Dodgers closer situation
Given his $22.5 million contract, it's widely expected (and basically confirmed this month by manager Don Mattingly) that Brandon League will open as the team's closer. This despite Kenley Jansen strikeout out an incredible 41.5% of all batters he faced over the past two years (second only to Craig Kimbrel), a trait you certainly want in your closer. League of course lost the closer job to Tom Wilhelmsen in Seattle last year before being dealt to LA, but he pitched much better in LA, allowing just one earned run over his final 21.1 innings. Barring an awful spring, League is the guy come Opening Day, but after that, who knows. I would put Jansen at the top of my non-closer relievers cheat sheet and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Jansen finished 2013 with more saves than League.
Dodgers left side of the infield
As it stands, Hanley Ramirez is set to be the shortstop and Luis Cruz the third baseman. Don Mattingly has stated that he's comfortable defensively with Ramirez, so expect him to be the guy come Opening Day. Another scenario has Dee Gordon hitting .400 with a .500 OBP and 20 stolen bases this spring and beating out Luis Cruz. Gordon could then be the SS and Ramirez the third baseman. That said, all signs point to Gordon opening in Triple-A, gaining strength, and working on his pitch recognition. Watch him this spring though, as the door to a starting job is at least slightly ajar, and given his SB ability, he could be a huge asset in time.
Padres rotation
As of the opening of spring training, it's generally believed that three of the five rotation slots are locked down by Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, and Jason Marquis. Casey Kelly is believed to be slotted for one spot barring a terrible spring, so that leaves a slew of candidates for the final spot. These would be Eric Stults (a Petco-aided 2.92 ERA in 92.1 innings last year), veteran Freddy Garcia (5.20 ERA with the Yankees), Tyson Ross (yeah that 1.81 WHIP isn't good), perennially-injured Andrew Cashner (probably a reliever), formerly-good but injured last year Tim Stauffer, and a host of other unappealing options. Regardless of how this shakes out, whomever wins this job is probably just filler until Cory Luebke returns from Tommy John surgery, which is likely happening sometime in May. I'd guess that Stults wins this job, but it's hard to like any of these guys despite the favorable pitching environment.
Padres second base job
Padre second basemen hit a collective .251/.312/.378 last season, with Logan Forsythe accumulating the most at-bats and slightly exceeding those numbers at .269/.339/.386. Forsythe however will be challenged by Jedd Gyorko this spring. Gyorko has been primarily a third baseman in the minors, but with Chase Headley occupying that slot, Gyorko played quite a bit of second base over the second half of 2012. Why should you watch him? Well, last year's 30 homers between Double-A and Triple-A and his .325/.377/.585 Triple-A slash line, that's why. There are questions about his 2B defense, but if he proves he can handle the position this spring, it's unlikely Forsythe will block his far better bat.
Dbacks #5 starter
Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, and Wade Miley are locked into four slots, leaving one spot for one of Pat Corbin, Tyler Skaggs, and Randall Delgado. Maybe a couple guys get hurt, but this may be a rare case of having too much pitching. Anyway, this will be an all-out competition this spring that I expect Skaggs to win. He has the advantage of being left-handed, and he's certainly the most highly-touted of the competitors. Skaggs was fairly unimpressive in the big leagues last year (29.1 IP, 5.83 ERA, 21:13 K:BB in 29.1 IP), but it's likely he was a bit wore down, and given that was his age 20 season, we can overlook the small sample size. Skaggs has reportedly added 20 pounds of muscle/weight over the winter as he looks to maintain his stamina deeper into the second half.
Dbacks outfield
Out is Justin Upton and in is Cody Ross, with Jason Kubel and Gerardo Parra returning to what is quickly becoming a crowded outfield yet again. Kubel will play most days, with the occasional rest against tough left-handers. Ross is a lefty-killer, but he wasn't given $26 million to be a platoon guy. That leaves CF up for grabs between Parra and Adam Eaton. Eaton is coming off a season in which he batted a PCL-inflated .381/.456/.539, and with his speed, pitch recognition, and OBP skills, the Dbacks will give him every shot at the CF job. Expect him to win it with a nice spring. Parra will rotation in often, likely getting in the range of 300 at-bats, so his value is limited to NL-only formats. A.J. Pollock and newly-acquired Tony Campana would appear to have little value barring injury.
Logan Morrison, OF, MIA - In case it wasn't on your radar, Morrison underwent knee surgery five months ago. He's currently rehabbing, but the latest is that he won't be ready to return to the lineup until April 15. That could change, so keep an eye on his progress this spring. Morrison is coming off a .230/.308/.399 season, one perhaps impacted by the knee, so he's a bit of a bounceback candidate given he did hit 23 homers the year prior. Of course if he winds up hitting behind Giancarlo Stanton on a gutted Marlins roster, the RBIs likely won't be coming in bunches, but he's still looking like a decent buy low option.
Grant Balfour, RP, OAK - It's sounding like Balfour's recent knee surgery isn't going to prevent him from being ready for Opening Day. Whether he or Ryan Cook closes is somewhat up in the air, but all signs point to Balfour being the guy. He tossed a career-high 74.2 innings in 2012, posting a 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a solid 8.7 K/9. Balfour benefitted from a somewhat low .211 BABIP, and his walk rate actually went up a little over 2012, but even at 35, he still has the stuff to be a solid closer. It's worth noting his $4.5 million salary however, so Balfour could certainly find himself setting up for a contender come July.
Brandon McCarthy, SP, ARI - When he's healthy, McCarthy can at times be one of the better third starters in the league. Still, given his career high in innings is 170.2 and he's never made more than 25 starts in a season, it's hard to see his two-year $15.5 million deal working out well for anyone not named Brandon McCarthy. Posting ERAs of 3.32 and 3.24 in Oakland is one thing, but he's now moving to a far tougher pitching environment. His road ERAs the past two seasons were both solid at 3.66 and 3.99 and yes, no DH in the NL, but he's too frustrating for me to roster given the medical issues. His WHIP won't hurt you, but the lack of strikeouts and the injuries will frustrate.
Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE - I for one am very bullish on Kipnis this year, and with the news this week that he may be slotted third in the order after Michael Bourn and Asdrubal Cabrera, it's easy to see the second baseman approaching 100 RBI. The big question will be how his SB total is affected, as he did swipe 31 last year. Batting third I can see that number dropping slightly (25?), but I expect the RBIs to increase and just general improvement in his approach will help as well. I can see the case for slotting Kipnis as the #2-ranked second baseman behind Cano, but ahead of Kinsler and Pedroia.
Trevor Plouffe, 3B, MIN - How Plouffe responds to a breakout 2012 will be one story I'll be watching. After looking like a first-round bust for most of his career, Plouffe suddenly hit 24 homers for the 3B-starved Twins and heads to camp as the likely 2013 starter. That said, he has questions defensively, and a 78% contact rate and 0.40 EYE led to an anemic .235 average. Plouffe also hit .238 and .244 in Triple-A the past couple years, so these sort of issues aren't exactly new. It could be that a July thumb injury was a contributing factor, but expecting more than .240 this year is probably foolish.
Justin Smoak, 1B, SEA - The prize of the Cliff Lee deal, Smoak has failed to live up to expectations in Seattle. He's shown decent power the past two seasons with a 26.8 AB/HR rate, but he's slow, and EYEs of .52 and .44 have resulted in subpar performances at the plate. Smoak needs to make better contact and cut down on the strikeouts to last the year as the starter, but reportedly he will be the team's first baseman this year, at least initially. Smoak showed excellent plate discipline in the minors, so perhaps this is something he can improve on in time. With that however, the Mariners also brought in Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales, and Raul Ibanez this winter, so they have options should Smoak get off to a slow start.
Carl Crawford, OF, LAD - Crawford is already taking batting practice, with reports saying that things appear to be set for an Opening Day return. Given the nature of the injury (Tommy John), Crawford may see a few more runners scoring from second on a single to left field in April than he will in August, but at the plate, this doesn't seem like it will impact him. Don't look for Crawford to return to elite OF status, but the change of scenery and the health should result in his at least being very useful. One disturbing trend to note is his BB% trend the past few years: 7.6%, 6.9%, 4.3%, and in an abbreviated 2012, 2.4%. He'll need to reverse that quickly or find himself batting in front of the pitcher rather than after him.
Stephen Drew, SS, BOS - His brother had a respectable first four years in Boston, and now Stephen hits Beantown hoping to rebuild his value and cash next winter. Drew turns 30 in March, so in theory he's still in his prime and given his talent, we could see a bounceback season. Drew had an .810 OPS season as recently as 2010, and given how left-handed hitters can fare in Fenway Park, he appears to be in an ideal situation. He'll start over Jose Iglesias and serve as a placeholder for Xander Bogaerts should Bogaerts be able to stick at the position.
Leonys Martin, OF, TEX - Any outfielder set to accumulate playing time in Texas is worth noting for fantasy owners. Martin hit an anemic .184/.262/.395 in 46 MLB at-bats last year, but he also hit .399/.422/.610 in Triple-A and is a guy with a $15.5 million contact that the Rangers want to extract some value from. Martin will battle Craig Gentry for playing time, but if Martin hits well this spring, he'll get the job most days, with Gentry mixing in against the occasional left-hander. Martin can run a bit and he has contact rates as high as 93% in his minor league stops, so watch him closely this spring.
J.J. Putz, RP, ARI - We're starting to see the "best shape of his life" stories flow through already, with Putz reportedly coming to camp 15 pounds lighter after a new offseason diet. Putz has had back-to-back strong healthy seasons in Arizona with K/9's of 9.5 and 10.9 and BB/9's of 1.9 and 1.8. He also saw his GB% tick up a bit last year from 42.4% to 45.7%, and he added a cutter to his repertoire to mix things up. Putz is 36, but all signs point to another solid season, even if going on a diet has very little to do with whether a pitcher blows out his arm.
