Will Carl Crawford be ready for Opening Day?
It sure sounds as if he won't. Crawford was recently shut down for a week due to soreness in his surgically-repaired elbow. He is reporting no issues hitting off a tee, but time is running out in his bid to be ready for Opening Day. Expect the Dodgers to leave him behind in Arizona as they open the season at home against the Giants. Expect an uninspiring combination of Jerry Hairston and Skip Schumaker in left field, though Alex Castellanos (three home runs this spring) and Yasiel Puig (.429 this spring and leading the team in hits and runs) still have time to make their cases. I recently won Crawford for $15 in a very deep (18-team, 40-man rosters) mixed league, but I just don't know what to expect here. In all honesty, if I can get 130 games of .270-12-50 with 25 steals, I'll be happy. Puig and Castellanos are intriguing in that unlike Hairston and Schumaker, they have some upside and deserve a look in deeper formats.
Dodgers fifth starter battle
Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang have each allowed six runs in five innings, Chad Billingsley six in 7.2 innings, and Ted Lilly has pitched just two innings. At this point Billingsley remains the favorite as long as his troublesome right elbow holds up. He was on track for a career-best 2.7 BB/9 last year, and before getting hurt, Billingsley had increased his K/9 rate year over year from 7.3 to 7.7 and his velocity remained steady with a 91.5 mph average fastball. That said, how often do you hear Tommy John surgery rumors about a guy and then see those rumors never come to fruition? The term "ticking time bomb" certainly applies here, but if you can get him at a significant discount, I'd probably take the plunge.
Dbacks #5 starter
The early spring games have yet to results in a front-runner among competitors Tyler Skaggs, Randall Delgado, and Pat Corbin. Skaggs and Delgado have combined to allow 10 runs in just 5.1 innings while Corbin has fanned nine in just six innings, but his ERA sits at 6.0. Looking beyond the numbers however, Skaggs is easily the guy with the most upside, and his three shutout innings against Team Mexico Tuesday aren't reflected in his spring stats and are likely a direct results of some extra bullpen work this week. Skaggs failed to impress in six MLB starts last year (5.83 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9), but his upside remains high.
Who's on short for Arizona?
It sure appears to be Cliff Pennington at this point. After Kevin Towers went out and procured more than his share of no-hit shortstops this winter (Didi Gregorius being the other), the favorite immediately became Pennington after he was given a two-year $5 million deal. Pennington is working on shortening his swing this spring, and so far the results are encouraging - 7-for-18. He's even homered and stolen as couple of bases. Given Pennington is a career .249 hitter in over 2000 PA's to go with an 81.4 AB/HR rate, it's hard to be optimistic, but he'll steal a few bases. Even if he struggled to hit .260, Pennington may have some short-term NL-only value early in the year.
What role could Kyle Blanks play in San Diego this year?
Blanks has been the runaway star of Padres' camp so far this year, starting off 12-for-28 (2 HR, 6 XBH) with a 5:6 K:BB in the early going. Blanks has always struggled with left-handers and with staying healthy, but his 10.2 BB% is solid and he can hit the ball a long way. The other big issue is his inability to make regular contact (ugly career 64% contact rate), but he's still just 26 and as a guy who once hit .325/.404/.514 as a 21 year-old in AA, Blanks shouldn't be written off in deeper formats. The big question: where will he play? Triple-A Tuscon is certainly an option, but if Blanks continues to hit, he could see some time at first base and the outfield corners. The big issue there however is that the Padres already have left-handed hitting regulars there, so a trade is probably the best scenario for Blanks' fantasy owners. Carlos Quentin is always good for an injury or two, but until someone goes down, Blanks will likely find himself in Triple-A regardless of how he does this spring.
Update on the San Diego 2B job
Logan Forsythe is dealing with a case of plantar fasciitis, giving top prospect Jedd Gyroko a very early leg up on the starting job. Gyorko has cooled off since a hot start, but he still has three homers for a team that is going to struggling to find power outside of Chase Headley. Gyorko is 7-for-30 with a 7:2 K:BB, but six of those hits have gone for extra bases. Forsythe is 5-for-20 with a pair of triples, so this battle is still very much on. Forsythe hit .273/.343/.390 with six homers in 350 at-bats for the Padres last year. He's never hit for much power, but Forsythe could profile as a solid #2 hitter given he makes good contact and has as decent batting eye. I still wouldn't way him outside of the deepest of league. Gyorko is the guy you want here, but obviously only if he wins the job.
Domonic Brown (OF-PHI) - Perhaps we're finally seeing the Domonic Brown that made him one of the top prospects in the game. Brown leads the league in hits so far this spring with 16, and his .432/.523/.700 slash line is eye-popping. Two of those hits were off a fairly tough lefty, David Price, so he's hitting everyone from soon-to-be grocery baggers to AL Cy Young winners. He's homered three times and his K:BB is a solid 5:6. Brown is just a .235/.316/.396 career hitter, but at age 25, this could be the year he takes a big step forward.
Zach McAllister (P-CLE) - McAllister tossed four scoreless innings Sunday and was immediately informed that he had won a spot in the Cleveland rotation. He's fanned 11 in seven innings and should open as the team's fourth starter. McAllister posted a 4.24 ERA in 22 starts for Cleveland last year and his peripherals supported perhaps an even lower ERA - 7.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. McAllister has always exhibited very good control, posting a 1.8 BB/9 in his last full minor league season. He's never been a big strikeout guy, but with a fastball averaging a tick over 92 mph last year, his stuff supports last year's K rate. If McAllister can do a better job keeping the ball on the ground this year (1.4 HR/9), it's not a stretch to think he can be the team's top starter.
Roberto Hernandez (a.k.a. Fausto Carmona P-TB) - Hernandez is looking more and more like a favorite over Jeff Niemann for the team's fifth starter job according to the Rays' beat writer Marc Topkin. It's a curious comment given Niemann had allowed just two runs on no walks with six strikeouts in 8.1 innings entering Sunday's action. Hernandez has a 4:4 K:BB with two runs allowed through six. Perhaps the thought here is that the Rays would like to dump Niemann's salary and make a path clearer for Chris Archer. Hernandez's last full season came in 2011 in which he posted a 5.25 ERA and 5.2 K/9 for the Indians, so pitching in the AL East (even against a depleted Yankees lineup) probably isn't going to lead to good results.
Rick Porcello (SP-Det) - Porcello is batting with Drew Smyly to be the team's fifth starter, a battle that if Porcello loses, could result in a trade. He's made a pretty good case so far with a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings with a league-leading 14 strikeouts and zero walks. There's even been some speculation that the Tigers could use Porcello as a closer given the struggles of Bruce Rondon, but that's probably unlikely at this point. Impressively, Porcello had 120 big league starts under his belt before turning 24 in December, but he's yet to take that expected step forward. There were encouraging signs last year, as Porcello's average fastball was a career-best 92 mph and he bumped his K/9 up to 5.5 from 5.1 in 2011. Porcello's GB/FB rate also trended up from 1.7 to 2.2, and at age 24, further progress wouldn't surprise.
Donnie Joseph (RP-KC) - This of course is digging deep, but the 25 year-old left-handed Joseph is a guy to watch for as a potential source of saves at some point this year. Joseph has pitched five innings this spring, allowing a run on two hits with a 10:0 K:BB. In case you think that's flukish, here are a few of his K/9 rates in recent minor league stops: 13.5, 15.7, 14.4, 10.2, 13.8. Joseph has some experience as a minor league closer, and though he'd have to leapfrog guys like Greg Holland and Aaron Crow, keep an eye on his usage early in the year.
Dee Gordon (SS-LAD) - Gordon is 4-for-14 with six walks, a .500 OBP, and five stolen bases so far this spring. With Hanley Ramirez guaranteed one spot on the left side of the infield, Gordon is essentially battling Luis Cruz for a starting spot. By all accounts though, Gordon is expected to open the season in Triple-A to gain strength and work on his pitch recognition. Gordon is one of those guys who can steal 40 bases in his sleep, but if he wants a regular gig, he's going to have to do better than a 0.32 EYE and 6.1% BB% as a leadoff guy given his utter lack of power. Perhaps the Dodgers try and convert him to 2B in Albuquerque, as there's no clear long-term successor to Mark Ellis (unless you want to discuss impending free agent Robinson Cano).
David Phelps (SP-NYY) - Phelps is doing all he can to win a starting spot, perhaps at the expense of Ivan Nova. Phelps tossed five scoreless innings and now has a 0.64 ERA in 14 innings. His 6:3 K:BB isn't that impressive, but Phelps did have a 3.34 ERAW and 8.7 K/9 for the Yankees last year, so we know he can miss bats. Nova has pitched well this spring too, so the most likely scenario has Phelps opening in the bullpen. He's a sleeper worth watching.
Dan Haren (SP-WAS) - Haren appears healthy this spring after signing a one-year $13 million deal in the offseason. Haren has allowed four runs in nine innings with a 7:1 K:BB and appears on track to be the team's #4 starter in a stacked Nationals' rotation. Back and hip injuries are likely to blame for Haren's career-worst 88.5 mph average fastball last year, but he's been throwing harder this spring already, touching as high as 93-94 while perhaps averaging in the 90.5 mph range. Expect a healthy Haren to do a far better job keeping the ball down in the zone this year, and with that we can expect last year's career-worst 1.4 HR/9 to trend down significantly.
Peter Bourjos (OF-LAA) - It's hard to know exactly what to make of Bourjos offensively. With 49 XBH and 22 steals, his 2011 rookie season offered plenty of potential. Last year in 195 at-bats, Bourjos hit just .220. His 0.25 career EYE speaks to the main concern, as Bourjos has the speed to steal 30-40 bases and hit double-digit home runs, but he's not going to have much in the way of fantasy value hitting at the bottom of the lineup. Showing progress in his plate discipline could bump Bourjos to at or near the top of the lineup, and considering the big bats that would follow, Bourjos' value would jump significantly. So far this spring Bourjos is batting .333 (three triples) with an 8:3 K:BB, so he's off to a solid start. Bourjos could possibly lose time to Vernon Wells if he gets off to a slow start.
Yasiel Puig (OF-LAD) - The Dodgers have to like what they are seeing from their $42 million investment so far this spring, as Puig is 12-for-28 with three doubles and a home run. It's hard to fault a .429 average, but we would like to see better than an 8:0 K:BB. Puig has looked very athletic running the bases and playing the field, and there is certainly some thunder in his bat. You certainly have to question that trade with Boston, as not dealing for a $100MM+ Crawford would have allowed LA to slot Puig in the outfield. They could have then signed Josh Hamilton and had him or Andre Ethier play first base. Water under the bridge, but at this point if the Dodgers want to clear a spot for Puig this year or next, the most likely scenario is an Ethier trade. Puig logged just 82 minor league at-bats after signing last year, but the results were impressive - five homers and a 1.076 OPS. He's one to watch.
