Justin Maxwell (OF - HOU): Maxwell has become a popular sleeper pick due to his intriguing power-speed combination and his solidified playing time in the Astros OF. On Sunday night he immediately rewarded those who had faith by going 2-3 with 2 Runs, 2 RBI's, a BB, and 2 3B's. Maxwell had the benefit of getting all of his AB's against LHP which he's been competent against in his career, hitting .243/.374/.448 compared to a .201/.265/.414 line against RHP. He figures to challenge 25 HR's and 10 SB's in a full-time role this season but it will likely come with plenty of strikeouts (career 32.2% K Rate) and a drag on the batting average. Sunday night was a great start for Maxwell's 2013 season, but a matchup against a LHP who struggles to strike out RHB's was an ideal scenario for Maxwell owners. Keep your expectations tempered for the 29 year old OF. A .235-60-20-65-10 line still seems like a fair expectation for the Astros OF.
Matt Harrison (SP - TEX): While Bud Norris' start on opening night was everything that encompasses Bud Norris, Matt Harrison's first start was almost the exact opposite. Harrison has had success as a ground-ball machine that pitches to contact and avoids walks. On Sunday night he walked 12% of the batters he faced (6.7% BB% last year) and kept just 38.5% of the batted balls on the ground (49% last year). On the plus side Harrison struck out a whopping 36% of batters faced which is almost 2.5 times more than the 15.3% rate last year. The Astros have a lot of swing and miss guys so the enhanced strikeout rate isn't a large surprise in this matchup, but the reduced GB Rate shows just how little a margin for error Harrison works with. Harrison, even in his best years, has been slightly above league average in preventing base-runners but he keeps his ERA down by limiting extra base hits and when the ball is up things can go poorly in a hurry. Given Harrison's xFIP has been around 4.00 the last 2 years, we're expecting some natural regression this year which would result in a significant deterioration in his value which was inflated by consecutive years with a sub-3.40 ERA.
Jesus Montero (C - SEA): I haven't had much of a chance to tout one of my favorite breakout candidates this year at the catcher position, so let's talk a bit about Jesus Montero. By all accounts Montero's first full season in the big leagues was a disappointment last year bordering on a disaster. Montero posted a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.400 Slugging %. The only thing that saved him from a fantasy perspective was playing time in the middle of a brutal Mariners lineup. A look at the indicators doesn't reveal much room for optimism as Montero chased nearly 40% of pitches outside the zone and swung through over 10% of the pitches thrown his way. However, I remain optimistic. After striking out in 23% of his PA's in the 1st half Montero cut it down to just under 13% in the 2nd half. Furthermore I don't think there's a hitter in the Mariners lineup that benefits from the fences moving in than Montero. When he was first called up Montero's opposite field approach was one of the things that separated him amongst other top prospects. In his Yankees debut he hit .417/.417/1.167 in an extremely small sample size when hitting to the opposite field (12 AB's). For the Mariners last year Montero ht .246/.241/.342 to the opposite field and at times his approach looked compromised by the deep alleys in right center field. With the fences being moved in this year I expect Montero's all-field approach to improve along with a contact rate more in line with the 2nd half. I'm anticipating a big breakthrough season for the 23-year-old who should also benefit from fewer AB's in the DH role where he hit .226/.265/.309 in 321 PA's last season.
David Phelps (SP - NYY): The 5th starter competition between David Phelps and Ivan Nova will extend into the regular season as the Yankees placed Phil Hughes on the DL to start the season. Phelps did his part to extend the competition by striking out 27 in 28 spring innings and limiting the long-ball to just 2 HR's allowed. HR's and BB's have largely been the issue in Phelps major league career as his near 40% FB Rate plays poorly in Yankee Stadium. It's been a limited major league experience, just under 100 innings, but Phelps minor league numbers are pretty compelling. Operating primarily as a starter in the minors Phelps has posted a 2.51 ERA, 1.17 WHIP while posting a strong 2.0 BB/9 and 0.54 HR/9. We'll cover Nova in a separate blurb but both SP's have intriguing enough peripherals that the winner of the competition once Hughes is healthy will hold some deep league value. The ERA will play up in a tough pitching environment in Yankee Stadium but the strikeout potential and strong command track record suggest some strong upside for deep leaguers.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF - BOS): The Red Sox made it official on Sunday, announcing that rookie OF Jackie Bradley JR had made the team. The young OF hit .419/.507/.613 this spring with remarkable plate discipline (10 K's, 10 BB's in 62 AB's) and was consistently the Red Sox best player. Heading into the season the Red Sox will bat Bradley lower in the order to take some pressure off of him and this will likely serve as an audition for more future playing time with David Ortiz on the disabled list. Bradley enters the season with just 270 PA's above high A and in those PA's he posted a modest .809 OPS. His BB Rates have always been strong in the minors, but the power-speed combo might not be as fantasy friendly as many hope. Bradley stole 24 bases across two levels last season but hit just 9 HR's. Fenway Park enhances power but more in the form of 2B's than HR's and as a result it's hard to see Bradley topping 15 HR's in his debut. He also carries some roster risk when David Ortiz returns. In 12-team leagues and deeper, Bradley holds value in the short run, but expectations should be tempered for the young player. I've described him on twitter as "Daniel Nava" with speed in the immediate and the Nava/Gomes platoon will be the direct competitor to long-term playing time for Bradley (assuming Ortiz returns with health).
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