Storylines Out of Angels' Camp
Trout's Extra Weight Leading to Extra Concerns?
The short answer: hecks no! Reports out of Angels' camp have Trout at 241 lbs., 15 more than where he was for most of last year. What many forget is that Trout fell ill during spring training last year and lost 20+ lbs., delaying his 2012 debut and probably costing the Angels' dearly. Moreover, other reports have Trout putting on the weight in order to add a few more lbs. of muscle, as it's common to put on weight and then cut it into muscle. Either way, Trout is off to a fast start this spring, going 2 for 4 with a pair of BB's in early action. We're projecting him to produce numbers that are very similar to last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him produce like the #1 fantasy player this season. The talk of a sophomore slump, while interesting and not without examples, tends to forget that Trout had 135 AB's in 2011 where he went .220/.281/.390. He made his adjustments throughout 2012 to the final tune of .326/.399/.564, improving his BB rate by 3.8% along the way. If he falls to you early in drafts, don't let talk of sophomore slump or extra weight fool you.
Mike Scioscia and The Closer Label
Mr. Scioscia frustrated fantasy owners last year by never really naming a full-time closer, and even when Frieri emerged, he would mix-and-match with the lefty Scott Downs (when healthy). Now, with Ryan Madson all but assured to be on the DL for the better part of April, many around the fantasy world have assumed that Frieri would get dibs on the role. But, just yesterday Scioscia said that Frieri is only "a candidate" and "we have some depth in the back end of our 'pen." With Sean Burnett, Downs, and Kevin Jepsen, he may have a point. Frieri, while dominate at times last year with a 13.36 K/9 rate, also struggled most of the year with command to the tune of a 4.09 BB/9 rate, and hit a speed-bump towards the end of the year after an impressive start to his Angels career. Reports out of Angels' camp have Frieri working on a cutter to give hitters a different look. If he can harness that and improve his BB rate, Scioscia would find it mighty difficult to run anyone else out there in the 9th. Or would he? With all of these concerns and Ryan Madson's imminent return, Frieri is a nice fantasy option...but one that will more than likely cost more than he'll return for 2013.
Storylines Out of Pirates' Camp
The Outfield Watch, Continued
Jose Tabata is a player I'm watching closely this spring. While spring stats don't usually mean a heck of a lot, in some rare cases, they do. They can especially mean something when a player is coming back from an injury-riddled campaign, has tweaked his approach during the off-season, or is battling for a position. In Tabata's case, all three apply. Tabata is off to a fast start, going 3 for 6 with a HR and a pair of doubles during his first week of spring action. The Pirates are invested in him (over $13 million due through 2016, which is like Josh Hamilton money for the Pirates). While the Pirates' brass has recently stated that it wants Starling Marte to earn the leadoff position this season, his 4.4 BB%, 27.5%, and 34.8% swing rate at pitches outside the zone a year ago raise red flags. I do like the fact that Marte had 13 BB's to 23 K's in the Dominican Winter League, but, until I see it against the big boys, I'm skeptical that he won't suffer through some growing pains this year.
The Prospect Watch, Continued
Gerrit Cole, the Pirates top prospect, made his spring debut on Wednesday, tossing two innings of 1 run ball, allowing 1 hit and 1 BB, with 1K. What impresses most about how Cole is going about his business this spring is, despite his elite velocity pushing the upper 90s, his focus on keeping hitters off balance. "The last pitch for which I got paid on velocity was like two years ago, for the draft...that's the last time you get paid for speed." Besides excellent grammar, Cole looks to be on the fast track to Pittsburgh. Did I mention his 1.42 groundball-to-fly-ball rate, .230 avg. against, and 136 K's vs. 45 BB's in 132 innings last year? He'll open the year in AAA, but with all of the issues at the back end of the Pirates rotation, look for him to be up in June for good.
Spring Hopes and Fantasy Expectations
Javier Vazquez (SP-FA): Black Holes and Revelations! (Thanks Muse...now that song is stuck in my head). Vazquez announced that he won't pitch for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic and is likely out for the 2013 season after feeling discomfort stemming from knee surgery. He was being draft in some deep leagues in the hopes of a return to the mound and to the NL, but that appears highly unlikely after this announcement. While he's only 36 and his last season in 2011 for the Marlins produced 192+ quality innings with a 3.69 ERA, a 3.87 xFIP, and a 7.5 K/9 rate to go along with a 2.34 BB/rate, his comeback looks to be on hold. Avoid him in all formats.
Bobby Parnell (RP-NYM): With Frank Francisco still mending an injured pitching elbow, Bobby Parnell continues to look impressive this spring. He has thrown two scoreless innings so far, sporting the knuckle-curve that Jason Isringhausen taught him towards the end of last season. During the season's final two months, Parnell gave up only 1 earned run in 15 innings while converting all three of his save chances. The big knock on Parnell has been his control, but he lowered his walk rate from 4.10 BB/9 in 2011 to 2.62 BB/9 in 2012. Even if Francisco returns in early April, Parnell may never relinquish the job and could be a great fallback option for saves.
Zach Wheeler (SP-NYM): After throwing two scoreless innings over the weekend, the Mets top prospect had his start scratched on Wednesday due to a right oblique strain that he felt after taking BP. The Mets are calling it a precautionary move at this point, but oblique injuries can be tricky, so keep your eyes on this one. Wheeler had 148 K's to 59 BB's in 149 innings last year in AA and AAA, and many scouts see him as one of the most advanced pitchers in the minors. With the Mets' rotation being anything but stable, he could have an important impact in fantasy this year provided he stays healthy.
Nick Castellanos (OF-DET): The Tigers are so committed to Castellanos learning how to play the outfield that they won't even let him play third while Miguel Cabrera goes to the World Baseball Classic. Now whether or not that commitment leads to him breaking camp is a different matter. Castellanos is doing all he can to leapfrog Avisail Garcia as next in line behind Andy Dirks for the starting left field job, as he's 3 for 6 so far with 3 BB's and 2 K's. Castellanos destroyed high A to the tune of .405/.461/.553, but struggled a bit in AA with .264/.296/.382. I see him starting the year with some seasoning in the minors, but he'll be next in line behind Dirks and should be up by mid-season.
Jemile Weeks (2B-OAK): Weeks had quite the bizarre 2012. His BB-rate increased from 4.8% to 9.8% and his K-rate decreased from 14.2% to 13.7% from 2011, yet his OPS+ dipped from 110 to a ridiculous 71 (league average is 100!). In looking at his batted ball profile, we can see an alarming increase in ground ball rate (from 39.8% to 49.5%) and a significant decrease in line-drive rate (from 23.3% to 18.8%). In other words, the league figured him out and was able to induce weak contact (although a .256 BABIP was a bit on the unfortunate side). Weeks is a cerebral player, and his professional track record suggests that he'll be able to adjust. Although the A's infield is crowded, his spring is off to a great start, as he's gone 5 for 8 with a homer this past week. Given the unknowns and injury risks in the A's infield, look for Weeks to play a significant role in fantasy this year at a thin position.
Jim Henderson (RP-MIL): The Brewers' setup man has been working on a changeup in order to rectify his issues against lefties: they hit .294/.381/.353 against him last year as opposed to the .177/.239/.258 righties put up against him. While John Axford has the job, don't forget about his 9 blown saves from last year or his 5.06 BB/9 rate. With the Brewers having a solid lineup and expecting to contend for a wildcard spot, if Axford struggles early, don't be surprised to see Henderson back in the role he held for a brief time last year.
Stephen Pryor (RP-SEA): Beginning his bid to build off of a strong 2012 campaign, the imposing reliever tossed a scoreless inning of relief on Wednesday. In 26+ innings last year in the show, Pryor struck out an impressive 10.57 batters per 9, but also walked 5.09, following a similar trend of high K, high BB rates from his minor league days. His fastball averaged 96.2 MPH, and Pryor has hit triple digits. While I like most of the moves Seattle made in the offseason and think they could hang around the playoff race into the summer, they likely don't have enough firepower to stay with LAA, TEX, and OAK. Incumbent closer Tom Wilhelmsen could be traded towards the deadline. If so, Pryor could take over. He makes a great handcuff and speculative pick later in drafts.
Alejandro De Aza (OF-CHW): 2012 was a tumultuous season for De Aza, which saw him claim the leadoff spot, injury his oblique, go in a mid-season slump, lose playing time to DeWayne Wise, and then ride a swing-change into a strong September finish. His final line of .281/.349/.410 with 26 SB's and 81 runs is easily attainable in 2013 with his health in tact and his spot atop the lineup secured. De Aza will be representing the Dominican Republic in the WBC...he'd do well representing your team as a 4th OF option.
Brett Gardner (OF-NYY): The Yankees' outfielder is off to a hot start, going 5 for 8 in early spring action. More importantly, he looks to be 100% healthy and Joe Girardi has been experimenting with him in the leadoff position. In his healthy 2011 campaign, Gardner stole 49 bases, scored 87 runs, and walked 10.2% of the time. With the Yankees' injury situations, pencil him in for more AB's. And if we see him in the leadoff spot more often, you can expect the runs to push the century mark. With his 82% career success rate on the base-paths, the green light will be there, so he should swipe plenty of bags. His value continues to climb during the spring, so grab him at a discount while you can.
Mark Montgomery (RP-NYY): Drafted by the Yankees in 2011, Montgomery has been on the fast track with what many scouts call the best slider in the minors. In 2012 in A+ and AA, Montgomery compiled 99 K's against 22 BB's, allowing only 1 HR and 11 ER's in 64+ innings. After a minor back issue slowed him down to begin the spring, Montgomery threw a scoreless inning in his first spring action on Wednesday. The Yankees have had him on the fast-track, and I don't see any reason why they would slow his progression now. Look for him to be up by mid-season raking up the K's, vulturing a few wins, and maybe even sneaking in a couple of saves. If you're in a keeper or dynasty league, put him on your list for prospects to watch.
Josh Fields (RP-HOU): The Rule 5 pick from the Red Sox is a deep sleeper candidate for saves in the Houston pen. While Jose Veras is the favorite, his 5.37 BB/9 rate and 3.84 xFIP from 2011 raise a few red flags. Step in Josh Fields. The Astros have incentives to keep him on the MLB roster so as to avoid having to compensate the Red Sox, and the front office already has stated that he will compete for a spot in the back end of the pen. Across AA and AAA last year, Fields racked up 12 saves while boasting a 2.01 ERA and 77 K's to 18 BB's in 58+ innings. While he struggled some in the Dominican Winter League, he looked strong in his spring debut. He's definitely worth a late-round flier...the rebuilding Astros will give him a long look.
Brandon McCarthy (SP-ARI): McCarthy took the mound on Wednesday for the first time since that ugly line drive fractured his skull in September. The results were very solid with 4 K's, 3 Hits, and 1 ER in 2 innings of work. While this is a nice story and you have to be impressed with the quick comeback after such a complicated surgery, he may be a bit overvalued in fantasy circles in 2013. While his ERA was a solid 3.24, his xFIP stood at 4.23 a year ago. And while he 1.95 BB/9 rate is reason to smile, his 5.92 K/9 will temper the optimism. Add this with the fact that McCarthy has never thrown more than 170 innings in a season and he's only a risky #5 in your rotation.
