Brian McCann, C, ATL - We already know McCann will miss at least the first two weeks of the season after having shoulder surgery back in October, but we really care about the other 24. The 28-year-old catcher is coming off a miserable season in which he hit .230 and slugged .399, but it seems like that can be pinned on a frayed shoulder labrum that bothered him for most of the season ... and some bad luck. McCann had a career-low .234 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Prior to last season, his lowest BABIP was .282 and his lowest batting average was .269. Most of McCann's metrics -- line drive rate, strikeout rate and groundball-to-flyball ratio -- were in line with his career numbers, and his contact rate was actually a career-high 87 percent.
B.J. Upton, OF, ATL - Upton has increased his homers in four straight seasons but had his steals drop in each of the last two. Stepping into Michael Bourn's old leadoff role, in which Bourn attempted 55 steals last season, could lead to Upton swiping 40 bags in 2013, but it would be foolish to expect more than that. Upton gets on base far less than Bourn and picks up more extra-base hits, leading to fewer steal chances. With a contact rate in the low 70s, Upton has settled in as a .240s hitter. Upton should also see his homers drop as his HR/FB ratio normalizes from 16.7 percent. Those buying Upton for a potential 30/40 season will be sorely disappointed.
Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI - Howard had 56 RBIs in 71 games, which translates to 128 per 162 games. That number would have led the National League by 13 and ranked third in the majors. Howard told the Philadelphia Inquirer that he was essentially playing on one leg last season since he had not redeveloped the muscles in his left leg after rupturing his Achilles' tendon in the 2011 postseason. That makes his 14 homers in 260 at-bats even more impressive. However, Howard struck out 99 times and had a strikeout rate of 33.9 percent. He was particularly awful against lefties, batting .173 with 45 strikeouts in 98 at-bats. Fantasy owners who draft Howard are going to have to bench him when Philadelphia faces a left-handed starter.
Roy Halladay, P, PHI - Halladay had thrown at least 220 innings in six straight seasons but a lat strain limited him to 156 1/3 in 2012, and he just wasn't himself when he was able to take the mound. Halladay posted a 3.67 K/BB, his worst in five seasons, and 1.04 HR/9, his worst since 2000. Opposing batters hit a line drive off Halladay 23 percent of the time, a career worst for the right-hander. Halladay also recorded the highest fly-ball percentage and lowest ground-ball rate of his career, and it wasn't close. The 35-year-old did improve his K/9 after returning from the injury, but he also gave up 12 homers and walked 22 batters in 84 innings.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF - Spring training doesn't officially start until Sandoval shows up out of shape. The third baseman reported to camp overweight and the team, as usual, isn't happy about it. Sandoval, of course, won the World Series MVP in October and was named the MVP of the Venezuelan League championship series in the winter. Sandoval has suffered a broken hamate bone in each hand over the last two seasons, but unlike 2011, he didn't come back and hit 18 homers after the injury; he hit seven and finished with 12 and a .789 OPS. Sandoval improved his walk rate from 6.9 percent in 2011 to 8.6 percent last season, which is a sign that the free-swinger is advancing as a hitter. However, the third baseman is too much of a ground-ball/line-drive hitter to ever reach 30 homers, especially playing half his games at AT&T Park, and he'll only hit the 25-homer plateau again if his HR/FB rate jumps back over 14 percent from 9.5 last season.
Johan Santana, P NYN - After shutting out the Dodgers through eight innings on June 30, Santana's record stood at 6-4 and his ERA at 2.76. The left-hander proceeded to go 0-5 with a 15.63 ERA over his final five starts before being shut down. Leaving Santana in for a career-high 134 pitches during his no-hitter on June 1 certainly contributed to his downfall, but so did having the lefty toss 48 innings and 722 pitches in seven starts from May 26 to June 30. It was just too heavy of a workload after Santana missed all of 2011 while rehabbing from shoulder surgery. Santana benefited from great luck on batted balls over his first 16 starts, but he also showed that he can still be a strikeout-per-inning guy in short stretches.
Matt Garza, P, CHN - It only took one live batting practice session for Garza to get injured. Cubs manager Dale Sveum said Garza has a "mild lat strain." At least it wasn't his elbow. The right-hander missed the last two months of the 2012 season with a stress reaction in his pitching elbow. The 29-year-old was an extreme fly ball pitcher with the Rays but he has reversed course and become a ground-ball inducer in his two seasons with the Cubs. A terribly unlucky 16.3 percent HR/FB led to him giving up 15 homers in 103 2/3 innings. Garza's xFIP shows that with a league average HR/FB rate, his ERA would have been 3.59 instead of 3.91. Obviously, Garza is an injury risk who even when healthy hasn't thrown more than 204 2/3 innings in a season, and he isn't going to win more than 10 or 11 games on the Cubs. But 200 strikeouts are certainly attainable since Garza has posted an 8.33 or better K/9 in three of the last four seasons.
Alex Gordon, OF, KC - Fantasy owners are going to have to decide which Gordon is for real - the one who hit 23 homers with 17 steals in 2011 or the one who only had 14 homers and 10 steals in 2012. Gordon's fly-ball rate and HR/FB both declined dramatically after holding steady for three straight seasons, so the Royals left fielder should at least see a bump up to the 18-homer range, but 12 steals seems like his ceiling. Gordon hit .307 with an .845 OPS out of the leadoff spot in 2012 and moving there for an extended period at the end of May helped revive his season. He hit .320 with an .878 OPS in his final 116 games following a move to the leadoff spot on May 27. Royals manager Ned Yost said the plan is for Gordon to stay in the leadoff spot all season, which means he should make a run at 110 runs, but the RBI opportunities will be lacking.
Homer Bailey, P, CIN - Bailey, a former first-round draft pick, finally came through with a career year that consisted of the right-hander winning 13 games with a 3.68 ERA and a no-hitter in his penultimate start of the year. Not surprisingly, the no-no came on the road, where Bailey was a stud all season. He went 9-2 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.00 WHIP away from home, compared to 4-8, 5.16, 1.50 at the Great American Ballpark. Bailey gave up 21 homers in 99 1/3 innings at home, compared to five in 108 2/3 on the road. Bailey has similar career splits - 3.78 ERA on the road, 5.13 at home.
Mike Napoli, C, BOS - Looking at Napoli's numbers, it's quite clear that the outlier is 2011, when the catcher hit .320 with 30 homers and a 1.046 OPS. Napoli's fall back to earth was steep - he hit .227 - and painful - he only played 108 games due to multiple injuries. Napoli's strikeout rate skyrocketed to 30 percent, a career worst but not far off from what he did with the Angels. Napoli's BABIP also dropped from .344 to .273. Otherwise, all of his batted ball rates were nearly identical to 2011. Even with all the strikeouts, there's still some things to like with Napoli this season. He still hit 24 homers last year and got on base at a .343 clip to boost his OPS to .812. Even with a hip issue that held up contract talks with Boston, Napoli is a better bet to play 130 games for just the second time in his career than he was with Texas since he will serve as Boston's everyday first baseman ... while still carrying catcher eligibility.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA - There are multiple 40-homer seasons in Stanton's future, maybe as soon as this season, but he might not get many chances to swing away considering Miami's talent level around him after its latest fire sale. Stanton will have to drive in Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco while being protected by Logan Morrison. At first glance, Stanton's 28-point improvement in batting average was aided by a .344 BABIP, but Stanton also increased his line drive rate from 16.3 to 22.1 percent. If he keeps pounding out line drives, and I think that he will, it will help offset a strikeout rate close to 30 percent and keep his BABIP well above .320.
Dan Straily, P, OAK - Only six pitchers posted more strikeouts in professional baseball than Straily's 222 at three different levels in 2012. However, after walking 19 with 82 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings at Triple-A, Straily walked 16 and was bombed for 11 round-trippers in 39 1/3 innings with Oakland. A .225 BABIP and .907 left on base percentage with the Athletics helped Straily keep his ERA to 3.89, but his FIP was 6.48. He'll compete with A.J. Griffin for the fifth spot in Oakland's rotation, but he has a lot to prove at the big league level after mastering the minors.
Clay Buchholz, P, BOS - Owners who drafted Buchholz or had him in September may never own him again. He went 4-2 with a 7.84 ERA in his first nine starts and 0-5 with a 5.62 ERA in his last eight, but was 7-1 with a 2.19 ERA over 12 starts in between. The key to Buchholz' 2013 season will be his command of the strike zone. The Red Sox right-hander walked 46 batters over 99 innings in his first nine and last eight starts combined, and just 18 in 90 1/3 innings in that middle 12. Buchholz also allowed just seven homers during that 12-start span, compared to 18 the rest of the season.
Carlos Beltran, OF, STL - Beltran only hit .225 with four homers and 42 strikeouts in his final 44 games of the season after clubbing 28 in his first 107. The veteran is due for an even larger regression in 2013, if he can even get through 151 games again. Beltran's strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 20 percent and his contact rate slipped to a career-low 79.5 percent last season. His fantasy value is entirely tied up in his ability to hit 30 homers, but it is doubtful he posts a HR/FB of 19.9 percent again considering his career rate is 15.8 percent.
Wilin Rosario, C, COL - Rosario has the usual home-road splits you see with most Rockies players. He hit .297 with 18 of his 28 homers at Coors Field, compared to .242 with a .722 OPS on the road. He also crushes lefties -- .348, 14 homers - but slumped to a .239 average against right-handers. The catcher is a low-contact, high-strikeout player who had 25.5 percent of his fly balls leave the park last season. He has a better shot than most at sustaining that ridiculous number since he plays at Coors Field but don't get carried away expecting 40 dingers from the Rockies backstop.
