Dodgers' fifth starter
Ted Lilly takes the hill on Thursday for his spring debut, and he's apparently still in competition with three other guys - Chris Capuano, Chad Billingsley, and Aaron Harang. Billingsley allowed two runs on five hits over two innings in his spring debut, thought he also didn't walk a batter. He's reported that the elbow feels fine, and the team is confident enough now that he's on the same program as their other pitchers. They seem to clearly want him to win the spot. In that scenario, Capuano probably gets traded, Harang is shipped to the pen, and Lilly is either traded or cut loose outright.
Dodgers at SS/3B
Hanley Ramirez still seems set to be the shortstop, and after homering in his first spring game, Luis Cruz is the overwhelming favorite to start at third. Dee Gordon is a wild card here, and in his first start Monday, Gordon drew a pair of walks and stole a base. He could catch fire and push Ramirez to third and Cruz to a utility role, but more than likely, Gordon will be packing his bags for Triple-A Albuquerque next month. That's what happens when you show erratic defense and a .280 OBP. Gordon does a good job hitting the ball on the ground, but he clearly needs to improve his bunting, as just 23.1% of this bunts went for hits versus 35% in his rookie year. If he can do that and improve his plate recognition, we'll see him back in LA at some point this year.
Dbacks #5 starter
This is still thought to be a battle between Pat Corbin, Tyler Skaggs, and Randall Delgado. Given it's still only February, it's best to put very little weight these early returns, but early advantage goes to Corbin. Skaggs was touched for four runs (two earned) on four hits over 1.2 innings in his debut while Corbin gave up no runs on one hit with four strikeouts in his first two outings. Any of the three could easily get the Opening Day nod, but if you asked me to rank them in terms of long-term keeper preference, I'd go Skaggs, Delgado, Corbin. It's not a slight on Corbin, as if he can do a better job keeping the ball in the park (1.18 HR/9IP in 2012), he could find himself as a #3 starter within the next couple years.
How good can Paul Goldschmidt be?
When filling out one's 1B rankings, if you don't have Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Joey Votto as your top three (pick the order), you've done it wrong. Beyond that, there's a case for a number of guys in the 4-10 slots, and Goldschmidt is right there, perhaps ranking as high as #4, particularly in keeper leagues. The power has always been there, as Goldschmidt clubbed 35 and 38 homers in the two years before hitting "just" 20 in 2012. Surprisingly, just half of Goldschmidt's homers came in hitter-friendly Chase Field, but that's just one indicator that there's more power to come. He also improved his contact rate year over year from 70.1% to 77.9% and now with a full year under his belt and unquestioned status at the starter at first base, I expect bigger things in 2013.
Jedd Gyorko in the lead for the second base job?
As I type this, it's Tuesday afternoon and Gyorko is 3-for-9 with a pair of homers and eight RBI on the spring. His competitor for the starting second base job, Logan Forsythe is 0-for-6. Okay, it's early, but this may also be a sign of how things could go the rest of the way. Manager Bud Black didn't exactly call his defense Gold Glove caliber, but he did praise his footwork and handling of routine balls. He'll never be Ryne Sandberg defensively, but the Padres think his offensive upside outweighs the perceived (or real?) defensive shortcomings. Gyorko batted an impressive .325/.377/.585 last year for Triple-A Tucson and tallied 30 homers overall, including the six he hit in Double-A. It's still possible that his performance will dictate his winning the job, but financial pressures could lead to his opening in Triple-A to delay his service time.
Padres rotation
We figured Casey Kelly was a near-lock for one of the five rotation spots, but that may
not be the case. Kelly's first spring outing was a bit of a disaster: 1.2 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs. I missed the game so I didn't see how he looked, but that's a rough start. Fortunately for him, Freddy Garcia was tapped for five runs (four earned) in just one inning in the same game, so Kelly probably lost little, if any, ground. There's still Tyson Ross, Eric Stults, and possibly Tim Stauffer (if healthy) as threats for a spot, so don't panic just yet if you're a Kelly owner. If I had to guess, the team's Opening Day rotation would be Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Jason Marquis, Kelly, and Stults. Other guys currently hurt to monitor include Cory Luebke (TJ surgery - possible May return), Andrew Cashner (thumb - possibly ready by April 1, but is he a starter or reliever?), and Joe Wieland (TJ surgery - not ready before August).
Aaron Hicks (OF-MIN) - Hicks was 2-for-4 with a double on Tuesday, functioning as the team's leadoff man and center fielder. He's competing with Joe Benson and probably Darin Mastroianni for the job. Benson homered in the same game, but also struck out three times. Hicks has yet to play above Double-A, but as a former first-round pick (2008), he has the talent to jump in and win the job. Hicks rebounded from a tough 201 to bat .285/.382/.459 in Double-A last year with 13 homers and 32 stolen bases. He's walked at a solid 15% clip in the minors and it's generally thought that there is more power to come. We saw some of that come last year as his HR total equaled his combined output in 2010-2011. Look for Hicks to win this job and provide plenty of value.
Bruce Rondon (RP-DET) - Of the five outs he's recorded this spring, four of come via the strikeout, so that's exactly what we look for in a closer. On the down side, he walked two batters and threw just eight of 21 pitches for strikes, giving him three walks on the spring. Unless Jim Leyland is up for having a heart attack or two during the season, he's going to want someone in the closer role with decent control. Rondon posted a subpar 5.5 BB/9 in his first three pro seasons, including seven walks in eight innings last year with the Tigers. So while the stuff is there, you will want to keep Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel on your radar as possible closers.
Domonic Brown (OF-PHI) - Brown hit his second homer of the spring Tuesday and is now 3-for-7 early on as he looks to nail down a starting OF job. Brown should have a leg up given his prospect status, but John Mayberry and Darin Ruf are other options should Brown not hit this spring. In parts of three big league seasons, Brown has hit just .236/.315/.388 over 433 at-bats. His 79% BB% and 11% walk rates aren't bad, so there are some reasons for optimism. I like Brown as a sleeper, but perhaps only in NL-only leagues.
Ryan Raburn (UT-CLE) - Raburn is probably a guy to put on your radars in deeper leagues, probably AL-only and very deep mixed formats. Raburn homered in his first three at-bats of the spring and was off to a 6-for-8 start as of Tuesday. Raburn has no clear path to regular playing time, but it's possible he could see at-bats one of the outfield corners, and perhaps at third base should Lonnie Chisenhall struggle. Raburn is a career .258/.313/.435 hitter with some pop, so he could have some short-term value should the playing time be there.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF-BOS) - Bradley has apparently impressed to the point where he could make the Opening Day roster. Shane Victorino and Jacoby Ellsbury are two locks, but left field is a bit up in the air with Johnny Gomes, Daniel Nava, and perhaps Mike Carp as the internal options. Bradley is 4-for-6 to start the spring, and though his timetable was thought to be 2014 as Ellsbury's potential replacement, he may have a chance to accelerate things. Bradley hit a leadoff-worthy .315/.430/.482 between High-A and Double-A last year, including a 0.98 EYE and 24 stolen bases. He bears watching in most formats for his upside.
Billy Hamilton (OF-CIN) - It's not going to be a long wait for Hamilton's arrival. Sure, he's just 1-for-6 with three strikeouts in the early going, but manager Dusty Baker recently praised his defense, and given the Reds have no center fielder on their major league roster, his arrival could come quickly. Ryan Ludwick, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce project as the current regulars, but once an injury strikes, Hamilton sould find himself in Cincinnati. The Reds surprisingly gave Ludwick a lucrative two-year $15 million deal, but should the 34 year-old return to his 2010-2011 production levels, he might become a very expensive fourth outfielder at some point. Hamilton of course stole 155 bases last year to set an all-time record and projects as an impact fantasy performer once he finds regular playing time.
Adam Eaton (OF-ARI) - Eaton homered and singled on Tuesday, leaving him 6-for-13 so far this spring. Eaton has never hit less than .300 or posted an OBP less than .409 in any of his minor league stops, so while he's a bit older at 24, his fantasy upside remains high. Eaton doesn't offer much in the way of power, but he should be able to hit .280 as a floor with 5-10 homes and upwards of 30 stolen bases, particularly if he leads off. With four solid outfielders in the fold, Eaton needs to get off to a good start to continue to play most days, but he's certainly not hurting his cause so far this spring. In addition to the solid AVG and OBP, Eaton has never posted an EYE less than 0.75, so he has a good chance at being at least a solid regular.
Justin Smoak (1B-SEA) - Smoak is off to a smokin' start so far this spring, homering and singling on Tuesday to leave him 5-for-9 through three games. He's expected to open the season as the team's starting first baseman, but given the acquisitions of guys like Mike Morse and Raul Ibanez, Smoak needs to get off to a good start in order to keep his job. Smoak has had over 1,200 big league at-bats to establish himself, but his .223/.306/.377 line is clearly far from adequate. His .259 BABIP SHOULD increase, but that's far from certain of course. He has at least posted an adequate 0.49 EYE in the big leagues, and at age 26, perhaps a breakout year is in store.
Wade Davis (SP-KC) - Davis a bit of a forgotten guy as the "other guy" who came to
the Royals in the Wil Myers deal. Davis tossed a pair of scoreless innings Tuesday, but he's pretty much locked into a rotation spot in pitching-starved Kansas City. Davis was a very effective reliever in Tampa Bay last year, posting a 2.43 ERA in 70.1 innings to go with an impressive 11.1 K/9 and so-so 3.7 BB/9. Davis can't be expected to maintain that sort of K rate in a starting role, but 180 innings with 130 strikeouts and an ERA in the upper 3's is very possible. He should be a solid contributor in deeper formats.
Oscar Taveras (OF-STL) - I made a point of tuning into the Cardinals game Tuesday (thank you MLB TV), solely for the point of watching Oscar Taveras. He didn't disappoint, going 3-for-5 (all singles) with two runs scored and an RBI. He's now hitting .364 this spring and easily ranks along with Wil Myers and Billy Hamilton as the top three hitting prospects in the game. Taveras doesn't turn 21 until June, but after batting .321/.380/.572, he's earned rave reviews from scouts, who consider him a lock to be a future All-Star. Taveras even improved his contact rate year-over-year from 83% to 88%. He's the total package.
