Wilton Lopez RP (HOU) - Lopez earned his third save of the season last night. I like Lopez as an underrated closer heading into last year because of his skills (7.83 K/BB ratio, 56.9 GB%) and consistency (sub-3 ERA 3 straight seasons) and the stigma of closing for Houston will hopefully make him undervalued. While there is certainly something to the fact that a bad team like Houston generates less save chances than the average team (Houston has finished dead last in saves two years in a row generating just 50 total), saves are still very random and bad teams have put up big save totals before. Plus, with so many closer situations changing this year, the safety of Lopez's skills and a lower saves ceiling may be more valuable than chasing a guy who may not have the skills but has high saves potential (i.e. Jordan Walden this season).
Chase Headley 3B (SD) - Fellow analyst Drew Dinkmeyer has been harping on me all year about what a stud Chase Headley is, and following a 2 HR performance last night I have to give Drew a hat tip. Headley now has 26 homers, 98 RBI, 77 RS, 14 steals and a .287 average. That is a monster fantasy line especially considering Headley's hitting an environment and where he was drafted. I am a little wary of a repeat, though, if Headley sticks in San Diego. Most of his improvement from last year to this year has to do with an exchange of double for homers. Last year Headley had an 8.66 extra base hit %, doubling in 7.35% of all at bats but just homering 1% of the time. This year Headley has an extra base hit % of 9.7%. He has doubled in 4.8% of at bats and homered in 4.65% of all at bats. That ratio sure has shrunk. Here is where my doubt of a repeat comes in. These are Headley's HR/FB%'s from 2008-2012: 10.7/7.6/6.4/4.3/20.3. That 20.3 number representing 2012 sure looks like an outlier and does not include last night's 2 homers yet. Sure, given age (28 YO) and Headley's doubles power in 2011 an uptick in HR/FB rate was expected, but not to this extent. Look for some of those homers to turn back into doubles or outs in 2013, still leaving Headley as a very strong fantasy player, just one we should pencil in 15-20 homers, not 25-30.
Jose Reyes SS (MIA) - Reyes ripped a 2-run triple in the top of the 10th inning yesterday to lead the Marlins to victory over the Nationals. While Reyes' 60 steal days are behind him, there is still a lot to like about the SS heading into 2013. For starters, Reyes' plate discipline has been awesome. After posting an EYE of 1.05 last year, he has followed it up with a 1.15 mark. That along with his high contact rate (92.1%), strong ISO for a speedster (.150) and high LD rate (21.8%) makes me believe Reyes healthily improves upon his .282 batting average. The skills say he is well over a .300 hitter, and I believe it. Looking at his singles averages the previous 3 years (.256/.242/.287) and comparing the to his mark this year (.236) we certainly see that some bad luck has taken hits away from Reyes. I am targeting him for .310 with 45 steals and a bump in his RS and RBI totals in 2013.
Bud Norris SP (HOU) - Daily fantasy baseball players should take advantage of Bud Norris' weaknesses today. Norris is a good K pitcher but has a proneness to the HR ball (1.25 HR/9 this year) and a tough time getting lefties out (.783 OPS against LHB for career, .790 this year). That's not good news for Norris today as he pitches in the HR friendly (6th friendliest to LH homers in 2011) Great American Ballpark. Depending on pricing, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce look like good upside plays today in the daily fantasy world.
Matt Dominguez 3B (HOU) - Dominguez ripped a game winning 3-run homer in the top of the 9th inning for the Astros off of Aroldis Chapman. Dominguez was once a top prospect but doubts about his ability to hit enough and to handle good off speed stuff dropped his stock dramatically enough that the Marlins shipped him to Houston in the Carlos Lee deal. He's got a strong glove, but a quick look at Dominguez's recent Minor League numbers show the concern with his bat. For starters, Dominguez hasn't posted a .200+ ISO since 2008 at A ball. This year he posted ISO's of .122 (78 games with Marlins AAA affiliate) and .099 (45 games with Astros AAA affiliate). He had a high contact rate and always has but did not walk much (7.3 and 6.2% of the time respectively, and Dominguez hit just a combined 9 homers. He's only 23 YO, but that is not very good for a repeat at AAA. The skill set seemingly does not translate to a fantasy worth bat considering the position (3B), so even if Dominguez has a hot September I'd keep him off your radar in standard and even most deep mixed leagues heading into 2013.
