Ross Detwiler would start the season as the team's No. 5 starter, which obviously gives the right hander's fantasy value a boost. In the past two seasons, Detwiler has tossed 230 innings, mostly as a starter, with an ERA in the low 3.00s. Last season, he struck out just 5.75 batters per game, but limited HRs (0.82 HR/9) and induced a lot of grounders (51% GB%). The result was a 3.40 ERA despite a 4.34 xFIP. Even with some regression, it's likely Detwiler can post a sub-4.00 ERA in 2013, but he'll do it without a lot of strikeouts. That makes him a back end starter in deeper NL-only and mixed leagues.
Roy Halladay - Roy Halladay was topping out at 87 mph in the first inning Sunday and ended up recording just three outs before being pulled for what the Phillies called a stomach virus. This marks the second straight spring training outing where Halladay's fastball lacked zip. The lost velocity is especially concerning when you consider Halladay's fastball in 2012 was about 1.5 mph slower than his previous seasons. Perhaps not coincidently, Halladay also posted the highest ERA and xFIP of his career in 2012. He turns 36-years old in May and the combination of age and decline in skills makes Halladay a risky play this season.
Mark Teixeira - Mark Teixeira acknowledged on Sunday that he may not return until June because the Yankees want to ensure his partially torn tendon sheath has fully recovered before bringing him back. The fear is that by bringing him back too soon, Teixeira may re-injure himself and need season-ending surgery. This is the same type of injury Jose Bautista suffered at the end of last season. Teixeira has seen his OBP fall for four straight seasons and he posted a career-low .475 SLG% in 2012. However, his .224 ISO is still respectable, and within range of his career .248 mark, and his 16% HR/FB rate is in line with his 18% career norm. The biggest change for Tex was that he hit a lot more grounders last season (7% increase compared to 2011), which came directly from his fly ball rate (which dropped 7%). Overall, the biggest concern is that this type of injury can sap power in the longer term, so even after Tex returns, he may not be the same power hitter.
Jon Lester - Jon Lester tossed six perfect innings on Sunday against the Rays, lowering his spring training ERA to 0.90. He struck out six. There are reasons to believe Lester will have a nice bounce back season in 2013, but that's far from a certainty. The southpaw's ERA was a full run above his xFIP in 2012 and he also dealt with a .312 BABIP and 68% strand rate. On the flip side, his K% dropped from 26% in 2010 to 23% in 2011 to just 19% last season. He also witnessed his LD% jump from 15% in 2011 to 22% in 2012. Clearly, Lester's disastrous 2012 was a combination of bad luck and poor pitching. He should be a top-40 starting pitcher in 2012, but don't expect him to regain his 2009 and 2010 form.
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