The Pirates Outfield
So we know Andrew McCutchen is a fantasy beast. And then? Many are assuming that Starling Marte is going to start in LF and Travis Snyder in RF for the Bucs in 2013. While it sure looks as though they will begin the season there, I see significant risk with them. Starling Marte has become a bit of a fantasy darling, and while he does have potential five-tool talent and should continue to develop, I see his 2013 fantasy price as too high. He had a 27.5% K rate and 4.4% BB rate last year in 167 AB's in the show, numbers that are quite similar to what he put up in the minor leagues. If he slumps, he could even see his playing time cut or even be sent down for work on pitch recognition. And with Travis Snyder, you have a player who for either performance or injury reasons has never had more than 319 plate appearances in a season and a player who posted a .652 OPS in 50 games with the Bucs last year. So what does this mean? Jose Tabata could re-emerge out of the doghouse and into more playing time. Reports suggest he dropped 15 lbs in the offseason, admitted his mistakes to the front office, and is looking for redemption. After posting an .868 OPS in September, the 24-year-old is one to watch this spring and could be a sneaky add in deep leagues.
The Enigma That Is James McDonald
Pitchers who slump in the second half normally raise concerns for the following year. And then there's James McDonald, who had the slumps of all slumps: his ERA went from a 2.37 to 7.52, his whip from .97 to 1.79, and his K/BB rate from over 3:1 to less than 1:5: 1 from before to after the all-star break. Reports coming out of camp suggest McDonald had physical issues (non-pitching arm issues) and confidence issues that intertwined to hamper him down the stretch. In looking at his game log, his downward spiral coincided with a spike in his pitch counts--the 120-pitch performance against Minnesota on June 21st stands out. With these health revelations and a #3 spot in the rotation secured (nice to have Francisco Liriano, Jonathan Sanchez, and Jeff Karstens in your rearviewmirror) I see a potential bargain on draft day.
Pirates' Spring Impressions
With Francisco Liriano injured, Jonathan Sanchez being Jonathan Sanchez, Charlie Morton rehabbing, Jeff Locke an untested commodity, and Jeff Karstens slowed with a biceps tendinitis, the back end of the Pirates rotation is a bit murky for the early part of the year and beyond. But I have my eyes on two starters who could make a significant impact in fantasy this year: Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. Cole is further advanced in the Pirates eyes and likely will get the first shot should the 4 and 5 spots not settle themselves by June. Cole pitched in three different levels in 2012, ascending all the way to AAA for a start. His 3:1 KK/BB ratio and 1.42 groundball/flyball ratio suggest he's ready for the show. And don't sleep on Taillon, who isn't far behind. Taillon pitched across two different levels, ascending to AA for three starts where he flat out dominated with a 18:1 KK/BB ratio after a 3:1 ratio in A ball. While still learning to use all of this pitches and improving his already solid 1.05 groundball/flyball rate, I see Taillon contributing this year as well. They'll be given a long look in camp, and if they impress, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in Pittsburgh by the all-star break.
The Enigma That Is Peter Bourjos
After Torii Hunter and Kendrys Morales were shipped during the offseason, many around baseball looked for the Angels to give Peter Bourjos the starting CF job in 2013. However, while he may be the early favorite, Mike Scioscia recently said that he may mix and match his outfield and that Bourjos isn't guaranteed full-time AB's and is only "in the mix". Even with ample playing time, Bourjos is a risky option. While his speed is definitely legit, Bourjos' "breakout" 2011 in the show included a 5.8% BB rate and a 22.5% K rate, numbers not too far off from his minor league days. While his career .293 minor league AVG suggests he could be an asset in that category, the friendly parks of the CAL league could have had something to do with that (a phenomenon I call "Californinflation"). His 2013 fantasy value will hinge upon how much he plays and where he bats in the lineup. How he progresses with impressing Mike Scioscia in the spring is crucial to shaping his value, and until his role is clarified, buyer beware.
Angels' Closer Battle: Frieri vs. Madson (and His Elbow)
This is one of the most important pre-season battles with fantasy implications. With the Angels expected to win a bunch of games, there will be plenty of save chances to go around. News out of camp had Ryan Madson play catch from 50 feet on Wednesday without any reported setbacks, so it's conceivable if all breaks perfectly right that he could be the opening day closer. However, all indications out of LA (or is it Anaheim?) suggest Frieri to be the closer on opening day and through at least April. Frieri was 23 for 26 in save chances last year with a 2.32 ERA, a .98 WHIP, and a 13.36 K/9 rate. Those are sexy closer numbers indeed. However, the 4.09 BB/9 rate is still a concern moving forward and he'll have to continue shaving points from that number to keep the job. Ryan Madson dominated in 2011 as the Phillies closer, and the Angels' brass wants him to claim the closer role at some point in 2013 as his works his way back from TJ surgery. Fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on Frieri's control and Madson's health this spring as they evaluate their fantasy prospects. The smart money is on Frieri to begin the year as closer and Madson to take the reigns in May or June.
Shelby Miller (SP-STL). Miller was scratched from his side session on Wednesday after feeling discomfort in his right shoulder. This looks like it will push his spring debut back indefinitely so take a wait-and-see approach for the time being. It could turn out to be nothing but normal soreness or something more serious, so this is a situation worth monitoring, especially given the hype and commensurate price tag. Miller's mid-90's fastball and plus curve have led to a K/9 rate of over 10 in his minor league career, and his didn't disappoint during his cup of coffee last year with a 16:4 KK:BB ratio and only 2 ER's in 13 and 2/3 innings. He is still on track to break camp in the rotation and the spot previously vacated by Chris Carpenter is his...if he's healthy.
Phil Hughes (SP-NYY). After feeling discomfort in his back during team drills, Phil Hughes underwent an MRI. According to team doctors, the results show a bulging disk in the starter's upper-back and Hughes has been shut down for two weeks. This is troublesome news, as Hughes is carrying a lot of momentum from last year when he posted a 7.76 K/9 rate and a career best 2.16 BB/9 rate in 191+ innings thank in large part to the tutelage from Andy Pettite. However, the workload was also a career high, and Hughes has proven quite fragile during his career. His regular season status isn't impacted yet, but this definitely merits fantasy owners' attention. Besides the words "Dr. James Andrews", "back injury" ranks right up there with things you don't want to hear uttered next to your pitcher's name, as it could snowball into other problems.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF-MIA). Ouch! Giancarlo Stanton was plunked in the helmet by a Jose Fernandez fastball during a simulated game on Wednesday and has a bruise on the back of his neck. Preliminary tests came back clear, but he is undergoing further concussion tests after seeing "grayness and fuzziness" on the outside of his eyes. Three things could keep Stanton from earning his high fantasy price tag in 2013: his 2012 baggage to the tune of a 28.5 K% and his troublesome knee-injury, and the potentially woeful Marlins lineup limiting his run production (Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco are slated to bat 1-2...gulp!). While his power potential is immense, these concerns lead me to believe he is a bit overvalued in 2013. Maybe he should change his name back to Mike?
Lance Berkman (1B/DH-TEX). The veteran is day-to-day after feeling some discomfort in his right calf during a workout on Wednesday. Sadly, given his age (37) and recent health record (he played 32 games in 2012) this is likely going to be a common occurrence for sir Lance-a-lot this year. Plus, he's going to face constant competition for AB's, with Mike Moreland, Mike Olt, Leonys Martin, Chris Gentry, David Murphy, and Jurickson Profar all vying for playing time. If a few of these guys get hot and Berkman either gets cold with the bat or with his health, there could be a domino effect that eats at his fantasy value. There is no denying that when on the field the man can hit, as he posted an impressive .959 OPS in 2011 and an .825 OPS in limited time in 2012. However, while he is a nice late-round option in 5x5 and daily leagues, head-to-head players in weekly leagues beware.
Albert Pujols (1B-LAA). The Angels are taking a cautious approach with Pujols, who is coming off minor knee surgery in the fall. He's unlikely to play in games before mid-March, so while he's still on track to start on opening day, it isn't a slam-dunk. Pujols is going in the early-to-mid first round in many fantasy drafts, with owners expecting him to repeat his 2011 numbers. While he rebounded nicely after an abysmal start to 2012, his K% increased by 1.7% and his BB% decreased by 2.7% from the first to the second half. And while Josh Hamilton's presence will be a plus, I'd temper expectations just a bit, paying for something in between his 2011 and 2012 numbers.
Martin Prado (3B-ARI). Prado says his left hand is feeling better after he was plunked earlier in the week. This looks like only a minor setback, and Prado is on track to be a major fantasy contributor this season. Fantasy owners are banking on the Chase Field bump, and with a park factor of 112 (as compared to Turner's Field's 97) why not? Prado was 15th in all of baseball in WAR last year, and with him being the focal point of Arizona, look for him to improve upon his 10 HR / 17 SB season from a year ago while maintaining a .300 AVG.
Everth Cabrera (SS-SD). Cabrera's name has surfaced in relation to the Biogenesis clinic PED scandal. This brings up a relatively new yet underrated question in fantasy: what do we do with players under suspicion, facing suspension, or who are suspended in connection with PED use? Players can be suspended without a failed drug test under MLB's drug testing policy, so any player named could theoretically take a games played (not to mention performance) hit. Cabrera did lead to national league in steals with 44 last year, but also hit .246 and struck out 110 times against 43 walks, making him a bit of a one-trick pony. With Jedd Gyorko's imminent ascension, the Padres could have a crowded infield. This news definitely doesn't help his cause.
Aaron Hicks (OF-MIN). According to multiple reports out of Minnesota, Ron Gardenhire has thrown Hicks' name into the mix for the starting centerfielder's job. Hicks, a former highly-touted prospect, had a breakout year last year in AA, hitting 13 HR's, with 32 SB's, a .286 AVG, and a respectable 79 BB to 116 K in 129 games. With an intense battle heating up between Hicks, Darin Mastroianni, and Joe Benson, Hicks appears to be catching the eye of the Twins' brass. If you miss out on Wil Myers, Hicks could be a nice consolation prize.
A.J. Burnett (SP-PIT). Burnett is scheduled to get the opening day nod for the first time in his 15-year career. The righty is coming off his best season since 2008, as he posted a stellar 16-10 record in 202+ innings to go with 8 K/9 rate and a surprisingly low 2.76 BB/9 rate in 2012. With his xFIP of 3.40 to go along with his ERA of 3.51 and a realistic BABIP of .294, Burnett appears to have settled in nicely in the Burgh. From where he's going in drafts, he could provide great value to fantasy owners in 2013.
Nick Markakis (OF-BAL). Markakis is getting tests done for acid reflux to make sure it isn't something serious like an ulcer. This appears to be nothing major, and Markakis is on track for opening day. He had a fairly disappointing 2012, as he was limited to 104 games. He still put up a solid .298 AVG, and he did see a small spike in his homerun rate with 13 in 420 AB's, but only stole 1 base. While a solid player to round out your outfield, Markakis' 2008 and 2009 seasons appear to be still in the minds of fantasy owners, keeping his value a bit above where it should be.
Clay Buchholz (SP-BOS). Buchholz had a "very good BP session," yesterday according to John Farrel. The righty is working his way back from a hamstring issue that hampered him during the early part of camp. Another injury for Buchholz is something fantasy owners do not want to hear, as he's been plagued by a number of ailments thanks in large part to his violent delivery. He had a respectable 2012 campaign with a 4.56 ERA, but his 129 K and 64 BB numbers should alert owners that a repeat of 2010 is unlikely.
