Toronto Blue Jays
What to expect from new additions?
Jose Reyes SS (TOR) - The Blue Jays certainly made a splash this offseason, highlighted by their acquisition of Jose Reyes from Miami. Reyes is not the 60+ SB threat he once was as he has become more cognizant of his health and picks and chooses his spots to run now. The good news is he stayed healthy all of last year, appearing in 160 games. Another positive is Reyes has upped his contact rate the past two years, posting elite marks of 93% and 92.8% to go along with EYE's over 1. Those figures combined with two straight years of a 21+ LD rate make Reyes a legit .300 hitter. Sure, Reyes hit just .287 last year, but that was mostly due to an unlucky .236 singles average. That mark was his worst of the last 4 years and easily below his previous 3 year average of .262. Look for Reyes to hit around .300 this year with similar HR-SB numbers but an uptick in RS and RBI's due to a much better surrounding lineup. It's also possible we see a rise in HR-SB numbers due to a better offensive environment and more SB opportunities (assuming the singles average corrects itself Reyes will be on first base more often). Fantistics projects Reyes to hit .298 with 11 HR, 42 SB, 96 RS and 62 RBI's.
Josh Johnson SP (TOR) - Along with Jose Reyes, the Blue Jays also received ace Josh Johnson in their trade with Miami. As exciting as the prospect of the Jays adding a frontline starter is to fans such as myself, there are definitely reasons to be cautious when evaluating Johnson. First of all, Johnson is extremely injury prone. Since his rookie year in 2006, Johnson has eclipsed 200 innings just one time (2009). He has averaged just 129 innings over this span, failing to reach even 100 innings on 3 separate occasions. Usually Johnson is a nice risk-reward play, but even the performance of late raises some flags. His K% has dropped each of the past 2 seasons from 25% to 23.9% and then again down to 20.7% (his worst mark since his rookie year). Johnson also gave up a whopping 23.4 LD% to opposing hitters last year. I do think skill wise Johnson regresses towards his better career marks in terms of his K rate, but his ratios may remain more solid than elite as he makes the move to the AL East. In the past I'd be willing to spend a top 10 round pick on Johnson as his elite numbers when healthy equaled out the risk of him not pitching significant innings. This year, with the numbers when healthy shifting from elite to average, I'm not willing to draft Johnson inside the top 150 picks of a draft. Please note that I'm more bearish than the projections software, which gives good reasons to buy low on Johnson (in particular his win total should see a significant bump based on his expected win total from last year).
Tampa Bay Rays
Rookie of the Year Candidate
Wil Myers OF (TB) - In one of the big offseason trades, the Tampa Bay Rays landed top prospect Wil Myers for James Shields. Last year, in his first season of AAA at the ripe age of 21, Myers posted an impressive triple slash of .304/.378/.554. Prior to being called up to AAA, he spent 35 games at AA where he laughably slugged .739. Myers' combination of power and patience is what has scouts drooling as he posted double digit walk rates in both AA and AAA. In fact, he has never not posted a double digit walk rate at any minor league stop. Myers also hit 37 homeruns in under 600 plate appearances. Myers is not a big stolen base threat (should give you 5-10 steals) and did strike out more than 20% of the time which will make it tough for him to hit for a high average. However, that power and patience combo should have him contributing in RS-RBI-HR right out of the gate. The Fantistics projection for Myers is .268 with 22 HR, 8 SB, 66 RS and 71 RBI's. Please note that that projection is with the expectation of 455 at bats. Myers will likely begin the season at AAA. There's no doubt that with health he will be with the big club sooner rather than later, but the exact timetable for that is up in the air.
Breakout Candidate
Desmond Jennings OF (TB) - Those who spent an early round pick on Desmond Jennings last year had to be disappointed with his final fantasy stats: .246, 13 HR, 85 RS, 47 RBI's and 31 steals. Despite the disappointing campaign, I am very high on a Jennings' breakout this season. From a power perspective, there is a lot of room for growth here. Jennings' loft increased significantly, seeing his GB/FB ratio drop from 1.34 to 1.10 as his LD% increased by 2.5 percentage points and his FB rate by 2.8 percentage points. So, he elevated the ball more and made harder contact, yet his ISO dropped nearly 50 points and AB/HR rose from 24.7 to 38.8? That screams opportunity to me as does potential growth in his stolen base totals; Jennings remarkably swiped 31 bags while getting caught just twice (94% success rate). It would not be surprising to see him get more opportunities to steal this year as a result of that percentage. I would not be doing my jobif I did not point out that there are risks in drafting Jennings. His EYE dropped from a decent enough .53 to .38, which is in the danger area for some hitters. This was the result of chasing more pitches outside of the strike zone. Also, while the increased loft is a good thing long term, Jennings did post an IFFB rate almost double the previous year's mark (18.1%), which partially helps to explain why the power fell despite some growth in power indicators. Still, given Jennings' age (26), getting another year under his belt and showing good growth potential in both power and speed leads me to believe that there is more upside than downside if you are drafting Jennings at his current ADP of 81.
Kansas City Royals
Post-Hype Sleeper
Eric Hosmer 1B (KC) - I was a little wary of the hype train on Eric Hosmer last year and wrote about concerns over his high GB rate. It was one of the few times I was right as Hosmer's GB/FB ratio actually rose from 1.57 to 1.92, which is near death for a power hitter. Still, I think there's value where Hosmer is being selected this year. One of my favorite types of value draft picks is the post-hype sleeper. Sometimes we forget something simple: hitting a baseball is really, really hard, and it might take even a top prospect with a little Major League experience an adjustment period. So, I'm chalking Hosmer's sophomore slump up to an adjustment period. Keep in mind that his biggest weakness (a lack of loft) is something that players, particularly young power hitters, tend to improve on as they mature. Hosmer is only 23 YO. This reminds me of the value Jason Heyward provided last year. At a similar point in his development (entering age 22 season, third year, coming off GB rates of 55.1% and 53.9%) Heyward saw his GB% drop all the way down to 44% and all of a sudden he's a top 3-round pick this year. I don't know if Hosmer will be able to improve his loft that quickly, but I would bet on a 20-25 homer season. Also, you should keep in mind some positives from 2012. Hosmer's BB% grew from a low 6% mark to a respectable 9.4% mark, helping to eliminate one of the concerns I had with him heading into last year. This was the result of him chasing pitches at a lower clip than the previous year. He also stole 16 bases which is both really good for a 1B and somewhat remarkable given his .304 OBP (limited opportunities). Look for Hosmer to offer a really good return on where he is being drafted. In an early draft this year, I nabbed him with the 103rd pick in the draft. This is a guy with 20/20 potential who Keith Law had as a dark horse MVP candidate heading into last season. Overlook the rough sophomore season and do cartwheels if you are able to grab him around pick 100.
Change of Scenery for Big Game James
James Shields SP (KC) - We looked at one end of the Myers-Shields trade, now let's evaluate what Kansas City got from a fantasy perspective. Shields is coming off of a solid season, winning 15 games to go along with 223 K's, a 3.52 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. While the ERA grew .7 points, Shields was more or less the same pitcher as he was the year before posting a 3.24 xFIP (3.25 in 2011). He is a near fantasy ace due to his low WHIP's and solid ERA's, and his consistency in counting stats (31 wins the past 2 years, 448 K's). One of Shields' strongest assets is his durability. He has thrown over 200 innings in 6 consecutive seasons, averaging a whopping 222 IP over that span. How does the shift to Kansas City change things for Shields? Well, the first instinct fans probably have is he will win fewer games. While this is likely true, I wouldn't focus on it as wins are really tough to predict. More important is the ballpark and division Shields is going to. By far Shields' biggest weakness is his proneness to the HR ball (should note that his GB% was a career high 52.3% last year, making this less of a concern as in previous years). For his career, his ERA is .3 points higher than his xFIP as a result of a higher than normal HR/FB rate of 11.8%. According to Fangraphs Park Factors, the Royals' home park ranks as the third toughest place to hit a HR compared to the number 12 ranking for the Rays' home park. Furthermore, of the ten easiest places to hit a HR, 3 are AL East ballparks compared to just 1 AL Central park. It's also no secret that the offenses in the AL Central are not at the same level as the offenses of the AL East. The one negative about moving to KC from TB, though, is a less talented defense, which might cost Shields a little bit of WHIP. All in all, Shields is an extremely consistent pitcher whose biggest weakness (the HR ball) is being erased with his improved GB rate and change in environment. We have him as a top 15 fantasy pitcher this year, projected to throw 226 innings with 15 wins, 227 K's, a 3.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Around the League
John Jaso C (OAK) - For deeper 2-catcher leagues, I think Jaso has the potential to provide really solid value. He might just be a platoon bat, but as a lefty against righty that will give him more at bats. Also, he should put up solid across the board numbers when he does play. Believe it or not but only Carlos Ruiz (.404) had a better wOBA than Jaso (.401) against RHP amongst catchers with at least 300 plate appearances. Jaso had an outstanding EYE last season (1.10) which is in line with his career mark and consistently gets on base thanks to his elite 15.5 BB%. Those skills coupled with Jaso's high 25.4 LD rate and improving HR/FB rate (6.1 to 14.3% last year, may regress some this year) give him a high floor for a second catcher. He also runs well for a catcher as evidenced by his 5 steals in 5 attempts last year. With Jaso, you are getting high end production when he's in the lineup against RHP. That makes him a valuable commodity as a second C if you are able to platoon him with someone else. On top of that his skill set gives him a high floor, and if platoon mate Derek Norris struggles mightily (which is possible given his K rate), there's upside in the playing time department. To recap: high floor, well balanced, platoon ability, and upside. Jaso isn't an elite talent, but those are the type of qualities that make Jaso a steal at his current ADP of round 27 (15 team league).
Jason Heyward OF (ATL) - Jason Heyward is coming off of a breakout season. As I mentioned in my Hosmer write up, much of that breakout can be attributed to Heyward achieving more loft and thus allowing himself much greater power numbers. After 2 seasons of killing worms (GB rates of 55.1% and 53.9%), Heyward lowered his GB rate all the way down to 44% and not surprisingly set career highs in both LD and FB rate. Another important aspect of Heyward's game was reducing his IFFB% from 21.8% to 8.1%. Most likely the former improvement was the result of a maturing Heyward entering his prime years, and the latter improvement the result of his shoulder being healthy. Heyward did sacrifice some of his plate discipline in order for more power, posting a career worst .38 EYE (.71 and .55 the previous 2 seasons). Given Heyward's large walk rates from 2009-2011 and his reputation for pitch recognition, I think there's a chance Heyward keeps the power but has his plate discipline bounce back a little bit. The result of this for Heyward would be some average upside, and our projections software recognizes this calling for a .277 BA (an 8 point improvement from 2012).
Felix Hernandez SP (SEA) - I'll admit it: I'm concerned over a SP who has an average ERA of 2.82 over the last four seasons. As much as I want to say - don't worry, it's Felix, a drop in velocity from 95.6 mph in 2007 to 92.1 in 2012 is a big deal. Even though the Mariners denied off-season rumors about Felix having some elbow issues, it's just another red flag. Despite the drop in velocity, Felix still had elite skills last year: 2.84 FIP, 3.98 K/BB ratio (a career best). I don't expect him to fall off the map and be terrible, and chances are he will still be really good. I just don't see the value in taking a guy who is going to cost you either a really early draft pick or a lot of auction dollars when there's concern over his health and velocity. Why not take a guy who projects to have similar numbers, doesn't have the same risk and won't cost you as high of a price (Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke all come to mind)? The Fantistics projection for Felix is 222 IP with 14 wins, 208 K's, a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, which does not warrant his current ADP selection of 20th overall.
Devin Mesoraco C (CIN) - I am concerned about Mesoraco's playing time this season. Last year Ryan Hanigan posted a .283 wOBA against RHP, which when compared to Mesoraco's .256 mark actually seems okay. Mesoraco's inability to hit RHP just gives Dusty Baker one more excuse to not play a young player, which he is notorious for doing. And in Dusty's defense Mesoraco hit .212/.288/.352 in 184 plate appearances last season, which isn't exactly exciting. Mesoraco still projects to develop into a solid hitting catcher, but his inability to hit RHP and lack of projected playing time has me drafting him as nothing more than an end round flier in two catcher leagues.
Corey Hart OF (MIL) - Keep an eye on Corey Hart in drafts as it appears his timetable for returning from offseason knee injury has shrunk. Hart was originally expected to miss possibly half the season and now according to himself is aiming at an April 20th return. While players are generally overly optimistic, even a mid-May return may provide fantasy owners with added value if the rest of the league is overly cautious with drafting hurt players. Hart as developed into a consistent power threat the past 3 seasons, posting ISO's of .242/.226/.237. He has also hit an average of 29 homers a season over that span.
Rafael Furcal SS (STL) - Furcal got off to a hot start last season but battled regression and health most of the way. Unfortunately it sounds like he will start off 2013 continuing to battle his health. Furcal stated that his elbow is still hurting him a lot; he is rehabbing a torn UCL in his throwing elbow. Given this injury situation and Furcal's past (average of 397 AB's the last 3 seasons), don't draft him anticipating anything more than the 429 at bats our projections software is calling for.
Roberto Hernandez SP (TB) - Hernandez (known to most as Fausto Carmona) has a chance to win a spot in the Rays' rotation. I'm skeptical of Hernandez having much fantasy value even if he does earn a spot. He only pitched about 40 total professional innings last year. His career ERA is 4.64, and his career K% of 13.7% is about 5-6 points below the Major League average. I think there are better late round SP lottery tickets than Hernandez who has a low ceiling and a low chance of achieving it anyways.
Brett Gardner OF (NYY) - Gardner might be undervalued on draft day after missing almost the entire 2012 season due to injury. Gardner's on base skills (career 11 BB%, .355 OBP) make him a safe bet to score a lot of runs in the Yankee offense and also provides him with plenty of opportunities to show off his speed (47 and 49 steals respectively in his last 2 full seasons). Gardner has very low chase and swinging strike rates for his career, which gives him contact rate upside. It has been around 85% over his last 3 healthy seasons, so if he can inch that near 90% there's a good chance he will hit for a higher average than his career mark of .266.
