Roy Halladay (SP - PHI): Halladay rebounded after a difficult start over the weekend in Atlanta as he limited the Reds to just 1 ER over 7 1 /3 innings on Wednesday afternoon. It wasn't exactly vintage Halladay as he scattered 8 hits, allowing a 36% LD Rate on the outing, and benefited from an 88.9% LOB%; but perhaps Halladay was due for a bit of good luck. On the season Halladay's LOB% has hovered around 70% (career 73.5%, 78+% in the NL) which has caused his ERA to remain elevated above his FIP or xFIP. While he's been a little bit better since returning from the DL (3.72 ERA post DL, 3.98 ERA pre-DL), some of the same warning signs around Halladay's peripherals have persisted. His GB Rate has hovered around 45% all season long, which is about 5 percentage points below his recent 3 year average and 9 percentage points below his career average. In addition the exchange has come at the expense of his LD Rate (above 23% in every month from May-Aug), which fortunately for Halladay owners hasn't translated into his BABIP yet (.292 this year, career .292). With the velocity down about 2 mph this year and the LD Rates consistently higher, it's fair to temper expectations from Halladay. He entered the year as a clear cut ace and the #2 starter overall in my opinion, but going forward I'm treating him more like a #2 fantasy starter than THE #2 fantasy starter. Looking ahead to next year, I think a big part of my valuation on Halladay will center around his spring training velocity. I'm concerned at 88-90 mph his GB rates and LD Rates are impacted to the point he's no longer a true #1.
Ike Davis (1B - NYM): What a strange season for Ike Davis. He battled Valley Fever concerns in spring training and legitimately didn't look right when he started the season hitting .158/.234/.273 through June 8th. As the season has worn on though, parts of Ike Davis' skill-set that had us so intrigued in 2011 (before a season-ending ankle injury) started to emerge. Davis posted a .299 ISO in June and his BB Rate started to come back as he posted an impressive 13.7% BB Rate on his way to a .926 OPS for the month. Things unraveled a bit in July as the walks faded back down to 4%, but Davis' ISO remained exceptional (.316 in July). Since the end of July though, everything has come together. Davis has posted a stellar 0.88 EYE while homering 6 times in 100 AB's and posting an OPS right around .900. With all of the skills starting to come to a head, it looks like Davis is back to the breakout player we expected before the concerns over Valley Fever eroded much of our confidence. Coming into the season I had Davis ranked as a Top 10 1B option and I think it's realistic to treat him as such going forward. He should end up being one of the better draft day bargains heading into next season. Continue to ride the strong finish with confidence.
Brian McCann (C - ATL): An ugly 2nd half is just getting worse for Brian McCann and his fantasy owners. McCann took another 0-4 on Wednesday and is now just 13-80 since the end of July with 0 extra-base hits. Before the game Braves Manager Fredi Gonzalez indicated that McCann may start to lose playing time down the stretch if his performance continues to struggle. McCann is dealing with a cyst in his shoulder that he's had to have multiple cortisone shots for and it's clear the injury is significantly impacting McCann's swing and his power production. While its hard bench name fantasy players down the stretch, McCann owners should consider alternatives given the extended slump can be directly related to an injury. In two-catcher leagues it will be difficult to find anyone that has enough upside to challenge McCann's starting spot in your lineup, but those in one-catcher formats could find some fliers. I certainly wouldn't go as far as dropping McCann, but owners should consider reserving.
Adam LaRoche (1B - WAS): LaRoche is some kind of hot right now. He launched his 4th HR of the series against the Cubs and his 5th in his last 5 games while picking up 3 more hits in the Nationals 9-1 win over the Cubs. LaRoche is now 10-18 in September with 5 HR's and 9 RBI's and is now up to .270/.342/.506 on the season. LaRoche fell out of favor in the fantasy community after an injury cut short his 2011 season and left him with some ugly numbers (.172/.288/.258 in 177 PA's). Knowing LaRoche's history of struggles in the 1st half of the season and seeing many of his peripherals in terms of zone command were in place, he made one of the more predictable bounce-back candidates. LaRoche had averaged about 25 HR's and 90 RBI's over the previous 3 healthy seasons and while he's already topped that this year, it's a reminder that veteran players with extended track records often rebound after a down year and provide nice draft day values. Guys like Adam LaRoche, Alex Rios, and Shin Soo Choo all proved it once again in 2012.
Wily Peralta (SP - MIL): The Brewers top pitching prospect got his first major league start last night and turned in a start that highlights some of the strengths and weaknesses in Wily Peralta's current arsenal. Peralta flashed the big velocity, ranging in fastball velocity from 95-98 mph, but also showed sub-par command; walking 4 and throwing just under 60% of his pitches for strikes. While the stuff was great, Peralta often worked from behind and as a result struggled to generate swings and misses (just 7 in 92 pitches - 7.6%). The final line (6 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 ER, 3 K) was enough for Peralta to pick up his first major league win, but also was enough to caution fantasy owners about getting too excited for the top prospect. Peralta has a career 4.0 BB/9 at the minor league level and was at 4.8 BB/9 at AAA this year. His 1.58 WHIP at the AAA level this year shows the 23 year old still has plenty to learn as a pitcher before he's ready to make big contributions at the big league level. While Peralta has some nice prospect pedigree he's best left on the waiver wires in 2012.
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