Chicago Cubs:
3B Position Battle: Luis Valbuena, Ian Stewart, Josh Vitters
The Cubs entered camp in 2013 with a "see what sticks" approach at 3B. The names thrown against the wall to start camp included former top prospects Ian Stewart and Josh Vitters along with journeyman Luis Valbuena. Three weeks into camp and the position battle still hasn't really gotten off the ground. Josh Vitters and Ian Stewart each are dealing with quad strains and Vitters is the only one between the two to accumulate any AB's (2), while Luis Valbuena has quietly put up a .333/.407/.542 line in his 24 spring AB's. As a result Valbuena appears to be in the lead simply by default. Before taking a look at what each of these players offer from a fantasy perspective let's take a look at the most likely playing time scenarios.
Cubs ideal pecking order - Starter: Ian Stewart, Reserve: Luis Valbuena, Minors: Josh Vitters
The Cubs know Josh Vitters (.395 OPS, 30+% K% in 109 PA's) isn't quite ready to handle big league pitching and after his first successful trip through AAA (.869 OPS in 452 PA's) would like him to re-gain the confidence he had at AAA but also develop a better approach that will allow him to succeed at the big league level. Scouts have long raved about Vitters swing (one of the few RH swings you'll ever hear referred to as "pretty"), but have also long questioned his free-swinging approach. Big league pitchers abused Vitters last year by simply refusing to throw pitches in the strike zone (43.2% Zone %). Until Vitters demonstrates an improved approach, this Cubs front office (who didn't draft Vitters) won't consider Vitters a viable long-term alternative at 3B.
Ian Stewart is a former top-prospect (#4 overall prospect by Baseball America in 2005, top 60 2004-2008) who ripped through the minor leagues before contact issues exposed his bat at the major league level. Stewart has shown a good approach (career 28% chase rate, 10.3% BB Rate) along with above average power (career .185 ISO), but a 72.3% contact rate had led to an unappealing 27.3% K Rate. The career .232/.319/.417 line in over 1600 PA's inspires little confidence that the soon-to-be 28-year-old will be figuring things out anytime soon. Stewart, however, has the front office on his side (traded for him before the 2012 season and re-upped him in the offseason) and that goes a long way in a position battle amidst less than ideal candidates. If Stewart can stay healthy (a significant "if"), I expect Stewart to get the first crack at the starting position. A best case fantasy scenario for Stewart would involve the power blossoming in Wrigley Field, while he makes enough contact to let some luck on batted balls push his batting average to the .240-.250 threshold. A replication of his 2010 line (.256/.338/.443 with a .256-54-18-61-5 roto line in 121 games) would appear to be the upside. A more likely scenario includes Stewart's health woes being a persistent challenge which coupled with the contact issues lead to another disappointing campaign similar to the 2011-2012 seasons.
Luis Valbuena has spent the better half of his 9 minor league season at AAA where he's hit an impressive (.304/.385/.476). Unfortunately the hitter he's been at AAA hasn't been anything close to what he's done at the big league level (.224/.292/.343 in over 1100 PA's). Valbuena's peripherals look wildly different at the two levels and while his AB's haven't been consistent at the big league level you have to wonder if he hasn't earned the dreaded 4A tag. Valbuena is simply an insurance option as a stop-gap for the Cubs. His bat doesn't have the ceiling that Ian Stewart's does and his defense is just average for 3B but he's largely been durable throughout his career and does have the AAA track record to at least suggest some improvement in the bat.
My fantasy take: None of the three will make an impact in traditional formats this year. If you're shooting for upside in deeper leagues I think Stewart gets a crack before Josh Vitters does and has more pro-ready skills. Vitters needs to make significant strides in his approach in order to have success as anything other than a platoon player at the big league level. Valbuena is the most likely to make an impact in deep formats simply because he's the most likely of the trio to earn playing time (in large part due to Stewart's health concerns).
Brett Jackson's re-worked swing:
Brett Jackson, in many ways like Josh Vitters, has been a ridiculed prospect because of a potential "fatal flaw". In Vitters case it's his willingness to swing at anything thrown in the vicinity of the plate. For Jackson, it's his issues making contact. Jackson actually has a strong approach (12.4% BB Rate in the minors) at the plate, but his 26.4% K% in the minor leagues is largely the result of some significant issues making contact. In a limited big league debut last year (142 PA's), Jackson made contact on just 64% of his swings compared to a league average of 79%. The result was an ugly 14.5% swinging strike % and a horrid 41% K Rate. To put this in context, Mark Reynolds career K% is 32.3% and Adam Dunn's is 28.2%. No matter how many walks Brett Jackson draws (15.5% rate in the majors last year) or how much power he hits for (.167 ISO last year), you simply can't be successful with that many strikeouts. So coming into the season Jackson has re-worked his swing to try and shorten things up and make more contact. The limited sample we have to work off of (21 PA's) in Spring Training has looked good on the surface (.313/.458/.625) but has still come with 5 strikeouts. It's too small a sample to draw any conclusions from but it is worth keeping an eye on as we move into the season. Jackson isn't guaranteed a spot in the Cubs OF rotation but figures to break camp as part of a 4-5 man OF rotation. Contact % as a metric tends to show predictive characteristics around 100 PA's, so keep an eye on Jackson's contact % during the season's first 100 PA's to see if the adjustment in his swing has had any positive effects on his fantasy value. For me, Jackson is just a flier in deep leagues. His power-speed combination is reminiscent of Mike Cameron but his contact issues are far more severe. Without the contact, the other two won't be able to shine through.
Colorado Rockies:
Nolan Arenado's Strong Spring:
Last spring in this space I wrote a lot about two young Rockies positional prospects: 1) Nolan Arenado and 2) Wilin Rosario. Both players took the camp by storm with their bats, but Rosario was the one who ultimately stuck for the Rockies and for fantasy owners. Looking back, Rosario's experience at AA, having accumulated nearly two full seasons at the level, was probably a differentiating point between the two young players "readiness" for the big leagues and as the year went on it became clear to the Rockies organization that maturity was another difference. Nolan Arenado struggled after being demoted out of camp and multiple reports from inside and outside of the organization critiqued his maturity level. Arenado finished the season at AA with a modest .285/.337/.428 line that saw a drop-off in his BB Rate and his ISO from high A while also introducing the concerns about make-up.
Arenado's been on a tear this spring (.308/.308/.885), having slugged 4 HR's and 3 2B's in his first 26 AB's while racking up 10 RBI's. The performance this spring has once again put him on the radar for fantasy analysts who are prospect hunting. "Competing" with Jordan Pacheco (.375/.423/.417) and Chris Nelson (.217/.250/.261) for the 3B AB's in the spring, fantasy owners have rightly noted that Arenado has a chance to fill the long-term void at 3B this year; however, I'd like to temper everyone's expectations for the young players' arrival. The Rockies have a number of reasons to break camp without Arenado. First and least important, Jordan Pacheco has performed adequately enough that Arenado can't feel like he's run away with the competition. Secondly, the Rockies have every reason to want to test Arenado's maturity again after a disappointing reaction last year. Finally, the Rockies (largely considered a non-contender by most) have little reason to accelerate Arenado's arbitration clock. If Arenado hadn't experienced the reported maturity issues last year, I think the Rockies would be more aggressive in their development plan with him. But after last year, I'm tempering my expectations. I still think Arenado is draft-able in deep leagues and certainly NL Only formats, I just expect his arrival at the earliest to come in May. In my opinion, the Rockies are more likely to use the beginning of the year as more seasoning for the young Arenado. When called up, Arenado should display good contact skills that along with the Coors Field environment should help support a solid batting average. His power will play up in Coors but mostly via gap power and the environment should help his runs/rbi's. I'd expect a 162-game pace of something like .265-70-17-70-3.
Josh Rutledge: Sleeper or Bust Candidate?
Any player that profiles at a scarce position with Coors Field as their backdrop gets some attention, but when Josh Rutledge burst onto the scene last year with two consecutive months of a .900+ OPS he got the attention of fantasy owners. Rutledge limped to the finish line with a .197/.248/.288 September which left fantasy owners wondering which Rutledge can we trust going into the 2013 season?
From a skills perspective Rutledge is a difficult player to project. He has a limited history beyond high A (just 379 PA's) and while his minor league performance has been strong (.870 OPS), the accompanying skills are a bit weak (6% BB Rate, 18% K Rate). At the major league level, he was exposed a bit as a hacker. He chased 38% of pitches outside the strike zone and posted an 11.3% swinging strike rate that was two points above the league average. When Rutledge did make contact he hit the ball with authority, posting a 20.1% LD Rate and impressive .195 ISO. As you can see, the picture is mixed. We have a player who is consistently offering at pitcher's pitches and swinging through a high percentage of pitches but squaring the ball up authoritatively when he does make contact. As a result, the range of outcomes for Rutledge is wide. Rutledge could finish as a Top 20 MI option due to the strong lineup and hitting environment or his poor plate discipline could leave him floundering and demoted by May. In my personal opinion, he's a nice late round sleeper in mixed leagues where it's easier to replace talent that falters. In deeper leagues, I'd prefer to take gambles on players who have a firmer grasp on their long-term playing time (like Jed Gyorko for example).
Florida Marlins:
First glimpse of a star:
His performance likely doesn't have any fantasy relevance for this upcoming season, but those who have paid attention to Marlins camp this spring have come away with rave reviews about their top OF prospect Christian Yelich. Yelich has posted a ridiculous .351/.455/.730 line in 37 AB's and done so with an even more impressive 6:5 BB:K Ratio. The few AB's I've seen from Yelich have shown the advanced approach scouts have clung to as well as that different sound off the bat you only hear from a few guys. Yelich's performance might earn him a chance to skip AA, but it's likely the Marlins take a conservative path with their rising star. After 100+ games in high A last year, Yelich appears ticketed for Jacksonville. We've got a 2014 ETA on Yelich, who ranks as David Regan's #7 rated hitter, but if the performance this spring carries into the regular season we could see Yelich in the 2nd half of 2013.
Jacob Turner: Post Hype Sleeper or Overrated Prospect?
The answer might be neither. Turner was a legitimate pitching prospect with a big heavy fastball and strong minor league results to go with it (3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.2 K/9), but suffered a shoulder injury in Spring Training last season and suddenly the prospect status dimmed. Turner's average fastball velocity held during the course of the season, but his performance left a lot to be desired. Turner struggled to get "on-top" of hitters with his fastball as he did in the minors and his HR Rate jumped dramatically despite playing in pitcher-friendly parks. This spring Turner has had just two outings but the numbers haven't been particularly pretty. He's walked 4 and struck out 2 in just 3 1/3 innings of work. The spring training sample is way too small t get worked up about, but I'm typically a pessimist with young pitchers who experience shoulder problems. Turner has a great environment to develop in a pitcher friendly park and his stuff (9.6% swinging strike rate last season) suggests there's breakout potential, but I remain skeptical. Turner only has fantasy value in deep formats, but he's not a potential breakout player that I'm targeting in deep drafts.
Brennan Boesch (OF - NYY): The Yankees signed Brennan Boesch, who was released by the Tigers earlier this week. Boesch was given a major league contract and is expected to compete for playing time in the Yankees thin OF. Boesch has shown glimpses of impressive power, but his over-aggressive approach (career 39.5% chase rate) at the plate has allowed pitchers to feed him a steady diet of pitches outside the zone (40% Zone %). With Boesch putting pitchers' pitches in play, his ISO has steadily dropped and the only appealing part of his arsenal has evaporated. Yankee Stadium's short porch in RF should help Boesch re-discover some of his power but his fantasy value figures to be more of the "lightening in a bottle" variety. He's unlikely to hold playing time long-term as the Yankees get healthy in mid-May and his opportunity early in the season figures to be split as part of a platoon. If you're interested in taking a flier on the 28 year old OF in deep formats I can understand it, but I don't believe he's mixed league relevant.
David Wright (3B - NYM): The Mets and Team USA's 3B David Wright was diagnosed with an intracostal strain that now has his opening day in doubt. This is the same injury Brett Lawrie suffered about a week back and had the Jays discussing Jose Bautista as a short-term fill-in at 3B. In Will Carroll's "Under the Knife" column at Bleacher Report he put an estimated time-table of April 15th as a return-date for Lawrie. With Wright about a week behind it seems fair to reason a DL stint to open the season is probably in Wright's future and it could knock out the first few weeks of the season. We'll update our playing time projections for Wright accordingly as more information comes out.
Aramis Ramirez (3B - MIL): Aramis Ramirez returned to the Brewers lineup on Friday after missing two weeks with a sprained left knee. Ramirez went 1-2 in the return but the most important thing here is he should be back on track to play opening day. At age 33 last season Ramirez defied my own expectations as he rewarded the Brewers' faith in him with a strong .300-92-27-105 season. While the production was admittedly strong, there are some reasons that suggest Ramirez will have a difficult time repeating his performance. First and most importantly, father time isn't exactly on Ramirez's age. Secondly, Ramirez started to show some mild signs of skill erosion last year. His chase rate remained elevated (36%, career 28.5%) and his swinging strike rate rose above his career rate (9.9%, career 9.5%). Lastly, he posted a near career high in his GB Rate (38.6%, career 35%). The rest of Ramirez's indicators were in-line with Ramirez's performance the last few seasons with the exception of a modest spike in his ISO. A likely moderation of the ISO is enough to expect Ramirez's numbers to dip modestly this season and some added risk on the plate discipline peripherals coupled with a checkered injury history make Aramis Ramirez a likely over-valued player heading into the season.
Neil Walker (2B - PIT): I'm really high on Neil Walker this year as a late round 2B or MI option and one of the reasons I'm so high on Walker is simply how reliable his production has been in his career. For the last 3 years Walker has hit between .273-.296 with a 150-game pace for Runs between 72-77, HR's between 11-16, RBI's between 78-90, and the last two years he's been between 7-9 SB's. He's basically a .275-75-15-80-8 in the bank, which is Jason Kipnis without the speed. Add in the fact that Walker, age 27, is entering his power prime and hitting in the middle of a young/improving lineup and I even see some upside for the Bucs 2B. The fact that he runs at all is what gives him Top 10 upside at the position. For a player going outside the Top 10 at his position, he's a nice value play from my perspective.
Oscar Taveras (OF - STL): Everyone is going to get caught up looking for the next Mike Trout and Bryce Harper this year and so far it looks like that hunt is centered around Jurickson Profar and Billy Hamilton, two prospects who have tantalized owners with their potential for years. But the name I want to point our subscribers' attention to is Oscar Taveras. Both Hamilton and Taveras have immense fantasy potential, but each of those players is blocked in the short-term. In Profar's case it's by largely durable players in Texas, while Hamilton is blocked by an injury risk in Shin Soo Choo but also has some development left in his bat before being major league ready. Oscar Taveras is of course blocked by Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday, each of whom have had injury concerns in recent years. Taveras has hit .302/.348/.535 this spring and continued to show the excellent contact rates and plate discipline he displayed on his way to a .321/.380/.572 line in AA last year. I think Taveras is up by May and once he's up I think he's up for good. Our current ranking of Taveras as a Top 60 OF might surprise some of you when he's not even ticketed to start the season in the big leagues, but I think he's a strong draft and stash candidate in all formats. Make no mistake there are no Mike Trout's in this year's prospect class, but Oscar Taveras could replicate the success Bryce Harper had last year.
Paul Konerko (1B - CHW): Paul Konerko went 2-2 on Friday to improve his spring training line to .394/.429/.879 in his first 33 AB's. At 36, Konerko saw a dip in production last year that many will attribute to an age-related decline, but a closer look at Konerko's season shows a large discrepancy between his 1st half (.932 OPS) and 2nd half (.771 OPS) production. Konerko experienced a really painful wrist injury in June that wasn't corrected until offseason surgery. Not surprisingly this corresponds almost exactly with the drop-off in performance. Prior to Konerko's wrist injury he was hitting .366/.445/.617 and after the injury he hit just .263/.332/.417. Konerko's plate discipline skills, his chase rate and swinging strike rate, were all in line with the previous year's performance but his power just evaporated. While the now 37-year old does carry some age-related risk, I don't think last year's performance was the result of a decline. I expect him to bounce-back strongly this year and make for a nice value on his current 9th round ADP.
Dexter Fowler (OF - COL): I'm a big believer that we're going to see a breakout season from Dexter Fowler this year. Fowler will turn the magical 27 next Friday and a quick look at his peripherals show continual development from the Rockies OF. Fowler posted a career best .174 ISO last year which represented his 3rd consecutive year of growth in that department, while continuing to hold his excellent command of the strike zone (23% chase rate, 12.8% BB Rate). The Rockies have mistakenly given away 15-25% of Fowler's AB's every year at the bottom of the lineup. With new management in town and a healthy return from the heart of their order I expect Fowler to challenge the .275-100-15-60-20 threshold and earn a Top 40 position in the final OF rankings. Currently going closer to the 60th OF off the board, I think Fowler is a nice draft day value.
Matt Moore (SP - TB): Moore was dominant on Friday as he allowed just 3 hits, 2 BB's, and an unearned run in 5 innings of work against the Phillies. Moore struck out 7 and lowered his spring ERA to 4.97. Mike Leone wrote an extensive blurb last week on Moore's breakout potential last week and I have to echo his sentiments. We often get too focused on how a player starts when they have hype to them and forget how they finish. Moore posted a 3.36 ERA and 1.29 WHIP from June on with a 8.7 K/9. He's a legitimate Top 25 SP this year and if he can make the leap forward, he has Top 10 upside. Currently going as the 32nd SP off the board, he's a huge draft day bargain.
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