Toronto Blue Jays
Rebound for Ricky?
Ricky Romero SP - Heading into last season Fantistics warned subscribers that Ricky Romero was overrated, but I don't think any of us saw this coming. Romero's ERA ballooned from 2.92 to 5.77 with his WHIP going from a near elite 1.14 to a number that you probably think involves some sort of typo, 1.67. Romero was terrible, there is no way around it. He saw his K% drop by 4 points while his BB% grew by 4 points. So, why are we projecting a rebound (3.39 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)? Romero is still in the prime of his career (28 YO), appears to be fully healthy this Spring and has a solid history of a 19 K% and 9 BB% to go with one of the best GB rates in the league year in and year out (54.4 career GB%). The hope is that with some offseason tweaks, Romero will return to form. Sometimes guys just have incredibly off years, but Romero has the talent and opportunity to bounce back. Our projection may be on the optimistic end, but even if you downgrade it a bit, there is profit potential as you can get Romero next to nothing in most drafts due to the atrocious 2012 numbers. I'm not suggesting making Romero a rock in your draft day plans, but there is still value in a durable SP (125 starts the past 4 seasons) who is in his prime and has two solid seasons in the past three. Don't overspend here, but don't neglect either.
Opportunity for Santos?
Sergio Santos RP - At the moment, closer Casey Janssen is dealing with a shoulder issue. It doesn't project to be a big deal, and he could be ready for the opener. However, if Janssen were to miss any time, Santos would be the guy to step in, and if he's successful I wouldn't be surprised if he kept the role. Last offseason, the Jays traded for Santos with the idea that he could be their closer for the next few years. It didn't quite work out right away as Santos struggled out of the gate before finding the DL at the end of April. He wouldn't return. When Santos is healthy (aside from last year's injury, he is currently dealing with a triceps issue), though, he has the skills to be a very good closer. In his last full season (with the White Sox) he posted a 2.69 xFIP thanks to a superb 35.4 K% and solid 3.17 K/BB ratio. On top of all that he had a GB% of 50%, making him less homer prone than Janssen (42.5 K%) who gave up some of his ground ball ability to increase his K's. Janssen is probably safer due to his low walk rates, but Santos has the GB/K combination to be potentially dominant and is someone to target at the end of drafts if Janssen's health status is still up in the air.
Kansas City Royals
Me and Lorenzo Rollin in a Benzo
Lorenzo Cain OF - Cain was a sleeper last year whose name picked up steam as the draft season wore on, but early season injuries derailed him. This year he doesn't carry as much value for a couple of reasons. First of all, Cain is expected to hit towards the bottom of the Royals' lineup. With on base machines Jeff Franceour (.287 OBP in '12) and Mike Moustakas (.296) projected to hit in front of Cain and the powerful Chris Getz (career .059 ISO) projected to hit behind him, the RS and RBI opportunities won't exactly be pouring in. Secondly, Cain displayed some troubling signs in regards to his plate discipline. He struck out 23.1% of the time, posting just a .27 EYE. The good news is Cain has a decent power-speed combo that will give him value in all leagues even if the upside is lacking. He was 10-10 in steal opportunities last year and in 2011 he went 16-16 in 128 games at AAA. Look for Cain to go 15-20 in HR-SB which is definitely useful, but a so-so batting average and likely low RS-RBI totals cap his upside.
What to Expect Out of Frenchy
Jeff Francoeur OF - After one of the best seasons of his career, Francoeur saw a huge production drop across the board: 50 point average drop, -4 homers, -19 RS, -38 RBI's, -18 SB. In other words, he was a BUST. There's no dancing around it, Francoeur is a high volatility player. He swings at everything, posting chase rates of over 40% in 3 straight seasons. I think this approach makes him difficult to predict. I think there are probably better late round bets to make as a closer look at Francoeur's underlying skills reveals perhaps a little more reason for concern than just a down season for a free swinger. His power, which depends on generating loft (just career 10.1 HR/FB rate), was sapped by a 45% GB rate, Francoeur's highest since 2006. I'm also a little baffled by Francoeur continuing to consistently swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, yet he has swung at pitches in the strike zone less and less, setting career lows in that regard two straight seasons.
Tampa Bay Rays
Post Hype Sleeper
Matt Moore SP - Matt Moore entered 2012 with a ton of fanfare, but he was a little disappointing, posting a 3.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Heading into 2013, I am treating that stat line as a floor for a variety of reasons. First of all, I envision Moore improving both his K and BB rates which would go a long ways towards success. He struck out 23.1% of the batters he faced, which is good (3.3 percentage points better than the league average), but this is a guy who struck out around 34% of the batters he faced in the Minor Leagues. I strongly suspect he will be over a K an inning this year and possibly well over it. Secondly, I'll admit when I sat down to write this I expected Moore's ERA/WHIP from 2012 to have been higher. I think that's the perception we have when a guy starts off slow - to remember the start more than the finish. Moore actually posted a 3.01 second half ERA with a 24.3 K% and 9.5 BB% compared to a first half ERA of 4.42 with a 22.1 K% and 11.5 BB%. And the second half numbers were not posted by dominating sub-par competition in September as he actually struggled in that month (facing 3 playoff teams and another in playoff contention). The final reason I'm optimistic about Moore improving is his odd reverse splits from 2012. Moore posted a 5.14xFIP against left-handed batters, striking them out just 16.8% of the time. It seems unlikely to me that a pitcher with the potential to be as dominant as Moore would continue to struggle so much against same handed batters, even if the reverse splits are not a complete fluke. Moore had a low BABIP and HR/FB rate in 2012, but I'm not too concerned about regression here. Tropicana Field is a pitcher's park, and the Rays generally have strong defenses. Also, Moore is a fly ball pitcher (42.9 FB%) which leads to a low BABIP, especially considering that the percentage of Moore's fly balls that were pop ups (14.3%) was the 6th best rate among qualified starting pitchers. Moore also induced swing and misses at pitches in the strike zone 19% of the time, which is more than 6 percentage points better than the league average. This is another stat that has recently been shown to correlate with low BABIP's (hat tip to fellow analyst Drew Dinkmeyer for the link): http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sloan-analytics-rosenheck-on-babip/. I think it's pretty clear from this blurb that I am "all-in" on Matt Moore. Our projection of a 3.41 ERA, 14 wins, 1.25 WHIP and 200 K's shows growth and probably settles in near Moore's most likely outcome for the year, but I think there's still incredible upside beyond it (3 ERA, 225 K's).
Keep Your Eye On...
Jeff Niemann SP - If Niemann (the subject of continued trade rumors) stays put in Tampa, he could make for a good late round flier (assuming he makes the rotation). Niemann does not have the requisite upside to warrant investing too much in the injury prone 30 YO, but that likely won't be necessary. For example, Niemann is currently the 94th SP off of the board in NFBC drafts; Fantistics has him ranked 57th. In 8 starts last year, Niemann showed a lot of promise, posting a 3.08 ERA that was in line with the skills he was displaying (2.83 K/BB ratio, 51.4 GB%, 3.09 FIP). At his worst skills wise, Niemann is a league average pitcher pitching in front of a good defense in a pitcher's park. At his best (last year), he has those advantages and is above average in all 3 major skill stats: K%, BB% and GB%. He's definitely a name to keep in mind when the SP's start thinning out.
Around the League
Bryce Harper OF (WAS) - Fellow analyst Drew Dinkmeyer was telling me the other day that he believes Harper finishes in the top 20 of all hitters - easily. Looking at Harper's profile it's easy to see the reasons for optimism. Let's start with two batted ball stats. Harper posted a 22.5 LD% and a 16.2 HR/FB%. It's quite amazing the amount of solid, consistent and powerful contact that Harper possessed out of the gate. He backed it up with just enough patience (9.4 BB%) to keep pitchers honest and just enough contact rate (80%) to keep the average from dipping too much. So we've got a guy who at age 19 showed enough plate discipline to stabilize things and showed that he absolutely tears the cover off the ball. The main reason for optimism stems from Harper's 16.2 HR/FB rate. That number is very legitimate (and long term we may come to view it as one of Harper's lower marks of his career) considering Harper graded out as an 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. Now, if he can incrementally improve on that and his loft, which is going to happen, it's just a matter of when, Harper can approach 30 homers. You put him third in a decent lineup with that power and speed (should steal 20) and you have an elite player.
Wilin Rosario C (COL) - Our projection for Rosario is the result of his outstanding power. He posted a .260 ISO last year, which easily led all catchers with at least 300 PA. He posted an incredible 25.5 HR/FB rate. Coors certainly helped but Rosario still hit 10 homers in 57 road games. I am a little more bearish than our projections software, though, just because I think there is some risk with Rosario despite the potential. His EYE was bad at .25, and he lacked the patience I like to see out of power hitters (5.9 walk rate), not that that is an absolute must. Furthering that point, he swung at 38.4% of pitches outside of the strike zone, more than 8 percentage points higher than the league average. If Rosario is able to just maintain his plate discipline stats, he should have no problem reaching our projection, but I am personally a little concerned that pitchers will make an even larger point to get Rosario to chase this year, which could lead to a decrease in both HR/FB rate and contact rate.
Adrian Gonzalez 1B (LAD) - I'm high on a bounce back season for Adrian Gonzalez. Each of the past two years he has posted disappointing HR totals, averaging just 22.5 homers after hitting 30 or more for four straight seasons. Two years ago the culprit was an abnormally high GB rate (46.7%). Last year, Gonzalez corrected that posting a GB rate below his career average. Rather, the 2012 power outage could be directly traced back to a 9.6 HR/FB rate. Gonzalez's career HR/FB rate is 16%, and he equaled or bettered that mark in four straight seasons prior to last year. Gonzalez started to show a return to form in the second half of last year (12 HR in 290 at bats compared to 6 in 339 over the first half), and I think we see both his loft (GB rate) and raw power (HR/FB rate) return to normal, giving the 30-31 YO a shot at one more 30 HR season.
Chris Perez RP (CLE) - According to Rotoworld, Chris Perez may begin a throwing program this Sunday. Reading between the lines, it sounds to me as if Perez is doubtful for Opening Day, which would leave closing duties in the capable hands of Vinny Pestano (2.50 career ERA). Perez answered a lot of his critics (myself included) last season by flashing some solid peripheral stats to go with his good surface stats. He actually improved quite dramatically skill wise with the GB rate increasing 12 percentage points and the K/BB ratio moving from 1.50 to 3.69.
Brett Lawrie 3B (TOR) - Lawrie was forced to drop out of the World Baseball Classic as he hurt his rib cage in an exhibition game. It sounds as if he is still expected to be ready for Opening Day but continue to monitor the situation as the draft season progresses. Check out my blurbs from last to week to get my thoughts on Lawrie as a post hype sleeper.
Carl Crawford OF (LAD) - As our projections software notes, we like Crawford to bounce back from his injury marred 2012 year and his ability to score a lot of runs hitting in front of Kemp, Gonzalez and Ramirez. At 31 YO it's not time yet to throw in the towel on Crawford. However, Crawford needs to get healthy. His elbow is still giving him problems, and it's likely he will open the season on the DL. Make sure you update the projections software as updates are made daily; we've dropped Crawford's expected at bats to 485.
Paul Goldschmidt 1B (ARZ) - The Fantistics projection software has Goldschmidt ranked as a top 5 1B heading into 2013. The optimism is a result of various factors working together. Goldschmidt is in his prime (25 YO), in a hitter's park, has a double digit walk rate, saw improvements in his K rate, makes great contact (23.9 LD%) and has some upside in his HR/FB% (14.2%). He will also swipe you 15 bases which is a rare commodity for a 1B. The only concern here is some scouts (Keith Law comes to mind) feel that Goldschmidt is something of a platoon bat (.442 wOBA against LHP, .322 wOBA against RHP), but the rest of the profile looks so solid to me that I am not reserving my optimism.
Aaron Hicks OF (MIN) - Hicks homered 3 times yesterday. I don't put a lot of stock into Spring Training stats, so I'm not by any means going nuts over this, but if Hicks keeps hitting he could win the Twins' CF job out of Spring Training. Hicks has always had the tools that scouts loved but has had trouble putting them together, and thus he is only ranked 37th on our Top 50 Hitting Prospects (check out our Prospect Central!). Hicks has good speed (stole 32 in 129 games last year at AA) and has shown promising walk rates in the Minors. However, his power has been a bit sporadic and some think his contact rate will be poor in the Majors, especially initially as he is pretty raw. Still, keep any eye on him as his 30-40 SB potential over 600 PA's (as noted in our projections software) has him worth drafting in deep mixed leagues and AL only leagues.
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